It’s generally not a good idea to look for contract value at
the very top of the summer free agent list, and it would be a surprise if Milan
Lucic were an exception to the rule. This is the best chance he’s ever going to
have to cash-in on his formidable reputation, and nobody could blame him for
going after the best combination of dollars and term out there.

TSN’s Insider
Trading panel had a lot to say on Lucic, the Edmonton Oilers and free
agency in general on Thursday. The whole segment is linked above and worth watching,
but I’m going to quote one of Bob McKenzie’s comments that particularly grabbed
my attention:

Those are big numbers, but in some ways they aren’t
surprising.

Timing is a factor. Edmonton Oilers general manager Peter Chiarelli
undoubtedly has his reasons for deciding to trade Taylor Hall for Adam Larsson
prior to July 1, but that decision has ripped open a massive hole on the left
side of the Oilers’ depth chart. That leaves Edmonton in an awful negotiating
position with Lucic’s camp, because just walking away from him now becomes much
more difficult to do given the Oilers obvious need.

There also aren’t a ton of other options out there. It’s
always possible that a centre could be bumped over to the left side, but as far
as free agents go the pickings are pretty slim. Andrew Ladd and Loui Eriksson
are both older than Lucic and have inferior five-on-five scoring numbers, and
after that duo we start getting into names like Mikkel Boedker and Jamie McGinn—not
a road Edmonton should want to go down.

The other factor is that Chiarelli is obviously a fan of the
player. It’s hard to blame him, really. Not only is Lucic a unique talent that
the Oilers (and many other teams) have been admiring from afar for years, but Chiarelli
won a Stanley Cup with him on his roster.

All of that puts Lucic in the driver’s seat. When his agent
talks contract, he knows that he’s dealing with a G.M. who appreciates the
player, desperately needs help at the position and is going to have trouble
finding that help anywhere else in free agency.

It will be a big win for the Oilers if they can somehow get
Lucic under contract at a reasonable salary over a reasonable term. That’s
going to be difficult to achieve.