GDB 28.0: Capital Punishment (6pm MT, SNW)

Photo credit:Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

3 years ago

Usually, the Edmonton Oilers and Ottawa Senators would need three full NHL seasons to play each other six times, but this isn’t a normal season and tonight they battle for the sixth time in 28 games. For years the Oilers were unable to consistently beat teams below them in the standings. Granted, many years, there weren’t many teams below them, but in the seasons where there were teams below them in the standing they struggled to play well against them.

That has not been the case this season.

Edmonton is 3-1 against Calgary, 3-1 against Vancouver and 5-0 against Ottawa. They’ve done a good job of beating the teams they are better than. And that needs to continue tonight.

The Senators have struggled when playing games that start later than 7 p.m. ET. They are 1-9 in those games.

Date ET Start Result
March 8th @ EDM 9 p.m. 3-2 loss
March 7th @ CGY 9:30 p.m. 4-3 SO win
March 4th @ CGY 9 p.m. 7-3 loss
Feb 11th @ WPG 8 p.m. 5-1 loss
Feb 2nd @ EDM 10 p.m. 4-2 loss
Jan 31st @ EDM 9 p.m. 8-5 loss
Jan 28th @ VAN 10 p.m. 4-1 loss
Jan 27th @ VAN 8 p.m. 5-1 loss
Jan 25th @ VAN 10 p.m. 7-1 loss
Jan 23rd @ WGP 10 p.m. 6-3 loss

Edmonton will look to continue that trend this evening. It won’t be easy, as the Senators play hard. They are inexperienced, and don’t have the elite offensive firepower of the Oilers, but in the past three weeks they have beaten Montreal and Calgary twice, and Toronto and Winnipeg each once. Since January 30th they are 8-7 against the rest of the North and 0-5 against the Oilers.

The Oilers might simply be a bad matchup for the Senators, but that is true only if the Oilers play up to their capabilities. They didn’t give up very many chances to the Senators two nights ago, and if they can play that solid defensively again they should win. Edmonton created some good chances on Monday, but didn’t finish some of their best chances. I’d like their finish to improve tonight.

The RNH line didn’t generate much on Monday and they are capable of producing more. It is unfortunate Kyle Turris is in COVID protocol after playing his best game of the season. He made some really good plays with the puck and set up Alex Chiasson, Gaetan Haas and Jujhar Khaira for really good scoring chances. Patrick Russell doesn’t possess the same play making ability.

LINEUP…

Oilers

Draisaitl – McDavid – Yamamoto
Ennis – RNH – Puljujarvi
Shore – Khaira – P.Russell
Neal – Haas – Chiasson

Nurse- Barrie
Lagesson – Larsson
Russell – Bear

Smith

Kyle Turris is out due to an abundance of caution and is on the COVID protocol list. My sources tell me he hasn’t had a positive test, but was in close contact with someone who did. So he will be re-evaluated on a day-to-day basis. Josh Archibald is still out as well. I think we will see Patrick Russell recalled from the Taxi-squad and William Lagesson will play in place of Caleb Jones.

Edmonton is entering its busiest stretch of the season, and I think you will see Dave Tippett use many different players. Starting tonight they play 12 games in 20 days, including five games in seven days starting on Friday. The Oilers have three sets of back-to-back games so they will need both goalies, and we will see all eight D-men get in games and likely close to 15 or 16 forwards with Zack Kassian likely returning this weekend.

Senators

Tkachuk – Norris – Batherson
Stützle – White– Dadonov
Dzingel – Tierney – Brown
Paul – Anisimov – Watson

Chabot – Zaitsev
Reilly – Zub
Brannstrom – Gudbranson

Murray

The Senators juggled all four of their lines. DJ Smith is looking for a some more creativity tonight after the Senators generated very little on Monday.

Matt Murray draws back in goal for the Senators. His last seven starts have produced significantly different numbers. He is 5-2 in those games, which is the most important stat, but his Sv% and overall play has varied significantly.

February 21st: Beats Montreal stopping 30 of 32 for a .938Sv%.
February 23rd: Defeats Montreal stopping 32 of 36 for a .889Sv%.
February 25th: A victory over Calgary stopping 29 of 30 for a .967Sv%
February 27th: Loss to Calgary and stops 27 of 33 for a .818Sv%.
March 1st: Defeats Calgary stopping 27 of 28 for a .964Sv%.
March 4th: Loss to Calgary. Allows four goals on 11 shots (.636Sv%) in 20 minutes.
March 7th: Defeats Calgary stopping 31 of 34 for a .912Sv%

Every second start he’s been over .912sv% or better, but if that trend continues then tonight he post a .889sv% or lower. When Murray has been on, he’s been good, but he hasn’t been able to string together many consecutive solid performances.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From SensChirp.ca:

They came up a goal short on Monday night but that was an effort the Ottawa Senators can be proud of.
Unlike some of the early-season debacles in Edmonton, the Senators were right there until the final buzzer. In fact, they took it the Oilers for most of the third period and probably deserved a better fate. Unfortunately, that’s not really how hockey works. You don’t always get the result you deserve.
The Senators will look for their first win of the season against the Oilers on Wednesday night.
Ottawa has dropped five straight games against Edmonton and while the last few games have been far more competitive, including the last two which were decided by a single goal, the Senators want to finally end up on the winning end of one of these match-ups.
There has been plenty of juggling among the forwards in the last few games including in-game adjustments, as the Head Coach looks for chemistry up front. After a few games playing in what was a more defensive role with Chris Tierney and Connor Brown, Brady Tkachuk gets a look on the team’s top line with Josh Norris and Drake Batherson.
That line is going to be a handful for the Oilers tonight.

TONIGHT…

Photoshop: Tom Kostiuk

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers defeat Ottawa for the sixth straight game skating away with a 4-2 victory.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Tyson Barrie picks up an assist and for the the fourth time in his career he has 20 points in the first 28 games of the season. If he scores two points tonight he matches his career best 21 points in the first 28 games of the season which he did in 2017/2018 and 2018/2019.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: For the first time in his career Yamamoto scores a goal in three consecutive games as he tallies his eighth of the season.

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