Edmonton can make history on Monday night. With a win over the Florida Panthers in Game 7, the Oilers will become just the second in history to come back from an 0-3 deficit to win the Cup Final. Only four other teams have accomplished the feat in NHL playoffs history. In this article, we’ll use odds and trends to break down this winner-take-all matchup.
Oilers vs. Panthers Game 7 Odds
- Florida Panthers Moneyline Odds: -110
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -110
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers +1.5 (-275), Panthers -1.5 (+220)
- Game Total: 5 goals (over -160, under +120)
Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Oilers (15-9 SU, 10-14 ATS, 13-10-1 O/U)
When Edmonton defeated the Panthers by a score of 8-1 in Game 4, the betting market disregarded it and bet heavily on Florida to win Game 5 at home. In fact, there was so much action on the Panthers that the Oilers closed as a +145 moneyline underdog at Sports Interaction, while the Panthers were a -175 favourite. That’s not the case heading into Game 7 in Florida, which is currently priced as a pick ‘em, with each side priced at -110 odds.
Edmonton has been tested in every possible way this season, so it’s only fitting that they must pass the biggest test of all to become Stanley Cup champions. The Oilers will aim to become just the second team in history to overcome a 0-3 deficit to win the Stanley Cup Final. Only four teams have come back to win a series after falling behind 0-3 in NHL history. However, if we’ve learned anything over the last two months, it’s that if anyone can do it, it’s the Oilers. This is the third series in a row that the Oilers have trailed in these playoffs, but they are a perfect 5-0 when facing elimination.
Throughout this run, the Oilers have shown that they are more than just a couple of superstars. They’ve gotten contributions from every line, and defensively, they’ve been about as good as it gets. Both the penalty kill (which has successfully killed off 18 of Florida’s 19 power play opportunities) and the power play have been great, and goaltender Stuart Skinner has proven all of his doubters wrong. Connor McDavid is a huge favourite to win the Conn Smythe Trophy (-3000), and rightfully so, but Edmonton’s game is much more complete than it was originally thought to be.
Handicapping the Panthers (15-8 SU, 10-13 ATS, 11-11-1 O/U)
The Panthers are on the brink of the biggest choke in NHL history after missing three straight chances to claim hockey’s ultimate prize. Florida is looking to avoid losing in the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row. Florida looked unbeatable through the first three rounds, and that seemed to be the case in the first three games of the Cup Final after outscoring Edmonton 11-4. However, they allowed three goals in Game 3, and it’s been downhill ever since. The Panthers have been outscored by a combined score of 18-5 (8-1, 5-3, and 5-1) over the past three games.
According to Evolving Hockey, Edmonton has had roughly 52 percent of the expected goals, while Florida has been decisively better in only one of the six games in this series (Game 2). They have had a much tougher time generating scoring chances than they did in past rounds. The Panthers have been held to 9.7 high-danger chances per 60 minutes after generating more than 14 per 60 minutes in the first three rounds of the postseason. Florida has been good defensively, but what worked against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Boston Bruins, and New York Rangers hasn’t been effective against the Oilers, who are the best offensive team of the bunch.
Sergei Bobrovsky has been exposed, too. After allowing two or fewer goals in 13 out of his last 15 playoff games, Bobrovsky has allowed three or more goals in four consecutive games. The veteran goaltender was apparently given a day off to reset ahead of Game 7, but the confidence that the Panthers had in their netminder has most definitely been shaken, given that this is the second year in a row that he’s fallen apart in the Cup Final. Florida is 3-5 in games where they have a chance to eliminate their opponents, but this is uncharted territory for the Panthers, who have not faced elimination since last year’s playoffs.
Team Betting Trends
- The home team is 12-5 all time when the Stanley Cup Final reaches Game 7, but the road team has emerged victorious the last three times (2009 Pittsburgh Penguins, 2011 Boston Bruins, 2019 St. Louis Blues) the Cup Final has gone to Game 7.
- The total has gone over in four straight games, however, over the last three seasons, the total is 38-16-2 to the under in Games 5-7. Additionally, the under is 44-26-9 in Game 7 since ‘05, including 3-0 this season. The game total for Game 7 between the Oilers and Panthers is currently set at 5 (over -160). This marks the first time this season that a game total has been set at five.
- The Oilers have covered the puck line in four consecutive games after failing to do so in the first two games.
Player Prop Betting Trends
- Connor McDavid went pointless and did not register a shot on goal in Game 6, but he leads the way with 11 points (three goals and eight assists) in six Stanley Cup Final games. McDavid also leads the Oilers with 18 shots on goal. Draisaitl is next on the team with 16 shots on goal, but he still hasn’t found the back of the net versus the Panthers.
- Only McDavid has scored more goals and points than Warren Foegele has over the past four games. Foegele has two goals and three assists playing alongside the Oilers’ best players.
- Aleksander Barkov has two goals and three assists in the series, which ranks second on the team behind Evan Rodrigues, who has four goals and two assists.
- Matthew Tkachuk and Vladimir Tarasenko are tied for the team lead in shots on goal in the Cup Final with 15.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
Given that the total has gone over in four straight games, and the teams have combined for at least five goals in all but one game, bet on Game 7 to go over five goals at -130 odds, which are available at NorthStar Bets. This is a solid bet considering that many sportsbooks have the odds on over five goals set anywhere from -140 to -160. Florida’s identity has been that of a team that prefers to grind out wins in low-scoring games, and the betting market is anticipating that Game 7 will be just that. However, unlike in past rounds, the Panthers have not been the ones dictating the pace of play. The market seems a little too confident in historical trends heading into this matchup.
