Monday Mailbag – Is Jordan Eberle in the Plans?

The first week of 2017 is in the books, you’ve already quit your resolutions, and now you’re looking for ways to kill some company time until you’re allowed to go home. As always, we’re back with the mailbag to help you do that. I always need you guys for this feature so email me your questions to baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Now sit back, relax, and pretend to look busy for as long as possible. Have a good week, everybody.

As I write this, Edmonton has 45 points in 39 games. I think they need 50 points in the final 43 games to make the playoffs. So, whatever they do in the ensuing games between now and when this gets published, subtract the total and that is my answer. 🙂

I think it will take 90 points, so whatever record gets them there gets them in.

I’d say the Oilers need 42 points in their final 40 games, which would give them 91. 

Right now it appears that the cut-off to make the playoffs in the West is going to be right around 90 points. As I write this the Oilers have 49 points over 41 games, which would suggest that 40 points over the back 40 would do the trick. Something like 17-17-6 to close out the year would probably get them the final wild card slot.

Maybe like, 18-20-2? Tough to say, they probably will end up having to be better than .500. I have a feeling LA is going to pick it up soon as usual, so they need to be good. 

If the Oilers can get through at .500 over the last 40 games or so I think they’ll be right in the mix for the playoffs. If we can squeeze a few loser points out of the 20 losses then that would also be nice. Regardless, this is the best spot the Oilers have been in in a decade.

I don’t think there is an answer at this time, to be honest. Eberle is approaching the age where scorers often begin to fade offensively, often because they are asked to play against tougher competition. If the Oilers have the depth to run 14 against softer opposition, and that could happen, we may see him score like a demon through the end of the decade. Too soon to know is a terrible answer, except when it is the correct one.

Yes. Until the Oilers have a better option on RW then they don’t need to be trading Eberle or anybody else from a position that lacks depth.

It depends on your definition of long-term. It is too difficult to predict where most players will be after three years, except the majority with NMC or elite players like Connor McDavid. Eberle is having a down year. His trade value will be lower than ever. I don’t see the Oilers giving him away for nothing, especially when they have no other natural, proven scoring right wingers. I’d say his future depends on what he does in the playoffs.

This is a tough question, one I went over repeatedly before finally settling in to answer it. I probably lean 60/40 towards “no.” Eberle’s best hope was to knock the ball out of the park on McDavid’s line this year and he just hasn’t done that. He’s a good, useful player, but he’s also expensive, somewhat one-dimensional, and not a guy who really seems like a fit for a Peter Chiarelli-run team. Right now my guess is that the Oilers eventually opt to utilize his money elsewhere.

Unfortunately no. I love Jordan Eberle off the ice, and i love his slick hands on the ice, but with his size and production, I could easily see him getting moved within the next two seasons as long as we have some sort of RW depth back-up.

I don’t think so and I don’t think it’s because he’s having a tough year. I don’t think he’s the kind of player that Chiarelli wants for the top line and his defensive play isn’t strong enough to justify the lulls in production. It may not happen this year, or next, but Eberle’s days in blue and orange are likely winding down.

Combination of things, and I do think he is adjusting to the rigours of a long season. I think he has to keep pushing, and honestly, he is still having a tremendous season. Even great offensive players run hot and cold, suspect he fills the net soon. 

This has been asked, what, three times in different ways over the last month? He’s fine. These are the ebbs and flows of a season. Teams didn’t just start focusing on him in the last month. He’ll adjust to what other teams are trying to do against him.

Even great players go through dips, but I wouldn’t be too worried about his game. The only area he could improve is not passing when he’s in a great shooting lane. He has had more shots on goal every month this season, and I expect we will see him producing similar numbers very soon. He is simply too good not to produce.

It’s probably worth breaking this down month-by-month. Here are a few of McDavid’s numbers for the first three months of 2016-17:

McDavid finished December with two fewer assists than he’d managed in previous months. That’s really not much of a gap – certainly nothing I’d read into. The big drop is in the goals department, and it’s entirely a result of shooting percentage. He’s getting a ton of shots, but early in the year 1-in-5 were beating goalies whereas in December it was 1-in-17. These fluctuations are entirely normal and happen to every player, including Sidney Crosby, and we’re still going to see low-shooting percentage months when McDavid is 25, 30 and 35. I don’t think he has to change a thing.

I think it’s a little bit of both. Thankfully when Connor doesn’t score, we have guys like Pat Maroon getting a hat trick, and Zack Kassian potting one, etc. I wouldn’t exactly call what he’s going through a ‘slump’ cause he’s still producing lots, but I would just tell him to…listen to his heart, ya know? That always works.

When was the last time we saw a 19-year old lead the league in points? I honestly have no idea. Connor is at the top of the list EVEN THOUGH HIS PRODUCTION HAS SLOWED! That’s amazing. What’s not surprising is the fact that a 19-year old would need some time to completely figure out what it means to play in the NHL. 

I think you have to separate the player from the price to be honest. Adam Larsson is a fine NHL defenseman, and I have no concern about his ability to help any team win games. He is playing 20 minutes a night, there was a time the only Oilers blue who did that got caved every night. I like Larsson plenty.

No concern. He’s been in the range of what I’d expect.

Is he doing his job? He never plays on the PP, so his overall TOI will never be that high. Plus if the team is behind by a goal late in a game he isn’t going to be on the ice. His job is to defend and shut down the opposition. I don’t see any correlation between his TOI and what Oilers gave up to acquire him. He is a completely different player. It is pointless to compare them, because many of Larsson’s attributes won’t show up on the stat sheet.

Not really. The price paid to acquire Adam Larsson is a sunk cost and should be irrelevant for the coaching staff when it comes to doling out minutes. Larsson isn’t an offensive defenceman, and that’s always going to put a hard cap on the total number of minutes he can play. He doesn’t look any different to me playing this year in Edmonton than he did in the New Jersey games I saw last season.

Yes and no. Sure he was brought in to be our top guy, but if a man like Andrej Sekera is having a huge year then I’m not going to complain either. Some guys will outplay others no matter where you should be scheduled in the depth chart.

I like Adam Larsson a lot. I think as he progresses (he’s only 24) through his career he will only get better and better but he still has some stuff to figure out. I still don’t like the trade as a one-for-one but what am I supposed to do, stay angry forever?

I think they could be very competitive if they can spend to the top of the cap this coming summer. LV might be a great destination for free agents, and if they draft well things could get fun in a hurry.

No, they won’t be competitive. They’ll be awful, as most expansion teams are in the first season.

Not a hope. They will hire a defensive-minded coach and they will have a team of older vets who work hard, and young players who they hope will develop in a few years. It is too much to ask for them to be competitive right away.

I think they could plausibly compete for a wild card spot, but I doubt they will; to do so would require turning focus to the short-term and that just isn’t a healthy strategy for a team starting from scratch. My bet is that they’ll approach the expansion process with an eye toward competing in a 3-5 year window and that part of that approach will mean being a poor team out of the gate.

I too am young enough to not know anything about prior expansions… and the only knowledge I have is of the Ottawa Red Blacks. They won a grey cup after their second season! I have a feeling that Vegas is actually going to be decent. They should be able to pick a better than the average guy from most teams, the trouble they’ll all obviously have is their chemistry/line combos/strategy in their first year.

They’re not going to get there through the expansion draft but you never know what they’ll be able to add through trades and free agency. Playing in Vegas would be a sweet gig and I don’t think it’s a stretch that guys will want to go there.

At ATB, we hear you: being a hockey fan is expensive. We want to make it cheaper for you. Tell us how you and your squad celebrate hockey and you could win $1,000! Learn more at ATB.com/yegfans.