Have the Oilers improved?

For the sake of everyone in Edmonton, I sure hope so.

I do believe the Oilers have improved, which isn’t hard considering they were the 3rd worst team in the NHL last season, but how much have they improved?

It is hard to say until we see the product on the ice, but I wanted to revisit an angle we looked at in May.

Three months ago, I wrote an article outlining the Oilers lack of size, strength and experience within their top-nine forwards compared to western conference playoff teams. Since then, Craig MacTavish has made significant changes to his top-nine.

How much better do they look on paper now than three months ago?

Here is how their top-nine looked in May.

I understand there is much more to the game than just size, strength and experience, but after speaking with Taylor Fedun on Tuesday and listening to him talk about the challenges of going against bigger, skilled forwards I thought it was worth looking at again.

In May, some accused me of fudging the numbers by including Mark Arcobello and leaving out Jesse Joensuu. The fact Arcobello played more games and minutes didn’t matter in their eyes, but 90 days later I think it is safe to say Arcobello is in a much better position to be a top-nine forward on the Oilers than Joensuu, so I stand by what I wrote in May.

Here is how the Oilers projected top-nine forwards today:

The Oilers got taller, but they are actually lighter and younger. I think most would agree they have more talent and a better mix of top-nine forwards now, despite being a lighter group. Pouliot, Draisaitl and Purcell have more combined skill than Sam Gagner, Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks.

I also believe that collectively they have better possession players. So that is a good thing. I also expect RNH, Hall and Yakupov to have added some weight this summers so the average might jump to 193 pounds, but they still won’t be close to the average weight of the top teams in the West. Dallas (202), Minnesota (203), Chicago (204), St. Louis (206), San Jose (206), Anaheim and LA (207). The Blues actually got a bit bigger and more skilled adding Paul Stastny over Vladimir Sobotka. 

I expect the Oilers to be better than last season, but I still believe Craig MacTavish will need to add more skilled size in the coming years before they can truly compete with the top teams in the west.

Much of the focus in Edmonton has been on their offence and the lack of a second line centre, which is fair, but the Oilers were the worst defensive team in the NHL last year. Goalies, D-men and forwards all need to be better in their own zone, but specifically the D corps has to improve. I also wrote a piece in May comparing the Oilers defence to the top teams in the west. 

MacTavish upgraded his blueline a lot in my eyes. They are more skilled and thankfully bigger and stronger.

Here is what they looked like in May:

The thought of Larsen, Belov and Fraser hopping over the boards likely gives you cold sweats. The Oilers had the worst defence in the NHL last year, and it wasn’t even close. “Our system wasn’t that hard, but too often we had guys in the wrong position or making wrong plays,” a defenceman told me off the record last month.

He said the team made too many mental mistakes in their own end. It was an interesting conversation, and it is hard to argue with his analysis. You need players who are skilled, but who also can think the game.

Three months later MacTavish has upgraded his blueline in experience, skill and size.

Fayne and Nikitin are massive upgrades over Belov, Larsen and Fraser. It will be interesting to see who Dallas Eakins and Craig Ramsay use as D pairs this season. Willis had a good article outlining Fayne’s ability to play against elite forwards, so I’d safely assume he will get a heavy dose of DZ starts against tough competition. I think Fayne will be paired with Nikitin.

The Oilers’ blueline is more skilled and they are heavier, a nice combination that will help them in the D zone. Fayne and Nikitin are big enough and strong enough to play battle Getzlaf, Kopitar, Thornton, Marleau and the rest of the huge skilled forwards in the west.

That should allow Schultz and Petry to spend less time against the big, strong, skilled forwards, which should result in better possession numbers for both of them.

The Oilers blueline is now bigger, heavier and more experienced. They are getting closer to matching up to the size of the playoff team’s blueliners: Kings (215), Blues (210), Avs (210), Stars (208), Ducks (205), Sharks (205), Hawks (204) and Wild (198).

At the end of last year, the Oilers spoke to Marincin about getting stronger and heavier so I’d expect he will come to camp heavier than 188. With his frame he eventually needs to be 200 pounds. If he is around 195 this year that will help him during one-on-one battles.

The Oilers’ blue line needed an overhaul, and I believe MacTavish did a decent job. I never expected him to add a top-pairing guy, which would have been nice, but I expect he will keep trying to land one or hope that one of Schultz, Marincin, Klefbom or Nurse can become that guy in the future.

The Oilers needed to improve many facets of their roster, and getting bigger and stronger was one of them.

The added size combined with skill should make them more competitive this season. It won’t solve all of their problems, but MacTavish has to check off his weaknesses one by one, and I think he did a solid job of addressing their lack of size and skill, especially on the blueline. 

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