The Oilers have dragged the Panthers back to Alberta for Game 6 after falling behind 0-3 in the best-of-7 Stanley Cup Final. Edmonton won Game 5 by a score of 5-3 and can force a Game 7 in Florida with a win on Friday. Let’s take a look at the game and the series from a betting perspective using odds and trends.

Panthers vs. Edmonton Game 6 Odds

  • Florida Panthers Moneyline Odds: +100
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -120
  • Puck Line Odds: Panthers +1.5 (-250), Oilers -1.5 (+200)
  • Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -110, under -110)

Stanley Cup Final Odds

The Stanley Cup odds (+280) at Sports Interaction imply that Edmonton has less than a 30 percent chance of winning the next two games. Probabilistically, the Oilers’ chances are about the same as successfully calling two coin flips in a row, based on the odds. Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Game 6.

Handicapping the Panthers (15-7 SU, 8-14 ATS, 10-11-1 O/U)

Matthew Tkachuk tried to back up his Mark Messier-like guarantee in Game 5, scoring a goal (his first of the series) and an assist, but the rest of Florida’s stars were quiet once again. The Panthers outscored the Oilers 3-0 when Tkachuk, Sam Bennett, and Evan Rodrigues were on the ice at 5-on-5 in Game 5, but Tkachuk could only watch in horror as his team fumbled another chance to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup.
Aleksander Barkov went pointless for the second game in a row, and the third time in four games. The same goes for Sam Reinhart, who has only one goal in the series. Carter Verhaeghe hasn’t scored since Game 1, nor has he registered a point. Evan Rodrigues and Vladimir Tarasenko lead the Panthers in goals in the Cup Final with four and two, respectively, which is far from ideal.
The mood in the series has changed because Florida’s stars have been outplayed by Edmonton’s stars, mainly McDavid and, for the second year in a row, Sergei Bobrovsky is losing steam at the worst possible time. Bobrovsky posted a .953 save percentage in the first three games against the Oilers, but he’s at .769 since then, having allowed nine goals on 39 shots in 83 minutes.
Of course, it would be foolish to count the Panthers out because of a team-wide slump, but it’s worth noting that they aren’t seeing as much support from bettors. Florida’s moneyline opened -135 and closed -175 heading into Game 5, but the market doesn’t seem to be as eager to back the Panthers in Game 6.

Handicapping the Oilers (14-9 SU, 8-15 ATS, 12-10-1 O/U)

McDavid (8-34-42) continued his historic postseason run on Tuesday by becoming the first player in NHL history to post back-to-back four-point games in the Cup Final. The Oilers’ captain is just five points away from tying Wayne Gretzky for the most points (47) in a single playoff campaign and he has already set the record for most assists (34) in a postseason. 
As a result, McDavid is now the favourite (-182) to be named the most valuable player of the NHL playoffs despite the fact that Edmonton is an underdog to win the series. In other words, it’s looking more and more like McDavid will win the Conn Smythe Trophy even if the Oilers lose. Only one skater (Reggie Leach in 1976) has won the award in a losing effort in NHL history, but only three players have scored 40 or more points in a postseason: Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, and now McDavid.
However, as McDavid noted following Tuesday’s win, it was a team effort in all situations. The power play went two for five, the penalty kill was perfect on top of scoring a shorthanded goal, and Skinner was there when his team needed him. Edmonton’s scoring depth has blossomed throughout this postseason run, and while it did take the forward group a while to get going in the Cup Final, they are firing on all cylinders now.
This series truly has been best-on-best, but Edmonton has had an edge in several categories, such as shots, chances, and goals. The Oilers have also been solid defensively, holding Florida to just 9.8 high-danger chances per 60 minutes. That’s significantly fewer than the Panthers generated in any of the previous rounds.

Team Betting Trends

  • Edmonton is now 4-0 in games where they are facing elimination, while the Panthers have gone 3-4 in games where they have had a chance to eliminate an opponent this postseason.
  • Florida covered the puck line in the first two games, but Edmonton has covered in all three games since. 50 out of 88 games this postseason have been decided by one goal, but only one out of five games have been decided by one goal in the Cup Final.
  • Games in the Cup Final are 3-2 to the over, as there have been seven or more goals scored in each of the last three games. However, over the past three postseasons, the total is 38-15-2 (69.1 percent) to the under in Games 5-7.

Player Prop Betting Trends

  • Connor McDavid has registered just four shots on goal in his last two games, but three of those shots turned into goals. McDavid is coming off his third multi-point game in a row, and the second in which he posted four points.
  • Leon Draisaitl has registered at least three shots on goal in nine out of 11 home games this postseason. Draisaitl has also registered a point in nine out of 11 home games in these playoffs.
  • Vladimir Taraensko leads the Panthers in shots on goal in the Cup Final with 16 shots in five games. Tarasenko has registered at least three shots on goal in four consecutive games.
  • Evan Rodrigues leads all Panthers players in goals and points with four goals and two assists in five games versus Edmoton. Rodrigues has gone over his shots on goal total (1.5) in each of the last four games.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Draisaitl was priced at -120 to score an anytime goal in Game 3, the Oilers first at home, but Sports Interaction now has him sitting at +170 odds. The 28-year-old hasn’t been himself in the Cup Final, posting just two assists after registering 28 points in the 18 games prior. This has led many to wonder about what kind condition he is in physically, but the current odds still are too generous to pass up. Bet on Draisaitl to score a goal at +170 odds because it’s currently the best price in the entire market.