GOOD ARROWS

Teemu Hartikainen’s progress has been the subject of much discussion this fall,and for good reason. The big Finn has a chance to fill that most elusive of roles: a big forward who can crash, bang, keep up and cash. So, uh, how’s he doing?

We’re in luck because Hartikainen has played at the same level (AHL) for the past 2+ seasons. We should start by admitting that time-on-ice in each discipline, quality of linemates (especially this year) and qual comp factor into the equation. Also, luck is an enormous factor in all of this–line drives count as outs if the other guy can get leather on it. Still, its an interesting way to look at the prospect and parse the boxcars. Let’s start with evens

Hartikainen didn’t start with the big guns (2 games for Paajarvi, one period for Josh Green) but got there early this season and stayed for a time. Last night he played with Paajarvi and Lander, so he’s moved around the lineup; however, I do think its reasonable to suggest he’s gotten a push from coach Nelson and the Oiler management. Credit where due, he’s posting good numbers (very good before the recent team slump) and should be good for 35+ points in this discipline if he plays with Nuge-Ebs enough this season.

Again, its early so lets not go crazy. Having said that, it is encouraging to see Hartikainen posting points early this season (the Barons most certainly have other options) and last night’s assist came on the man advantage.

By now someone is screaming "sample size" and that’s certainly true, but I think we’re at a point now where we can probably say Hartikainen’s bat is good enough for the big leagues. Not every AHL prospect scores .583/game at that level. An example might be last year’s Barons, who looked like this at even strength (30 game minimum):

As you might expect, the top of the list is mostly minor league veterans–Green, Arcobello, Keller–those are the guys the Heat are employing this season. They can hit AAA pitching like crazy and it shows in this graph. Paajarvi had a very nice number a year ago, and Hartikainen’s this season would put him at the top of the list.

We’ll spend more time looking at even strength scoring in OKC as the season wears along. More at-bats gives us a truer read on the numbers–some of those line drives will find the grass as time rolls along.

Todd Nelson likes the progress he’s seen from Hartikainen.

A year ago, Nelson was talking about Hartikainen needing to find consistency and improve his play away from the puck–all of the things Craig MacTavish used to say about Dan Cleary, Jason Chimera and just about every new winger (save Fernando Pisani) to come down the pipe. Coaching staffs love consistency and awareness, and Hartikainen has improved a lot in this area. His playoff in the spring was kind of a graduation in this area.

Now (I believe) we’re down to two things: how much lumber can he bring to he plate (and the numbers above look good) and how often he’ll throw that big body around on a line with Nuge and Eberle. He seems to be passing that test, too–and without taking stupid penalties.

Its too early for a victory dance, but things are looking good for Teemu Hartikainen. Good arrows. Good arrows.