Monday Mailbag – May 11th

It’s McDavid Monday, and you’ve all worked enough for one day as far as I’m concerned. As such, I present you with 4000 words worth of time wasting goodness! As always, I need your questions to make the mailbag work. If you have a question you’d like to ask, email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk. Until then, grab some coffee and enjoy the break from “productivity.”

Chiarelli traded away the best player in the deal. You seldom win those. Adding up the production of two players and comparing it to one player doesn’t work — you’re talking about two roster spots instead of one. Look at the trade after three or four full seasons and we’ll have a better idea. I suspect we’ll see it as lopsided for Dallas.

The trade was made for reasons other than hockey. It wasn’t based solely on the players involved, but from a pure hockey trade the Bruins lost. Seguin is an elite scorer. Chiarelli has made many other solid trades, anyone who evaluates a GM based on one trade is overlooking entire performance.

I can’t agree. Let’s use your comparison of Eriksson/Smith to Seguin. Eriksson and Smith have a combined cap hit of $7.675 million as compared to Seguin’s $5.75 million. They take up two roster spots as opposed to just one. Smith may be young and improving but he’s still nine months younger than Seguin; if we can claim that Smith’s best years are ahead of him, surely the same is true for the best player in the package. Additionally, it’s very difficult to replace Seguin – there are, by definition, only 10 top-10 NHL scorers and the teams that have them rarely have a mind to trade them. That replacement difficulty is lowered considerably for an Eriksson or Smith; there are more than 100 guys league-wide who can contribute 45-plus points and they come available in free agency every year.

I can’t comment on the “behavioral issues” because I don’t know the details (I’ve read the various reports, just like everyone else, but I wasn’t there to see what it looked like internally). What I can say is that when we look at the L.A. Kings – from the Dry Island crew to Jarret Stoll’s recent legal difficulties – I think it’s fair to say that a player can have some extremes in lifestyle and still be a valued piece of the core.

I like Chiarelli a lot. I think he’s a good general manager who over his time in Boston did far more good than harm. It’s worth noting that another bet with a developing young star (Phil Kessel) certainly turned out well for the Bruins. But I didn’t like the Seguin deal for Boston at the time and it looks lousy in hindsight, too.

Don’t trade impact players at age 20. As a Bruins fan, I can tell you it looked bad at the time and remains a bad one. I like Peter Chiarelli as a GM and think Edmonton made a terrific addition, but the Seguin trade should serve Chiarelli as a sober reminder of what happens when you trade elite youth too young.

I’ve been parroting pretty much exactly what you said verbatim since Chiarelli to Edmonton was just a rumour, and naturally a segment of Edmonton immediately started complaining…

The only thing I would add is Joe Morrow was also part of that trade and is a former 1st round pick who has had two solid seasons in the AHL and turns 23 this December. He may not be Dougie Hamilton but by all accounts he seems to be a solid blue chip defensive prospect well on his way to regular NHL duty. 

Seguin was always going to play second fiddle to Patrice Bergeron, and Claude Julien was essentially trying to turn him into a defense-first player, similar to what we saw with Eakins and Yak. It was just a weird situation top to bottom. And honestly if the worst thing you can say about the trade is Loui Ericksson ONLY got 50 points rather than 70, how bad was the trade? (Looks at the giant pile of magic beans acquired by Tambo and MacT in return for actual useful Oilers….)

I have a hard time believing that the entire story is out or will ever be as to why Seguin was traded. Does it really make sense that he would have been traded without some kind of story?

I think trying to look at “Total” production is an attempt to put lipstick on a pig. If it takes two or more people to replicate the production of a single player then it is not a wash. The circumstances are what they are but the Bruins downgraded immensely when they made that trade. There are lots of stories about what happened and some of them suggest Chiarelli’s hand was forced while others say he was complicit. Either way, if that trade was done in Edmonton and Hall was traded for 2-3 players half his ability we would be upset.

Baggedmilk:

Firstly, I think trading a 20 year old for “character issues” is pretty funny. What were the issues though? Did he just like to party, or was he going to some Eyes Wide Shut mask-wearing orgies and hoping to murder people? I don’t know, I wasn’t there. If the rub was that Seguin liked to party too much then the Bruins pulled the trigger way too fast and are now being punished for it. I can’t imagine that’s all it was, and I don’t for one minute believe that Chiarelli would make a big personnel decision like that on his own. The organization wanted to move Seguin, it wasn’t just Peter Chiarelli. Besides, that Phil Kessel trade worked out okay.

No, he can’t live up to the hype. As for a future, what’s that? Two more years? Three? The rest of his career? I’d trade him, but I don’t get a say.

Who cares about hype? Why blame a player because a GM made an asinine statement claiming he has Norris potential? Schultz needs to get stronger and work on his shot. He could be an effective PP guy who plays 3rd pairing minutes at 5-on-5. Use him in those roles and he can succeed, force feed him 25 minutes a night and he will struggle. Use players to their strengths not their weaknesses.

I don’t think he’s ever going to live up to the top-pairing defenceman hype that we heard when he joined the organization, or to Craig MacTavish’s comments at that infamous summer press conference after he inked him to that ridiculous one-year extension. 

That doesn’t mean he can’t be a useful NHL defenceman. Right now he’s probably a third-pairing even-strength option/power play specialist and he’s young enough and talented enough that it doesn’t strain credulity too much to one day imagine him as a legitimate second-pairing even-strength option.

I think there’s a chance, but he needs a veteran partner who is able to cover for the mistakes and (as he said during the exit interview) to work hard on his game. Especially passing.

He will never live up to the hype, no. But I do believe there’s still a useful player in there somewhere. He still has pretty great offensive tools, so if you pair him with a solid stay at home D-man, rather than, say, a 20 year old rookie or an AHL journeyman who skates at the speed of a glacier, I think his flaws would be less noticeable. 

And, I mean, just look at Danny Dekeyser; I recall him having a similar amount of hype as Jultz did when he finished his college career. Did he blow the doors of the league? No, but Detroit smartly put him at the bottom of the depth chart, surrounded him with ACTUAL NHLers, he learned how to play at the NHL level and he’s been a steady presence on their backend ever since. 

I think the next coach will be smart enough to use him in a way that highlights his strengths and hides his weaknesses. And if not then I’m sure the Condors will be more than happy to have a guy who lit up the AHL in his rookie pro season on their blue line.

This summer he needs to lock himself into a gym. Weight needs to be gained so he can compete in the areas in front of the net and the corners. This is the easy part. The hard part is adding that type of attitude on the ice.

He can be a very good 5th defenseman one day. Either that or he could be Teddy Purcell. He had a good pro debut but looks like he doesn’t care or doesn’t know how to be any better than what he is already. I doubt he’ll live up to the hype as that hype includes “Norris Potential” talk. I have doubts about his future in Edmonton, an expansion draft could help the team out a lot.

You don’t lead the AHL in points unless there is something going on there. Yeah, I know that Nuge, Eberle, and Hall were all in the AHL with him at that time but there’s obviously a player there. Personally, I think this is another chapter in the Oilers story of giving prospects too many minutes too soon. Schultz should never have been playing as many minutes as he has been. He should have been sheltered and playing along side a veteran that could show him the ropes, but this is the Oilers and that never happens. Remember, 28 other teams wanted Justin Schultz so is was everybody wrong, or did the Oilers screw it up? I know which way I’d bet.

Will depend largely on who he plays with and how much he plays. I think we could see a range of 55-65 points if he plays consistent top-six minutes, gets some power-play time and plays more than 70 games.

Sane people have reasonable expectations. Delusional people will be upset when he doesn’t match Crosby’s 102-point rookie season, but won’t recognize that no one in the NHL scored 100 points last year. The game is different from 2005-2006. I could see McDavid scoring 70 points, and if he does that would be an outstanding/incredible rookie season.

McDavid’s a special player, and my expectation is that we’ll see it right out of the gate. Nathan MacKinnon had less hype but scored 63 points as a rookie (he quietly saw that number drop to 38 this year) and that’s about the range I have in mind as a reasonable line in the sand.

I assume you’re talking about McDavid? I’ll say 71-80 points is a reasonable line in the sand for him as a rookie but of course a lot depends on TOI and PP time.

I think 75 to 80 points would be a reasonable expectation for McDavid. I know that he’s the “Next Crosby” so everyone assumes he’ll put up 100 or more points, but thankfully this isn’t the year after the lockout where any time a stick came within five feet of an opposing player an obstruction penalty was called (this now only happens 70% of the time). Mark Stone (22 years old) and Johnny Gaudreau (21) led the league this year with 64 points, so for an 18 year old prodigy coming straight out of junior I think a 75 point season would be a smashing success.

Good question. There probably are not enough reasonable expectations for him. The organization needs to protect him and insulate him as much as you can for a player of his level.

I’m going to assume you’re talking about McDavid. I don’t know what’s reasonable for him. 55 points? Is that reasonable? He is special. There is nothing reasonable about him. Expectations are going to vary for everyone but if we come up with something “reasonable” he will likely exceed it.

Connor McDavid is a special player and will score a lot of points in his career, but I don’t necessarily think he will tear the league a new a-hole this coming season. The last rookie to score 75+ points in a season was Patrick Kane, and that was a while ago. If McDavid can reach 70 points in his rookie season I would declare that an overwhelming success. Again, he will be playing for an Oilers team with huge holes to fill. They have a hard enough time to get it out of their own zone as it is. 

Nope. Take a look at who breaks what over the course of a season or an off-season and McKenzie is the guy.

Pretty sure neither broke Chiarelli signing…*cough, cough*… (that is a joke people)…No seriously, Bob and Elliott are both great. I don’t see any as the best. They have different strengths and different connections. Elliott’s 30-thoughts are excellent and he has done a great job of connecting to fans on social media. Bob, Dreger, Lebrun and Friedman all work hard at being an insider. It is a tough gig. As an analyst, I like Ferraro a lot. Excellent insight and he isn’t afraid to give an opinion.

I can’t comment on this too much, given that I’m employed by Sportsnet. I’ve always deeply respected McKenzie’s insight on the game and he remains a level-headed, connected and highly credible reporter. Friedman has been excellent for years; I was extremely happy to see Sportsnet bring him over from the CBC when editorial control over Hockey Night in Canada was transferred along with the NHL rights. Both are exceptional.

I’m happy both are available. I’ve been reading Bob McKenzie since his Hockey News days, so he’s still my first stop in terms of breaking news. That said, Friedman is the next stop so it’s kind of a moot point.

I would agree with that. I still have much love for Bob and his giant head filled with all sorts of hockey knowledge and amazing stories, but there’s just something about Friedman I really like. It’s probably mostly due to the fact he’ll throw in a sweet jab at Stock/Healy/Kypreos, or just straight up walk off the set when things are getting too stupid.

His 30 thoughts are great every week.

Friedman is number one for me. I watch the Sportsnet broadcasts and in addition to providing more analysis of the game than the ex players he is also their most plugged in insider. Plus he has to have the patience of a saint to deal with that panel on a daily basis.

I don’t think Friedman is necessarily “better” than McKenzie as much as I consider them equals. One thing is for sure, if Sportsnet didn’t have Elliotte Friedman that panel would be even more of a joke than it already is. 

The last appearance at The Montreal Forum by Rocket Richard. The ovation they gave Rocket brought him to tears. Wonderful moment.

Watch Bobby Orr play live. I’ve seen videos of his games and read many stories about him, but I would have loved to have seen him play live. He changed the way D-men played.

Just one moment? That’s brutally tough; there are so many. Mostly I wish I could have seen players in their primes; the Gretzky of my youth played for the Kings and the Rangers and I never saw Howe or Orr or Richard and the Lemieux I saw was an old man, still great but not what he once was. If I’m picking one moment, it’s hard to look past Game 8 of the 1972 Summit Series.

Orr beating Glenn Hall, spring 1970.

2010 Golden Goal®. I was “there” in that I was among the thousands upon thousands of wasted revellers high-fiving everyone in sight in downtown Vancouver that day, but I can’t even imagine being inside the building when Crosby scored. I feel like my soul would have left my body for good that day and I would just be a husk in the shape of a human man (which is what I assume will happen when McDavid scores the cup winning goal in RX2 in the year 2019).

Jason Gregor scoring 30 goals in Jr B.

1972 Summit Series. Henderson scores. Obviously.

I would have liked to be in the room when Bob Nicholson told MacT that he was no longer the GM of the Edmonton Oilers. MacT had one of the biggest personal 180s of all time when he went from being a GM with McDavid in his pocked to being #2 in some capacity that we still aren’t exactly sure what that is yet.

Either that or Gretzky’s 50 in 39. Who scores five goals in a game to complete a record? Gretzky. That’s who.