Measuring Up Against The Finalists: Edmonton Oilers Edition

A few days ago, we took a snapshot of the current edition of the Edmonton Oilers, and compared it to the Stanley Cup champion Boston Bruins. We did this because the ultimate goal of any rebuilding program is a championship win, and it can be useful to compare just to see which areas the team needs to work on, and which areas can be regarded as relative strengths.

However, another team came within one win of the Stanley Cup, and that team is among those the Oilers will have to compete with to emerge from the Western Conference. Therefore, it probably makes sense to run a similar check against the Vancouver Canucks.

As previously, what I propose to do here is a limited comparison – a comparison of scoring by forwards and defensemen on each team, at both five-on-five and on the power play. This is naturally a limited picture, as scoring totals don’t take into account other things that a defensive ace like Ryan Kesler or Manny Malhotra does, and doesn’t take into account penalty-killing. I’ve chosen to minimize my focus on those areas, because they are difficult to quantify, but that does not mean they should be ignored altogether.

Additionally, I have (again) left out the goaltending comparison. Roberto Luongo had an inconsistent playoffs – superb against the Sharks and Predators, hit and miss against the Blackhawks and Bruins – but he’s still a far better goaltender than Nikolai Khabibulin as the latter nears the end of his career. Any playoff team needs at least a decent goaltending performance, and that’s something the Oilers will need to address at some point.

Players below are ranked by their place in the line-up (based on ice-time and games played) rather than by scoring totals.

 

As was the case with Boston, the gap between the Oilers and the Canucks at centre is highly noticeable.

Once again, neither Gagner nor Horcoff’s performance would have been good enough to place them on the top two lines in Vancouver, Andrew Cogliano is in close to the right place on the depth chart, and Colin Fraser is not an everyday player.

The difference in faceoff ability is also worth noting. The Oilers struggles in the circle are well documented, while Vancouver’s three primary centres all fared well – Henrik Sedin, at 52.0% was simply good, while Kesler (57.3%) and Malhotra (61.7%) put up elite numbers.

Bottom line: The Oilers are outclassed; they have three NHL-calibre centres, but their top-two lag behind the Canucks and the guy at the bottom had a miserable year.

 

A look at the Oilers’ roster makes it abundantly clear that their strength is on the wings, but aside from Ales Hemsky it seems clear they have some distance to go to match the Canucks.

Let’s start at the bottom. Gilbert Brule’s season wasn’t good enough. Jean-Francois Jacques doesn’t bring enough offense (or defense, though that’s another story) for the role he plays, and Steve MacIntyre’s abilities in one category are superb and in every other well below NHL-quality. Ryan Jones would probably be competing for the 12th/13th forward role on the Canucks’ roster. I suspect Magnus Paajarvi would have been a part-time AHL/NHL player, as his abilities this season wouldn’t earn him enough ice-time on a contender to be ideal for his development.

The other three kids – Hall, Eberle and Omark – are good enough for NHL duty on offense. Hall’s numbers here undersell the season he had (the drought to start the year hurts him) while Eberle’s defensive play is a plus. Even so, it’s a good bet that both kids would have been in a dog-fight for top-six minutes with guys like Raymond, Higgins and Samuelsson, probably winning most of the time but shuttled further down the lineup during bad games or cold stretches.

Hemsky alone would undoubtedly be a top-line player on Vancouver.

As for the power play numbers, the less said the better.

Bottom line: Hemsky’s an elite talent, and the Oilers have some good pieces that are making strides, but they don’t have the kind of two-way veteran presence the Canucks enjoyed.

 

Vancouver’s defense is an interesting study in the by-committee approach – there’s no franchise defenseman in the group, but any of their top-four guys could handle top-pairing minutes if they needed to.

On the positive side, I think the bottom end of the Oilers’ depth chart has some nice comparable pieces – Vancouver’s playoff depth guys (Rome, Alberts, Tanev) weren’t especially impressive and of course Keith Ballard was scratched most of the time, so it’s possible to imagine a guy like Jim Vandermeer playing a depth role in that group.

Ryan Whitney’s even-strength offense stands out here, but the rest of the Oilers’ group is lacking. I think it is probably fair to say that Ladislav Smid would have slotted into the number six role on the Canucks’ blue-line, and it’s fair to ask if Gilbert would have been any higher than fifth; if the Oilers want a by-committee blue-line they need to add a bunch of guys and hope players like Petry, Peckham, or even Smid can improve a lot.

As with every other position, the power play numbers stick out like a sore thumb.

Bottom line: Whitney would fit in, and the bottom end is fine; all the Oilers need to do is add three or four more top-four guys to match the Canucks’ tremendous defensive depth.