GDB 53.0: HOME COOKING…BAD
By Jason Gregor
10 years ago
The Oilers have played 23 home games. They have only won eight of them.
Last year they won 9 of 24 home games. The last season the Oilers and their fans left Rexall place in a good mood more often than a bad one was in 2007/2008 when the Oilers won 23 of 41 home games.
Since October 2008, the Oilers have played 213 home games and they’ve won 86.
The Oilers have 18 home games remaining this season, and hopefully for their sakes and the fans, they can find a way to start winning on home ice.
When the Oilers finished dead last in 2010 they were at least competitive at home winning18 and losing 23 (OT loss is still a loss for me), so there is no reason this team shouldn’t be able to match 18 wins or better it.
When the Oilers finished dead last in 2010 they were at least competitive at home winning18 and losing 23 (OT loss is still a loss for me), so there is no reason this team shouldn’t be able to match 18 wins or better it.
It won’t be easy with 14 of the 18 games against western opponents.
They play the Kings, Ducks, Sharks and Flames twice and the Coyotes, Avalanche, Wild and Canucks once. The Senators, Rangers, Islanders and Sabres will visit from the East. Ten of those games will be against teams currently in the playoffs, but if the Oilers are going to start improving eventually they need to be a few playoff caliber teams, especially at home.
The Oilers won’t make the playoffs, but they need to start building a foundation for the future, and one of those bricks needs to be molded into a good home team.
Of the current 16 playoff teams, only the Rangers have a losing record at home winning 12 of 28. Of the 14 teams not in the playoffs only three, Washington, Phoenix and Dallas have won than half of their home games. Winning at home doesn’t guarantee you a playoff spot, but it increases your chances significantly, especially if you can be a dominant team at home.
The Oilers need to start creating winning habits at home, and since I highly, highly doubt Dallas Eakins gets fired at the end of the season, it is up to him and his team to start finding a winning formula on home ice.
HITS…
After Tuesday’s loss to Vancouver Dallas Eakins made reference to "the perfect game."
Do you know what the perfect game is? The perfect game is no hits. Do you know why that is? It’s because you have the puck. You don’t have to hit anybody; you have the puck.
That statement got some people excited. Many believe hitting doesn’t help you win games, mainly due to the reason Eakins outlined above. In theory that makes sense, however, practicality and reality often offer up different outcomes.
There is no such thing as the perfect game, no hits, and many successful teams use their physical play to help them win. Here is a hit chart for this season. Playoff teams are in bold.
| Hits | Team | Hits/game |
| 1768 | Toronto | 33.3 |
| 1662 | Los Angeles | 31.9 |
| 1569 | Ottawa | 30.7 |
| 1519 | Columbus | 30.3 |
| 1397 | Winnipeg | 26.8 |
| 1323 | Phoenix | 26.4 |
| 1263 | Buffalo | 25.7 |
| 1263 | Colorado | 25.7 |
| 1300 | Pittsburgh | 25.4 |
| 1313 | Philly | 25.2 |
| 1232 | Boston | 25.1 |
| 1307 | NYR | 24.6 |
| 1298 | NYI | 24.5 |
| 1264 | Anaheim | 23.8 |
| 1181 | Washington | 23.6 |
| 1153 | Carolina | 23 |
| 1178 | Edmonton | 22.6 |
| 1093 | Florida | 21.8 |
| 1076 | Calgary | 21.1 |
| 1048 | St.Louis | 20.9 |
| 1047 | Montreal | 20.9 |
| 1049 | New Jersey | 20.5 |
| 1030 | Dallas | 20.1 |
| 1029 | Tampa Bay | 20.1 |
| 1030 | Nashville | 19.8 |
| 1015 | Vancouver | 19.5 |
| 963 | San Jose | 18.8 |
| 1001 | Detroit | 18.5 |
| 898 | Minnesota | 16.9 |
| 888 | Chicago | 16.7 |
I think we all agree that hit charts from building to building can be subjective. The Leafs have 1099 hits in 28 home games, but only 669 in 25 road games. Are they magically that much more physical at home or do the statisticians in Toronto consider every rub out a hit?
That being a team like Columbus has virtually the same amount of hits on the road as they do at home. I’d say it gives us a general idea of which teams are more physical than others.
The chart proves that some teams win by being more physical, while others don’t need to.
Nine of the top-14 teams in hits are in the playoffs, while seven of the 11 teams with the fewest hits are currently in the postseason.
Nine of the top-14 teams in hits are in the playoffs, while seven of the 11 teams with the fewest hits are currently in the postseason.
My issue with Eakins comment is that he tried to deflect the issue of contact and brought up the unattainable "perfect game" scenario. No team is perfect, but the suggestion that being physical will automatically decrease your chances of winning is somewhat misleading.
Of course you want your team to have the puck, but both teams want it, and I find many of the successful teams are not only good at controlling the puck, they are excellent at getting it back.
Many consider Pittsburgh to be a puck possession team, and they are, but they also are top-ten in hits/game. Delivering a hit hasn’t hurt them, and clearly they win despite not playing a "perfect game."
A major benefit from being physical is that your aggressive play will force teams to move the puck quicker than they want, which often leads to turnovers. Having players who can separate opponents from the puck through body contact is also valuable and a significant part of the game.
The problem with the Oilers is that their overall skill isn’t good enough to be a puck possession team, and right now they aren’t very good at retrieving the puck once the opposition has it.
I’m sure Eakins will strive to build his team to become more of a puck possession team, but I’d hope he realizes that until they become great at protecting the puck and not turning it over, they will need to improve their puck retrieval skills at the same time, and often pressuring the puck carrier, hitting and being physical is the best way to create turnovers.
I respect that he wants his team to have the puck, but I felt bringing up the notion of the "perfect game" was an attempt to deflect attention away from an area of their game, physicality and aggression, that has been lacking for years.
LINEUP…
Hall-RNH-Eberle
Smyth-Gagner-Perron
Hendricks-Gordon-Jones
Joenssu-Arcobello-Yakupov
Smyth-Gagner-Perron
Hendricks-Gordon-Jones
Joenssu-Arcobello-Yakupov
Ference-J.Schultz
Marincin-Petry
Belov-Potter
Marincin-Petry
Belov-Potter
Bryzgalov
Hemsky is still nursing a deep bone bruise, but Nail Yakupov returns to the lineup.
The optics don’t look great having Yak on the fourth line and Smyth on the second, but I doubt they stay that way very long. They were hoping Hemsky was ready and he’d be playing there.
Gazdic hasn’t had a fight in 13 games and while Eakins stressed being a healthy scratch wasn’t performance-related, I wonder if his lack of aggressiveness recently is the reason he is in the pressbox? If your job is to play physical and get the opposition’s attention, then you have to find a way to do it. However, Eakins defended him in the post-game presser on Tuesday saying he tried to do his job.
So either he isn’t doing it well enough or he is sitting because Phoenix rarely dresses a tough guy. What do you think?
QUICK HITS…
- I would have liked to see Eakins put Gazdic on the ice more often against Kassian. I never expected him to jump him, but had he been on the ice more often the chances of a "heat of the moment" altercation would have been higher.
I don’t buy the Bertuzzi/Moore argument as a reason why Gazdic couldn’t have done something to Kassian. That happened a decade ago, and since then many teams and players have found ways to send a message to the opposition without being suspended.
- It is smart not to rush Hemsky back. You want him healthy for the deadline.
Andrew Ference didn’t ask Lee Stempniuk to fight earlier this year. He dropped his gloves and Stempniuk had no choice but to eat a few rights or defend himself. In the past week I’ve seen Milan Lucic and Tom Sestito go after Jordan Nolan instead of waiting for him to politely oblige their request to fight.
Sestito and Lucic went after Nolan after he hit one of their teammates earlier in the game. Had Gazdic been on the ice for more than one and a half shifts against Kassian, he would have had a much better chance of engaging him. I wouldn’t have worried about Gazdic taking an instigator or even worse a 7-minute penalty like Sestito did in LA last week. Was getting the win that important in the overall picture? The Oilers are in 29th, had the won they’d still be in 29th and out of the playoffs in late January.
Whether they like it or not, the perception from players around the league is that teams can take liberties with the Oilers skilled players without fear of retribution. If Gazdic had got a hold of Kassian and landed a few shots that wouldn’t have stopped every team from trying to hit the Oilers in the future, but at least it would show that if you do there will be some consequences to your actions.
If the Oilers were in a battle for a playoff spot, I could understand being worried about giving up an extended powerplay, but that wasn’t the case on Tuesday and it won’t be the rest of the season. I’d hope the next time someone cheap shots one of the Oilers skilled players, Eakins will at least give his physical players an opportunity to try and even the score; in a manner that won’t lead to a suspension like Lucic or Sestito managed to do.
TONIGHT…
GAME DAY PREDICTION: I’m taking a night off. The first person to tweet @jasongregor their GDP I will add it to this post. Look deep into your crystal ball.
Update…Courtesy of @JaredGorbahn GDP: Oilers 4-1. Bryz forced to stand on his head and Hall adds 2 assists.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Yakupov and Arcobello combine to score and many will suggest they should be playing with Perron.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Eberle ties a career-high with goals in four consecutive games, but it is his game celebration that surprises many. After the game he sends Wanye a tweet, "I know yesterday was difficult for you with the Biebs’ arrest. Don’t worry I won’t let you down. I’m not getting traded." Wanye promptly retires from twitter saying his life can’t possibly get any better.
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