GDB 31.0: FLY BOYS

7 years ago

After spending months (!!!!) in first place, or close, the Edmonton Oilers are in a five-team race for three or four positions. For the diehard fan, a playoff race was the goal, but are you ready for a four-month playoff chase? This could be the stuff of legends.

STANDINGS, OCTOBER 30

This is end October, and the one we should consider framing. Opening week wins against Calgary (twice!) and Vancouver came as manna from heaven for the fan base. Edmonton rode Connor McDavid and goaltending from Cam Talbot to a brilliant start, but injuries and a leveling off by the goalies had Edmonton looking a little less impressive one month later.

STANDINGS, NOVEMBER 30

A 5-8-2 record month to month allowed California to get close, but Calgary, Vancouver and Arizona remained distant bells. Injuries, difficulty of schedule and some galling stumbles marked this month, but things like possession and goal differential remained strong.

STANDINGS, DECEMBER 11

Just two weeks later, after going 2-2-3, Edmonton sits in fourth place in the division. What happened? Well, other teams got hot, and the Oilers lost some games they should have won (Buffalo) or tied (Philadelphia). The possession numbers remain solid, and the Oilers still have the league’s leading scorer, and best goal differential in the division.

STATE OF THE UNION

This morning, Edmonton sits at No. 7 in the Western Conference, if the playoffs started today the club would play division champion Calgary Flames. However, the truth is this: The Pac-7 is not a strong division, and it is up for grabs—especially considering the plodding pace being presented by the California teams.

There is a window of opportunity here, but the Oilers have some issues in terms of chasing the playoff spot. An uncertain backup goalie situation, a tremendous number of injuries on defense, a right wing group that has some substantial potential but remains unproven, the list is pretty long.

The best chance for Edmonton? Same as it was in October, Connor McDavid and Cam Talbot. I do think we can start talking about Matt Benning as a quality addition at this point—Edmonton is adding bona fide talents this season.

LINEUPS

Oilers

Jets

Lineups (subject to change) are courtesy of DailyFaceoff.com

NOTES

Connor McDavid and Drake Caggiula have played together only 36 minutes at 5×5. You can’t possibly use that as any evidence of anything, but the information flowing from those 36 minutes is interesting. McDavid has a point (assist) in those 36 minutes and five shots! His Corsi for 5×5 is 61 percent, but the pool is so shallow we can’t run with it. Caggiula has an assist and one shot. Something to follow, if the duo stays together.
Brandon Davidson has to be close now, his return could happen at any time. Question: Who would you take out of the lineup? Matt Benning? Not a chance. At this point the answer is Dillon Simpson, but what happens when Darnell Nurse comes back? Among Andrej Sekera, Oscar Klefbom, Adam Larsson, Kris Russell, Darnell Nurse, Matt Benning and Brandon Davidson, who sits? Is this what real depth looks like?
In the last six games, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is 2-3-5, Benoit Pouliot is 2-1-3 and Jordan Eberle is 1-5-6. That trio could help push Edmonton into the playoffs if they can form a strong offensive line and help with the heavy lifting. Seems they are coming around after a slow start (for some).

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING

Jeremy Wiebe, Jets Nation: Paul Maurice juggled his lines and yet again, he couldn’t find the right formula. Maurice has used injuries, a tough schedule and bad luck as excuses but at some point, the finger will be pointed at him. The fans (as you will see shortly) are getting angry and starting to warm up the coaching hot seat. Will management heed the fans call?
Source

TONIGHT

(photoshop: @TomKostiuk)

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The Jets come out flying, and physically take charge of the game. Patrik Laine scores twice in the first period, Dustin Byfuglien floods the ice with Oilers forwards sprawled everywhere, and fans are pissed after 20.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The second period is more of the same, as Edmonton looks staggered on the first home game after the road trip. Winnipeg dominates, but cannot score.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Winnipeg blows their brains out with dumb penalties. Edmonton scores twice on the power play by the middle of the third period and then snipes a 5×5 goal with six minutes left. An empty netter makes this 4-2 Oilers, with the Jets so mad at Alberta they fly home without the plane.