GDB 30.0: Need. To. Win. Full Stop. (7:30pm MT, SNW)
By baggedmilk
4 years agoHappy Wednesday, friendly Nation citizens! Here we are with a fresh edition of the GDB to get ourselves ready for tonight’s must-win (in my opinion) matchup between the @Edmonton Oilers and the Ottawa Senators.
Before I get started on today’s GDB can we all just agree that this is a game that the Oilers absolutely have to win? Not only are the Senators hot garbage and likely to be fishing for the NHL’s top pick come June, but they’re currently riding a five-game losing streak that the Oilers need to find a way to extend. We know there are no gimme games in the NHL, every team can win on any given night, the Oilers need to approach this thing like they’re going up against one of the league’s best. As far as I can see, based on our high-end talent and way this season has gone in general, this is one of those games where the boys need to flex and beat up on a squad that’s scraping the bottom of the NHL standings barrel. To put it another way, I refuse to sit through another three-hour chunk of my life where the Oilers play down to their competition and the pain from the disappointing effort fills our lives with rage and dread. Even thinking about the possibility of this bothers me. DON’T YOU MAKE US ALL ANGRY AGAIN, YOU HEAR ME?! Alright, cool, let’s move on.
Veiled threats and potential rage aside, I cannot overstate how important these types of games are for the Oilers to win. By my count, they’ve already left at least six points on the board against teams that they should probably beat (Detroit, LA, Minnesota), and I sure as hell hope that they’re doing whatever they can to make sure they don’t suffer the same outcome against Ottawa. I watched some of their game against the Canucks last night and they’re truly a special flavour of awful — it’s a ‘turd sandwich, hold the mayo’ kind of stuff. I don’t know about you guys, but I’m more of a Royale with Cheese kinda guy and I refuse to accept anything less than a quality sandwich against the helpless Senators. That said, I think we can all remember too many instances where we’ve been hurt before in these types of situations, and that makes me feel the need to remind the Oilers to make sure that they’re paying attention to every detail on every shift and not looking ahead at the next game or else this thing could go sideways.
Tonight’s game marks the first of two meetings between these two clubs with the second not coming until March. As I’ve been beating to death this whole time, these are two points that the Oilers need to tuck away in the bank because they’ll probably be invaluable when playoff seeding time rolls around.
THE NUMBERS
| OILERS | SENATORS | |
| RECORD | 17-9-3 | 11-16-1 |
| WIN/LOSS STREAK | W1 | L5 |
| LAST 10 GAMES | 5-4-1 | 4-6-0 |
| GOALS FOR | 91 | 71 |
| GOALS AGAINST | 84 | 89 |
| POWER PLAY% | 32.5 | 9.0 |
| PENALTY KILL% | 87.1 | 81.8 |
| AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 28.9 | 30.4 |
| AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 31.7 | 32.5 |
| TEAM SAVE% | .910 | .903 |
| CORSI FOR% | 48.01 | 48.42 |
| PDO | 1.003 | 0.997 |
| TEAM SHOOTING% | 8.87 | 7.81 |
| EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 49.19 | 51.85 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (fancies at 5×5)
LINEUPS…
Oilers
Neal – McDavid – Archibald
Khaira – Draisaitl – Gagner
Nygard – Sheahan – Chiasson
Granlund – Haas – P. Russell
Khaira – Draisaitl – Gagner
Nygard – Sheahan – Chiasson
Granlund – Haas – P. Russell
Klefbom – Larsson
Nurse – Bear
K. Russell – Persson
Nurse – Bear
K. Russell – Persson
Koskinen
Yesterday, the Oilers recalled Joel Persson while re-assigning @Caleb Jones to Bakersfield yesterday, and I’ll be curious to see if the six games in Bakersfield helped him settle in a little bit more. While with the Condors, Persson registered a goal and four assists and my hope is that putting up a few points in the AHL helped him gain some confidence. Outside of a few bad pinches here and there, I thought that Caleb Jones was reasonably steady but clearly the coaching staff feel as though he’ll be better served down on the farm.
Senators
Tkachuk – Brown – Duclair
Paul – Pageau – Brown
Namestnikov – Anisimov – White
Chlapik – Tierney – Ennis
Paul – Pageau – Brown
Namestnikov – Anisimov – White
Chlapik – Tierney – Ennis
Chabot – Hainsey
Borowiecki – Zaitsev
Brannstrom – Demelo
Borowiecki – Zaitsev
Brannstrom – Demelo
Hogberg
Who are most of these people? I refuse to believe that Marcus Hogberg is a real person.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
The way the Red Wings are playing right now, 30th might be rock bottom for the Senators.-While the big team has struggled a bit lately, things are trending upward for the Belleville Senators. They beat Binghamton and Hershey over the weekend and have now won five straight and seven straight on the road. After a sluggish start, the BSens have crawled back into a playoff spot in the AHL’s North Division. In a season where the NHL team is destined to miss the playoffs, it would be a huge boost for the organization to find their way into the post-season at the AHL level. That experience will make a huge difference down the line.-Jean Gabriel Pageau will be sad to see the month of November go. With his goal on Saturday in Calgary, Pageau finished the month with a ridiculous 11 goals in 16 games. He became the first Senators to score that many goals in a month since Daniel Alfredsson scored 13 back in 2005. He’s obviously not going to be able to sustain that 30.6% shooting percentage the rest of the way but it’s a pretty good indication of what Pageau can do in a more offensive role. Still no word on a contract extension for Pageau but rumour has it Pierre Dorion has at least had an initial conversation with his agent. How the Senators handle this situation is going to be one the most intriguing story-lines to follow this season.
TONIGHT…
Game Day Prediction: Despite being on separate lines, the Oilers get a big game from the dynamic and it powers them to a 4-1 victory.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Despite the game being played in Edmonton, Eugene Melnyk complains to a local scribe about the lack of Senators fans at the Canadian Tire Centre in Kanata for tonight’s matchup.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Eugene Melnyk takes to his burner account on Twitter to complain about the Oilers’ jerseys and how the Sens look so much better on TV. He then tweets about the 2019 Sens socks that are now available for Christmas.
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