NHL Betting Preview (April 28): Oilers vs. Kings Game 4 Odds
6 days ago
Edmonton can push Los Angeles to the brink of elimination with a win in Game 4 on Sunday. Will the Oilers dominate the Kings as they did in Game 1 and Game 3, or will Los Angeles push back, similar to how they did in Game 2? This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this series worth betting on.
Oilers vs. Kings Game 4 Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -150
- Los Angeles Kings Moneyline Odds: +125
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+170), Kings +1.5 (-205)
- Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -105, under -115)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Series Odds Update
The Oilers are now a -600 series favourite, but over (-200) 5.5 games is still a likely outcome. Edmonton also has the third-best Stanley Cup odds (5/1) at Bet365, and they are well represented in the Conn Smythe Trophy futures market. Connor McDavid is the current favourite to be named the most valuable player of the playoffs with +700 odds. Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman are both listed at +2800 to win the award.
Handicapping the Kings (45-40 SU, 39-46 ATS, 34-48 OU)
Los Angeles made changes to its penalty kill structure this season and had a lot of success. However, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Zach Hyman have picked it apart. The Oilers are 7-for-14 on the power play in the series, and McDavid has a point on all seven goals. On the other side, Edmonton has killed off all 10 of the Kings’ power play opportunities.
The Kings aren’t going to win a playoff series posting numbers like that, even if they control the game during even-strength play — which has not been the case. Los Angeles was good in Game 2, but according to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton owns 56 percent of the even-strength expected goals in the series. The Kings have had a small edge in shot attempts through three games, but that’s to be expected given how often they’ve been trailing. Only the Washington Capitals have spent more time per game trailing.
Handicapping the Oilers (51-34 SU, 40-45 ATS, 38-44 O/U)
Edmonton dominated Game 3. More importantly, it was Stuart Skinner’s best performance of the series. The Oilers’ goaltender had received harsh criticism from all corners of the hockey world, but he stopped 27 of 28 shots in the win. That should quiet the noise heading into Game 4, but the 24-year-old is still under a lot of pressure to perform. With how the Oilers are playing on special teams, it’s unlikely that Los Angeles can win a game unless they sneak four or five past Skinner.
Meanwhile, Edmonton’s best chance at beating the Kings happens when they score four or more goals. They have accomplished this feat in 11 out of the last 16 playoff games versus the Kings. Since 2022, the Oilers are 9-2 in playoff games versus the Kings when they score four or more goals, including a 5-2 record at Los Angeles. So, while it would be great if Skinner were able to shut down the Kings again, Edmonton must rely on their scoring prowess in Game 4.
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Team Betting Trends
- Games 1, 2, and 3 went over the total, with at least seven goals scored each time. Consequently, oddsmakers have adjusted the total from 6 (under -125) in the series opener to 6.5 (over -105) in Game 4.
- Nine out of the last 12 Oilers’ playoff games have featured at least seven goals. The Kings and Oilers have combined to score seven or more in 10 out of 16 playoff games since 2022.
- Edmonton has scored four or more goals in six consecutive playoff games versus the Kings. The Oilers’ team total is set at 3.5 (over +100, under -140).
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Connor McDavid has now recorded two or more points in 12 out of 16 career playoff games against Los Angeles. McDavid is priced at -140 to record at least two points in Game 4.
- McDavid’s goal prop is listed at +125 after the Oilers’ captain scored his first goal of the series in Game 3. No. 97 has registered nine shots on goal in the series, including five shots on Friday.
- Leon Draisaitl has points on five of Edmonton’s seven power play goals in the series, but that’s been overshadowed by McDavid’s seven power play points. However, while the latter is listed at -140 to score a power play point, Draisaitl is priced at +125 to register a goal or an assist with the man advantage.
- Zach Hyman added two more goals to his playoff resume on Friday, now sitting with 20 goals in 31 playoff games with Edmonton. Hyman is listed at +125 to score a goal on Sunday.
- Evander Kane made the most out of his opportunity in Game 3 with a beautiful assist and a goal of his own in just 13:52 of ice time. Kane has registered at least four shots on goal in all three games so far. He is listed at +300 to score a goal in Game 4, and his shots on goal prop is set at 2.5 (over -115).
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Sportsbooks have adjusted the odds on Edmonton’s team total slightly, but not enough. There’s plenty of evidence to suggest that the Oilers’ chances of scoring over 3.5 goals in Game 4 are better than 50-50. Edmonton’s scoring rates aren’t as good on the road as they are at Rogers Place, but this is the playoffs and they’re facing a familiar opponent. The Oilers have scored four-plus goals in five out of their last seven playoff road games against the Kings. Bet over Edmonton to go over their team total (3.5 goals) at even money.
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