In Nikolai Khabibulin, He Trusts

12 years ago

Aside from the comments on Yakupov, the most interesting comments to me in Steve Tambellini’s last press conference were the ones on the Oilers’ goaltending situation. Tambellini confirmed that Nikolai Khabibulin would be back, and praised his veteran goaltender.

Asked by Bob Stauffer whether or not Devan Dubnyk was a starter, Tambellini answered this way:

Only to the point, Bob, where maybe he hasn’t done it long enough. In peoples’ minds, they see the potential. I know he wants it, I know he wants it badly. I’ve always said to both him and Khabby, ‘I don’t care who it is, just somebody take the net.’ If I’m saying that to a young guy, and if I’m a young player and my manager has told me, he’s given me the green light that if you’re playing that well it’s your net, go take it, I’m pretty excited. I like what I saw the last third of the season, I liked his poise. I liked the way he handled, you know playing once a week or every two games here and then sitting five games is much different from managing your energy, confidence levels, expectations from the rest of the team that ‘we need someone to be in a post that can help us win every night, give us a chance to win every night.’ So there were good signs.

The first sentence of that quote is the one that jumps out at me. Dubnyk’s career save percentage in the NHL is 0.910, which is right around the league average and compares favourably to guys like Marc-Andre Fleury (0.912) and Martin Brodeur (0.910) in the same span.

On Khabibulin, Tambellini was definitive, saying “We’ll have Nik back.” Asked what role Khabibulin would return in, he expanded on that statement:

You know, when I talked to Nik in his post season exit meetings, he told me he wants to play another four or five years. I said ‘You feel that good Nik?’ and he said ‘Well why not?’ So, by him saying that to me, he’s still feeling the compete and the challenge. I think guys like Nik Khabibulin need to be, or like to be, challenged or motivated, they’re not afraid of it. So Devan’s poised right now to take games from him and I love the fact his plan is to get the net back.

Khabibulin and Dubnyk both started playing for the Oilers in 2009-10. Here’s the list of active NHL goalies (minimum 50 GP) and their save percentages since that season, with Khabibulin and Dubnyk bolded:

Rk	Player	GP	W	L	T/O	SV%
1	Cory Schneider	60	36	13	3	0.932
2	Tuukka Rask	97	44	34	10	0.927
3	Tim Thomas	159	87	48	18	0.926
4	Henrik Lundqvist	203	110	72	20	0.924
5	Pekka Rinne	195	108	56	22	0.922
6	Tomas Vokoun	168	70	73	18	0.922
7	Ryan Miller	196	106	61	23	0.921
8	Jaroslav Halak	148	79	46	19	0.920
9	Roberto Luongo	183	109	51	19	0.920
10	Evgeni Nabokov	113	63	34	13	0.919
11	Ilya Bryzgalov	196	111	56	23	0.918
12	Carey Price	178	77	76	22	0.918
13	Jonathan Quick	202	109	67	23	0.918
14	Cam Ward	189	85	72	28	0.918
15	Jonas Hiller	181	85	69	19	0.917
16	Jimmy Howard	183	109	49	19	0.917
17	Kari Lehtonen	140	72	50	15	0.917
18	Miikka Kiprusoff	214	107	74	27	0.916
19	Jason LaBarbera	53	18	20	7	0.916
20	Antti Niemi	167	95	47	19	0.916
21	Mike Smith	131	64	42	18	0.916
22	Craig Anderson	185	95	67	17	0.915
23	Johan Hedberg	108	53	35	10	0.915
24	Semyon Varlamov	106	52	37	14	0.915
25	Jose Theodore	132	67	34	21	0.914
26	Niklas Backstrom	157	67	64	20	0.912
27	Scott Clemmensen	84	31	25	15	0.912
28	Marc-Andre Fleury	199	115	58	15	0.912
29	Josh Harding	59	22	24	4	0.912
30	James Reimer	71	34	24	9	0.911
31	Martin Brodeur	192	99	72	13	0.910
32	Corey Crawford	115	63	36	13	0.910
33	Devan Dubnyk	101	36	43	13	0.910
34	Brian Elliott	148	67	55	17	0.910
35	Michal Neuvirth	103	49	29	9	0.910
36	Sergei Bobrovsky	83	42	23	10	0.909
37	Jean-Sebastien Giguere	100	36	37	14	0.909
38	Ondrej Pavelec	168	64	69	25	0.909
39	Brent Johnson	62	29	18	6	0.907
40	Andrew Raycroft	50	19	18	1	0.907
41	Ray Emery	73	38	22	5	0.906
42	Martin Biron	67	29	26	6	0.905
43	Chris Mason	114	51	42	12	0.905
44	Al Montoya	51	18	16	10	0.905
45	Antero Niittymaki	73	33	25	8	0.905
46	Marty Turco	87	35	33	14	0.905
47	Brian Boucher	77	28	34	8	0.904
48	Dan Ellis	85	37	28	8	0.904
49	Dwayne Roloson	144	60	59	15	0.904
50	Peter Budaj	77	25	33	11	0.903
51	Mathieu Garon	119	45	39	16	0.902
52	Jeff Deslauriers	52	19	29	4	0.901
53	Nikolai Khabibulin	105	29	61	13	0.901
54	Curtis McElhinney	50	18	18	3	0.901
55	Ty Conklin	66	23	24	7	0.900
56	Jonas Gustavsson	107	39	45	15	0.900
57	Steve Mason	158	60	73	19	0.899
58	Alex Auld	54	17	13	7	0.898

Devan Dubnyk ranks 33rd on the list. Omitting his cameo at the end of 2009-10, and he moves to 22nd among NHL goalies, tied with Craig Anderson. He’s young, and even if he’s reached his plateau he’s still a very respectable 1A/1B-style goalie.

Nikolai Khabibulin ranks 53rd on that list, tied with Jeff Deslauriers and Curtis McElhinney. Only four guys with a minimum of 50 games have posted a worse save percentage. Omit his strong part-season in 2009-10 with the Oilers (18GP, 0.909 SV%) and his save percentage drops to 0.899, ahead of only Alex Auld and just behind Ty Conklin and Jonas Gustavsson.

The numbers are clear, and in this case tell truth. The decision to stick with Devan Dubnyk is a good one. The decision to stick with Nikolai Khabibulin is indefensible for a team actively trying to win.

Khabibulin’s late season collapses the last two years have been pivotal to landing consecutive first overall draft picks. Post-Christmas, the last two years, Khabibulin’s record has been a mind-blowing 3-33-6, with a 0.880 SV%. Overall, his record has been 22-53-11, as opposed to Dubnyk’s 32-32-11 mark.

A team actively looking to move out of the basement would look at what Khabibulin has done the last few years, decide that he’s not up to the job, and find another option. Even the Oilers’ third-stringer this season – Yann Danis, the AHL’s goalie of the year – is a better option for the NHL roster than Nik Khabibulin.

It’s a bad choice for the Oilers, but this isn’t new. They’ve been making bad choices with Khabibulin since the day they signed him.

In Nikolai Khabibulin, He Trusts

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