Monday Mailbag – Is a Nugent-Hopkins trade a certainty?

My friends, it’s Monday morning and that means it’s time for another edition of the mailbag. As always, I’ve taken five of your questions and sent them off to our panel of Nation writers to give their input and worldly wisdom. I need questions for next week so if you have something you’d like to ask you can email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter. Without further adieu, the Mailbag. Enjoy.

I’d say about 5%. I just don’t think Kelly has much left in the tank. I see this as Chiarelli helping his team by having another vet for preseason games and giving Kelly a chance to showcase himself to other teams.

I’ll say 30 percent. He may be able to help on the penalty kill, although one suspects the club may be able to find six forwards among their starters. If he can beat out Iiro Pakarinen or Jujhar Khaira we might see a trade to make room for him.

Chris Kelly and Pete Chiarelli go back a long way, but I don’t see a fit here for a 36-year-old centre who is well past his prime. If Kelly impresses then maybe somebody else gives him a look, but I think his chances of sticking here beyond pre-season are zero or close to it.

It’s difficult to put an actual number on it because he’s there as an insurance policy meaning him getting signed will come down to someone getting hurt. That said, I think he’s high on the list of players who would fill in if Slepyshev or Khaira aren’t able to go. I don’t think that’s a good thing, but it’s likely reality.

Like 25%? I don’t think he’s very likely to make the team and if he does I bet he’ll be in and out of the lineup on the fourth line.

I’m going to say a 25% chance because I just don’t know how much he has left in the tank. At 36-years-old, Kelly is getting up there and it will take some luck or injuries to clear a spot for him.

Detroit will put Franzen on LTIR. Minnesota is the interesting one. They are right at the cap, and might start opening night with 22-man roster. They are the team to watch cap wise, but I don’t see them having anyone the Oilers would be interested in to start the season, at least anyone the Wild would trade.

Detroit is interesting for Mike Green but that’s probably a deadline deal. I think we might see Arizona trade a defender and the Oilers will be interested.

You always keep an eye out, but the Oilers have to see where/if the players they have at camp fit before they worry about what’s happening with other rosters. Cart before the horse for a few weeks yet.

Vegas has a massive roster of players who would have to clear waivers, and some interesting names may end up hitting the wire. Detroit pretty much has to make a move in order to fit Andreas Athanasiou under their cap. Still, I feel Edmonton’s roster is pretty set and I doubt they end up adding anyone interesting unless there’s an injury at camp. They’re also pretty low on the waiver priority list, meaning a good player would have to clear through two thirds of the league before they got their chance.

I have a feeling Chia is satisfied with the team right now and isn’t looking to add or move any more guys. I personally wouldn’t be seeking a trade but if someone like Detroit approaches Chia I’m sure he’ll be listening.

I could see the Oilers fishing for a guy like Mike Green from Detroit to help with the power play for a playoff push, but that’s about it.

If Oilers perform well without Sekera, then I could see his $5.5 million being moved. The issue with that theory is Sekera has a NMC, which makes him difficult to trade. Chia could keep RNH, but it would be at the expense of re-signing Maroon and possibly Strome as well. It will be very difficult to have four forwards making $6 million next season. That would be $33 mill for four skaters.

It will be difficult. Maybe the Oilers get a massive season from Yohann Auvitu and can move Andrej Sekera (he would need to agree to waive his NMC). But all options appear to be distant bells.

Sekera’s the first name that comes to mind with his contract. I doubt Kris Russell’s is tradeable either. I would LOVE for Chia to find a way to keep Nugey around but I don’t really see it happening.

Honestly, and this bums me out to say, but I think Chiarelli is just saying that to protect Nuge a little bit. He will be the guy that gets traded next summer. I don’t like it, but I can’t see a scenario where it isn’t him. Sekera might be another option but I think it’s unlikely.

Duchene basically quit in the final 25 games last season. He had 2-3-5 in 25 GP. He was terrible. I’m sure he is frustrated with the rumours Sakic didn’t accept NYI’s supposed offer of Hamonic and a first rounder for Duchene. Duchene is supposed to be a leader in Colorado, and he makes $6 million and he basically checked out last season. If Sakic turned down the Hamonic deal then I’d say both parties are making bad decisions. Duchene needs to check his ego and play. If he plays well, then Sakic should receive a fair offer to trade him, and if he does he needs to wake up and trade Duchene. It isn’t great for team chemistry to have a player around who clearly doesn’t want to be there.

I think he’s going to rip it up in his new town and I wish that town was Edmonton. Can you imagine that guy on McDavid’s wing? Lordy.

It’s been ugly for a long time now and it’s only a matter of time until Joe Sakic trades him. This is only going to be a distraction during camp and pre-season until the situation is resolved.

He wants to be traded, and that’s totally valid because the Avs are a dumpster fire, but he isn’t making it easy on management. Showing up to camp and saying you don’t want to be there immediately after you completely mailed it in on the final few months of the 2016-17 season doesn’t really make you an attractive commodity.

I love seeing other teams struggle with players. I’m really enjoying the entertainment of this and am very curious to see how it plays out.

I have to say that it’s crazy that Sakic is letting this gongshow go on as long as it has. At this point, the distraction of having him around is going to be worse than whatever the return will be. In a way, Sakic is the anti-Chiarelli in that it seems like he’d rather wait forever to get the deal he wants who knows if that’ll ever happen. Chiarelli would have ripped the bandaid off by now and everyone would have been able to move on.

Hard to say. I had some of the most respected analytics guys on my show in August in Vollman and Awad, and those two, who study it much closer than I do, feel right now they are at a standstill. The next step in analytics will be including more accurate and accessible video to further the conversation. I assume it will happen, but I’m guessing it will be slower than increases we’ve seen the past five to ten years. Analytics research came a long way in the last decade, but future growth will likely be in smaller increments.

Having chips in a player’s equipment to monitor their on-ice movement will be the next step to giving a more accurate portrayal of what occurs on the ice. The most interesting stat from Awad is he believes, from all his studying of numbers, that 39% of hockey comes down to luck. Puck bounces, ricochet, injuries, travel, etc. He said current stats, goals, assists and new analytics can accurately track 36% of what occurs. He said that leaves 25% unaccounted for in today’s game and hopes in the future they can lower that number. I found that very interesting and I’m curious to see what advances we see to try and shrink the 25%.

Great question. I think the next breakthrough will be on measuring breakouts and entries. This work has been done but not in an organized way across the league. Big information there.

That’s not a Monday mailbag question, that’s a book. They are being refined and improved — at least by the people who aren’t willing to settle for a complete disconnect between the eyeballs and the numbers come hell or high water. The use of analytics will be an evolution, not the revolution many touted during the grossly over-hyped “summer of analytics” of a few years ago. As it should be.

There are so many things to touch on, but one would be looking at certain stats to shed light on certain aspects of hockey, a complicated and random game, rather than obsessing over the advent of a catch-all stat. Mainstream hockey stats, using shot attempt data to define much of a player’s worth because ya gotta score to win and ya gotta shoot to score! has hockey trapped where baseball was in the late 90s when it was decided on-base percentage was most worthwhile than batting average. Since then, value has been added to things like isolated power, swing rates in and outside the zone, and on the defensive side, like pitch framing and so on that weren’t valued back in its infancy. There’s great work going on like zone entry data and the passing project that shed light on new things we simply can’t catch at a high volume with our eyes, but a lot of people are still obsessed with the EA Sports video game manifested overall rating to attach to a player.

I can’t really see them improving at all. Maybe more stats will come and it will confuse everyone even more, but the problem is definitely just how people use the stats. If you’re not using the eye test ALONG with the stats, then you’re not using them properly.

I think the numbers are fine but it’s the presentation that’s the problem. Some stats guys can be pretty condescending with their side of the story and it makes it hard to get into when you feel like an idiot. For me personally, I like to watch the games, formulate my opinions, and then check the numbers to see if there’s anything that I missed.

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