HOW GOOD IS MATT TKACHUK?

7 years ago

There are times when a story takes on a life of its own. It seems like only yesterday we were discussing the 2016 Entry Draft and bemoaning the fact that Edmonton drafted No. 4 in a draft with three elite talents. Then came the Memorial Cup, and brilliant tip-ins, gorgeous passes (the first Knight goal at the MC featured an outstanding thread-the-needle pass) and the grand finale: The overtime goal to win it all.

Matt Tkachuk, this is your life!

HYPERBOLE MEETS RUNAWAY TRAIN

The verbal on this prospect is exceptional, even on the stuff written before the Memorial Cup. Take this from notorious hard markers Red Line Report:

The prototype of a modern power winger. Has great size and strength, and wins every puck battle around walls and corners. Makes power moves to the net. Has outstanding vision and playmaking skills. Has a real mean streak if you get him riled up, but would prefer to beat you with perfectly timed and placed passes or a wicked snap shot. Dominant force can take over games. Will hit, fight, score, and is one of the most competitive bastards you’ll ever find. Source

CONTROLLED ENTRIES

During the Memorial Cup, Tkachuk surprised some observers with his individual controlled entries into the offensive zone—4.3 per game, tied for No. 1 in the tournament.

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That’s 70.6 percent. The 4.3 controlled entries per game was even more impressive during a regular-season look by Todd Cordell. He tracked 12 OHL regular season involving Tkachuk, and found 5.333 controlled entries per game.

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This is important, because much of the analysis I am reading has Tkachuk being a player who does much of his busy work in the offensive zone—but he has been described as a complementary puck carrier in some circles. The numbers here show (small sample size alert) he may actually be strong in gaining the offensive zone under control—that’s a big damned deal.

ANOTHER GUSHING SCOUTING REPORT

Steve Kournianos, The Draft Analyst: Tkachuk has a very heavy and accurate shot, his penchant for
delivering scoring-chance set-ups at the very last moment is yet another
reason why he’ll be so coveted come Draft Day. Throw in leadership
qualities and a desire to make opponents pay the price physically, and
you have the makings of the best pure power forward prospect available
for the 2016 draft. Source

IS IT ALL OVER THE TOP GOOD?

There are two things that should give an NHL team at least a little pause in regard to Tkachuk. The skating issue cannot be overlooked or submerged—chances are, he will skate with Connor McDavid at some point, and that man is a fast train.

The other issue is in regard to his points and where they come from. No one can argue Tkachuk’s production, he is a very good offensive player. That said, at his even-strength primary points-per-game do not tower over the rest of the group eligible for the 2016 draft (OHL forwards):

Alex DeBrincat 0.883
Adam Mascherin 0.754
Taylor Raddysh 0.657
Matt Tkachuk 0.649
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Tkachuk plays on a ridiculous line, but his primary points per game are not his best feature. There are things that could impact that number—he may not play at even strength as much as DeBrincat (as an example). Still, it is worth mentioning as we move forward with this player.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

Matt Tkachuk is an excellent prospect and I believe he will be Edmonton’s choice should they pick No. 4 overall. The Red Line scouting report leaps off the page—folks, Red Line does not sugar coat their opinions.

That said, he is not without issue as a prospect and we should consider him a talented prospect who is ‘in the range’ of players qualified to be taken with the Oilers pick. With that understood, he would appear to be the overwhelming favorite to be the latest in a fairly long line of ridiculous first-round picks by Edmonton (Taylor Hall, RNH, Oscar Klefbom, Nail Yakupov, Darnell Nurse, Leon Draisaitl, Connor McDavid). With his obvious talents, Tkachuk is likely to be a very successful Oiler should the team choose him.

One thing that has to count as a positive? He is aware of things he needs to work on.

Tkachuk: “I think [my skating] has come a long way since the beginning of the year and it still needs some work, but things are looking positive and I’m going in a positive direction.”
Tkachuk: “I’ve also been working on being responsible defensively. I think my offence speaks for itself, but I think my play in the defensive zone has improved a lot.”
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Previously in the series: