GDB 21.0: Mile High City
By Jason Gregor
7 years ago
(photoshop: @isuckatpicking)
We love HOME games; have Liquor Depot delivery in under an hour. Click, pick, sit back and watch the game.
The Oilers fly into the Mile High City with lofty expectations. A solid beginning to the season has them looking down at everyone in the western conference except Chicago and St. Louis. They should be satisfied with their 23 points, but not comfortable as Anaheim is one back, while San Jose and Los Angeles are two points behind.
Since the NHL switched to two divisions in each conference, 87.5% of western conference teams (21 of 24) who were in a playoff spot at the quarter mark of the season made the playoffs. Each year one team fell out of a playoff spot over the final 3/4 of the season.
Last year the Jets were in eighth today, but Anaheim, after their atrocious start, bumped them out. In 2015, LA was seventh and missed, while the Jets jumped up from ninth to make it. In 2014, Phoenix (now Arizona) was in fourth spot (14-4-3), but they finished ninth, two points behind Dallas who sat in ninth place at the quarter mark.
The quarter mark in the NHL season won’t officially arrive until after Thursday’s games, so tonight gives the Oilers one final chance to cement the playoff odds even more in their favour.
The Avalanche is another team the Oilers should beat. I’m sure it is still a tad odd to read that phrase. Oilersnation isn’t used to being favoured in games, and while no team is an easy win, if the Oilers play to their strengths they currently have a better overall roster than the Avalanche.
Colorado is 9-9-0 this season. They are undefeated in OT, 3-0, but they have been outscored 49-39. I’m a big believer in GF-GA ratio. Only once in the past six 82-games seasons has a western conference team made the playoffs without a positive GF/GA ratio (Nashville was even, 225-225, in 2010).
Colorado is currently -10, while Edmonton is +7.
Colorado is 29th in GF with 39. Edmonton is 6th with 58.
The Oilers have 41 EV goals, while the Avs have 24.
In GA Avs sit 14th at 49 and the Oilers are 16th at 51. Edmonton’s offence has been much better. In their previous 14 games the Avalanche scored four goals once. The Oil is coming off back-to-back wins where they scored five goals both nights.
I know coaches despise it, but tonight is a game in which I’d feel comfortable exchanging scoring chances with the Avs. Matt Duchene has been dangerous with seven goals in 14 games, while Rene Bourque is second in goals with five.
The Oilers have six players with 5+ goals. Colorado has two. The Avs have 24 EV goals in 18 games, so if the Oilers stay disciplined and play smart, they should have a very good chance to win.
LINEUP
No lineup changes so Benoit Pouliot, Mark Letestu and Eric Gryba will sit out a third consecutive game. The Oilers have played well, and no player has stood out in a negative way to deserve a seat in the pressbox.
I’ve noticed some suggesting Pouliot is a better player than Matt Hendricks and he should play ahead of him. Pouliot is more productive, no doubt, but is he more effective in a fourth line role? Pouliot has played higher up the lineup for many years, and it is more difficult for some players to stay in the game while playing fewer minutes. He did it earlier in his career, so maybe it won’t be an issue at all.
It is hard to argue Pouliot hasn’t been a more effective NHL player, but this isn’t about who is best all-time, it is about the current situation. Sometimes a coach goes with his gut, a hunch or simply sticks with a winning lineup. Just because the stats suggest you should never start a goalie on back-to-back nights, some coaches still go with their gut, like Lindy Ruff did earlier this year against the Oilers.
Coaching isn’t just about playing the odds. There are many factors and right now I sense McLellan doesn’t want to take out players who haven’t struggled for an extended period of time just to get Pouliot or Letestu back in.
I’m sure Pouliot will be back in the lineup soon, and I won’t be surprised if he plays well. He set his career high, 36 points, in 2013/2014 with the Rangers. That was the same season he had a career-high 14 game pointless streak. He has to bide his time, but when he gets back in the lineup he needs to produce like he has the past two seasons. His sitting in the pressbox is not a sign the team has giving up on him. He was struggling and deserved a night off. The Oilers finally have healthy competition, which is a very good thing.
Avalanche
QUICK HITS…
- Tyson Barrie is off to a slow start, for him, offensively. He’s on pace for 36 points, which is well below the 49 and 53-point campaigns he had the previous two seasons. We heard many rumblings about he and Patrick Roy not seeing eye-to-eye, so it is interesting to me to see his offensive totals down so much without Roy behind the bench. It is only 18 games, so he could easily rebound, but it is a pretty significant dip in production for him.
- McDavid has scored a goal in two of his last 15 games and he still leads the NHL in points. One of those games he buried three, but you wonder what his numbers will look like in the future when his shot becomes more lethal. I still believe he’ll score 130 points in one of the next five seasons.
- Mikko Rantanen finds himself on the Avs top line right now. The young Finn played in the AHL at 18 last year and produced 60 points in 54 games after going pointless in nine NHL games. He has 2-4-6 so far this year and according to reports out of Colorado he’s looked quite good. The year in the AHL helped him more than it hurt him.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
The Oilers shook up their team this offseason, trading away two of their four number one overall draft picks. In addition to that, the Oilers named their most recent number one overall pick, Connor McDavid their captain, making him pass Gabe Landeskog as the youngest captain ever named in NHL history. While a collar bone injury limited McDavid to just 45 games in his rookie season last year, the generational phenom has shown people just what they missed last season so far in his sophomore campaign. With 24 points and 16 assists in 20 games, McDavid leads the league. The kid has put the Oilers on his 19-year-old shoulders and he has the them in first place in their division for the first time in a long time.
TONIGHT
(photoshop: @TomKostiuk)
GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Orange and Blue win their third straight downing the Avalanche 4-1.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Eberle scores. He has ten goals and 22 points in 26 games versus the Avs. He finally had some good chances last game, which usually is a sign a player is about to bury one.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Caggiula picks up another point and starts his NHL career with a three-game point streak. None of the Oilers’ previous top picks were able to score in their first three games.
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