Looking back at my 5 things
5 years ago
On March 4th, with 17 games left in the season, I wrote a piece titled “5 Things to Watch”. The team was out of the playoff race and we had reached the point of the season where whether the Oilers won or lost was rather irrelevant and I wanted to have some reason to intently watch the final stretch of the season.
I kept some notes and here is my recap of those five things and if the Oilers have any reason to look back on the final 20 games of the season and feel good about themselves.
5 – Leon’s race for 50
This really was a fun way to end the season. When I wrote this piece, Draisaitl had 40 goals with 17 games to go and it was far from a slam dunk that he would reach 50. His hat-trick against the LA Kings was a massive turning point in his race to be the second player this season to hit the half-century mark.
He ended the season with a pair of goals against the Sharks in the final home game and then fired home number 50 on the final game of the season in Calgary. For a brief moment, it looked like he was going to be able to catch Alex Ovechkin for the Rocket Richard Award. The hashtag #L50N was being fired around like crazy and Oilers fans were genuinely excited about something right up until the final game of the season. It was great to see.
4 – Mikko Koskinen, is he a number one?
Nov 20, 2018; San Jose, CA, USA; Edmonton Oilers goaltender Mikko Koskinen (19) tries to stop the puck against San Jose Sharks right wing Timo Meier (28) during the second period at SAP Center at San Jose. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
After watching his final 15 starts, I can firmly say that Mikko Koskinen is not a true number one goaltender at the NHL level. If there was any sort of optimism in my brain, he killed it with his play over the final month. I think he can play like a starting goalie for extended periods of time throughout the course of a regular season, but I do not think the Oilers should be banking on getting 50-60 good starts from him next season.
In those last 15 starts, he posted a record of 7-6-2 which isn’t exactly terrible, but he did not inspire any confidence with his play in those games. He got pulled three times and in four other games he gave up at least four goals. He only had a save percentage higher than 0.900 in eight starts. For me, a legitimate starting goalie who’s going to make $4.5 million should have a 0.900 or better save percentage in more than 53% of his starts.
I wrote more about Koskinen and whether or not the organization should be counting on some form of improvement from the big Finn HERE.
Part of it can be attributed to the fact that Koskinen was simply worn out, but we also saw teams really start to attack him up high. He gave up a ridiculous amount of goals over his shoulders or on his glove side. That needs to be fixed and it became more apparent after watching the final stretch of games.
3 – A look at a healthy blueline
For the first time in what feels like over two seasons, we got to see the Oilers with all of their defensemen healthy. It was nice to see and even though I liked what Andrej Sekera brought, the Oilers actually got worse when it comes to preventing chances at even strength, which was disappointing to see.
During the regular season, here are some numbers I pulled from when the Oilers were at even strength and where they ranked amongst NHL teams:
| Shots Against/60 | Scoring Chances Against/60 | Fenwick Against/60 | Goals Against/60 |
| 31.15 (16th) | 27.1 (21st) | 42.78 (16th) | 2.87 (22nd) |
Over the course of their final 17 games, here is how the Oilers faired in those same metrics and how they stacked up to the rest of the league in that time span:
| Shots Against/60 | Scoring Chances Against/60 | Fenwick Against/60 | Goals Against/60 |
| 31.70 (19th) | 29.22 (26th) | 42.86 (14th) | 3.01 (23rd) |
They got worse at preventing chances at even strength and it showed in the goals against column. Granted, Mikko Koskinen was not very sharp, but the group in front of him didn’t make life very easy.
Watching the final 17 games just cemented that the Oilers still need to upgrade their second pairing. Larsson struggled down the stretch, so did Klefbom, but I would be willing to bank of them bouncing back for the most part next season. I don’t think Russell-Nurse is a good enough second pairing and I think that needs to be upgraded if they want to see legitimate improvement next season.
2 – Which bottom six players will earn jobs?
Mar 11, 2019; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers forward Zack Kassian (44) celebrates a first period goal by defensemen Matt Benning (83) against the New York Rangers at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports
The Oilers bottom six situation for next year is pretty crowded. Milan Lucic, Zack Kassian, Colby Cave, Sam Gagner, Kyle Brodziak, Cooper Marody, and Josh Currie all saw time in the bottom six this season and are all under contract for next season. Mix in free agents Alex Chiasson and Jujhar Khaira who I believe will be resigned and you suddenly have nine players who will be competing for essentially seven spots on the team (bottom six and extra forward).
Zack Kassian (8 points in final 17 games) and Alex Chiasson (9 points in final 17 games) both showed well enough at the end of the season that I wouldn’t be surprised to see one of them get a look in the top six when training camp begins next September.
Milan Lucic was not good down the stretch and neither was Kyle Brodziak, but it looks like those two will have spots on the team next year. Their contracts sort of dictate that more than their play does. I really liked what Josh Currie brought to the team, he has the speed and skill to potentially be an NHLer next season, but I will admit he was less effective later in his stint with the Oilers this year.
I really liked what Sam Gagner brought to the table. His versatility and skill is needed in the Oilers’ bottom six. I’m just not sure if he’s worth his $3 million price tag and it’s very easy to buy him out and save some money. I wouldn’t be surprised if the next GM bought him out.
Colby Cave makes league minimum and did enough to warrant being at least the teams 13th forward. I think you can make a case that he is more impactful than Kyle Brodziak just based on the fact he skates better. Jujhar Khaira was hurt and never really found a consistent groove this season. I still like his size and raw ability. I hope the Oilers find a way to bring him back. Cooper Marody needs to work on his skating, but I think the organization is high on him and might push him into a full-time NHL role next season.
That’s my quick notes version of how I think the bottom six situation is shaping up. I will also be writing more in-depth on this in the coming week.
1 – Just Watch Bakersfield
Bakersfield Condors forward Josh Currie
There have been a small handful of positive stories from an Oilers season that has been filled with negativity. The play of the Bakersfield Condors and the success of a handful of young players is one of the reasons to be optimistic about the future of the organization.
On the back end, Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones have continued their development and are starting to look like they’ll be NHL defenseman at some point in the next 18 months.
Up front, Tyler Benson will likely finish his rookie season just shy of a point per game with 14 goals and 49 assists in 65 games. Cooper Marody had 60 points in 55 games during his first full season of professional hockey. Does each player have their own individual warts? For sure. But am I more confident in their ability to be full-time NHLers by the end of next season than I was back in September? Absolutely.
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