The Pacific Division is the toughest in the NHL.

It is home to three of the top-six teams in the NHL in terms of points percentage all season, however, in the last 30 games Edmonton, Vegas and L.A. have three of the four best records. No one is gaining or losing ground. Winning the division and avoiding the other two teams in the first round could be a huge advantage in the playoffs.

Six teams in the NHL have 40+ points in their last 30 games.

Washington went 19-6-5 for 43 points.

Edmonton and Vegas went 20-8-2 for 42 points.

L.A. (19-8-3) and Colorado (20-9-1) each had 41 points.

Toronto went 20-10-10 for 40 points.

Over the last 20 games not much has changed in the Pacific.

Edmonton is 15-4-1 for 31 points.

Vegas is 15-5 for 30 points.

L.A. is 14-4-2 for 30 points.

The last 10 are also close.

Edmonton is 7-2-1 for 15 points.

Vegas is 7-3 for 14 points.

L.A. is 6-2-2 for 14 points.

Since November 1st these three teams have been incredibly close. Their head-to-head matchups might be the difference in who gets home ice.

L.A. defeated the Oilers in overtime on December 28th, and they meet tonight and twice in April. Edmonton faces Vegas once more on April 1st, while the Kings host Vegas at the end of March.

Edmonton has owned L.A. in the playoffs for the past three seasons. They beat them in seven games in 2022, six games in 2023 and five games last spring. L.A. would love to avoid a fourth-consecutive meeting. The main reason is that they don’t have an answer for the Oilers’ special teams. In 18 games vs. the Kings, the Oilers’ PP was a ridiculous 45.8 percent the past three playoff seasons. They scored 25 goals on 55 chances. In their other 35 playoff games the PP was 28 of 109 for 25.7 percent. Still very good, but their PP murdered the Kings. They were 37 percent in 2022, 56.3 percent in 2023 and 45 percent last year. It didn’t matter, and in their only game this season the PP was 50 percent going 1-for-2.

The Oilers respect the Kings a lot, but if you gave them a polygraph, I guarantee they’d all admit they don’t fear L.A.. They are very confident they could win. I doubt L.A. feels the same. Granted, the Kings have changed their system this season — they no longer play the boring 1-3-1 — but defensive play is still their calling card. The Kings are tied with Winnipeg for the lowest GA/GP at 2.45. Edmonton is 10th at 2.79. The Kings’ offence is solid, sitting 13th at 3.03 GF/GP, but they still prefer to win low-scoring games.

The Oilers have shown they can play a defensive game, and their top scorers are better than L.A.’s so eventually, they break through. That recipe hasn’t changed, and the Kings’ power play hasn’t actually gotten worse this season.

The Kings’ PP is 29th (15%) on the season. It is 16.1% in their last 30 games, 16.2% in their last 20 games and 11.1% in their last 10. It isn’t improving. Maybe they miss Drew Doughty, but Brandt Clark has 4.34 P/60 on the PP this year compared to Doughty’s 4.54 last year and last year the Kings scored 56 PP goals. Doughty had 20 points. This year they’ve only scored 15 goals and Clark seven points. He’s been involved in way more Kings goals.

Their PP chances have dropped from 3.12/game last year down to 2.50. Their shot rate is almost identical, but Kevin Fiala has three goals compared to 12 last season. Pierre-Luc Dubois is gone (seven goals on second/first unit last year). Kopitar only has 10 shots on goal on the PP. Quentin Byfield only has one goal on 11 shots. Their PP has become stagnant, and they don’t have a great finisher. Fiala is their main triggerman, and he has five goals after scoring 12 last season, but he isn’t a top-end finisher. Until the Kings get one, I don’t see how they can match up in a seven-game series v. the Oilers.

But they are far from an easy out, and they won’t be tonight.

— The Oilers are 10-1 in their last 11 home games and outscored their opposition 45-25. The Kings are 5-4-2 in the last 11 road games and are even in GF-GA at 28.

— McDavid (21 points) and Draisaitl (20 points) have been great on home ice, but more so at EV with 17 and 15 points compared to four and five on the PP. The Oilers have only averaged 2.64 PPO/game at home in that span. They are seven-for-29 (24.1%) in that span. The PP on home ice is improving after being 16% in the team’s first 11 home games.

— Draisaitl has a point in 16 of their last 17 games. He’s had 11 multi-point games and tallied 14 goals and 31 points. He enters tonight leading the league in goals with 31 and he is second in points with 63, five back of Nathan MacKinnon with two games in hand. His quest for the Hart and Art Ross is well within reach.

RNH – McDavid – Brown
Podkolzin – Draisaitl– Arvidsson
Janmark – Henrique – Hyman
Kapanen –  Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Kulak – Emberson
J.Brown

Skinner

Stuart Skinner is back in goal, while Josh Brown draws in for Derek Ryan. Jeff Skinner will sit out his second-consecutive game. Kris Knoblauch wants more size against L.A. and has opted to play Brown. He will also get to play McDavid and Draisaitl the odd shift with Kapanen and Perry, and those two have the third and fourth highest goals/60 rate among Oilers forwards at 5×5 trailing only Leon Draisaitl and Corey Perry.

Some people will overreact and be angry over Brown being in the lineup, but it is about matchups and the coach wants some size. Most of Knoblauch’s decisions over the years have worked out. I don’t expect to see Josh Brown in the playoffs. The odd regular season game is fine. It isn’t something to get to worked up over.

Turcotte – Kopitar – Kempe
Foegele – Byfield – Moore
Fiala – Danault – Laferriere
Jeannot – Lewis

Anderson – Gavrikov
Moverare – Spence
Englund– Clarke
Burroughs

Kuemper

The Kings will also dress 11-7. Trevor Moore will play with Warren Foegele and Quinton Byfield tonight. Tanner Jeannot was on that line in place of the injured Brown in the last meetings between these two teams and that line dominated the Oilers. It was a rare off-night for the Adam Henrique line. I think that is another factor in Knoblauch’s lineup choices. He wants Mattias Janmark on the left wing on that line.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Edmonton gets some revenge after blowing a two-goal lead in L.A. last month. They win 4-2.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Leon Draisaitl scores a goal.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Josh Brown and Jeannot have a spirited scrap that gets the crowd involved.