Monday Mailbag – Oilers Results vs Expectations

Happy Monday and welcome to a brand new edition of the Monday Mailbag. As always, I’ve taken the questions you’ve emailed me over the past week, relayed them to our writers, and copied and pasted their words of wisdom right here on the ol’ Internet machine for your education and enjoyment. Today, we’re looking at Dmitry Kulikov, re-signing free agents, defensive pairings, and a whole lot more. If you’ve got one, email it to me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk and I’ll get to you as soon as we can.

Good question. It is either Jones or Russell. Jones has played quite well of late and will play more down the stretch. I suspect both will play in the playoffs, and it might come down to if they play Montreal or Winnipeg as far as who starts game one. Russell’s health could play major factor after the Tkachuk hit. I’d think he needs to play a few games the week of May 9^th if he wants to start game one.

Kris Russell over Jones, at least to start. Experience.

It’s got to be Jones for me. Russell has struggled recently and Jones is playing his best hockey of the season. I’m not sure if that is going to change down the stretch here so I’m saying Jones will be playing most of the playoff games.

I would take Jones over Russell because I think the former is the better player right now. Russell is going to be a good seventh defenceman for this team but I think the roster is stronger with Jones on it.

He has been solid. He had one tough game with two glaring turnovers, but rest of the time he has been solid. If you don’t notice him in most games that is a good thing.

Mixed bag so far. Some good games, some so-so. He’s usually very reliable defensively, solid on the PK and makes a crisp outlet pass. He’ll improve as he’s really just settling in now.  Let’s not forget he’s only played four games here.

When the Oilers acquired him, one piece of analysis I heard was “when he makes mistakes, they’re big ones” and honestly, we’ve seen that early on. Most of the time, he’s a very good top-four defenseman who isn’t bad at transporting the puck up ice and can break up the cycle. But when he messes up, they’re ‘Grade A’ mistakes. I still like the move and I think he’ll be fine in the playoffs.

Dmitry giveth and Dmitry taketh away. For the most part, I think he’s been quietly solid but when he makes a mistake it is alarmingly bad so it will be interesting to see how the rest of this tenure goes. Overall, I’ve been mostly happy with him so far.

It would only be a one-year deal and likely similar cash as this season. His age is the risk, but I suspect Edmonton could approach it the same as last season. See what other goalies are looking for in free agency and then decide. Overpaying on term for a UFA goalie would not be a good strategy.

At age 39, you go no more than one year with Smith, even though he’s in great shape. People change their opinions quickly — look how many were unhappy he was re-signed after he struggled in that first play-in game against Chicago. Let’s see what he does this post-season. If that goes well, you offer him a contract in the same range as what he’s making now.

I think if the price is right, and I would assume that Smith won’t ask for a lot, then I think you have to consider bringing him back. If you can find a way to pawn off the Mikko Koskinen contract and pair Smith with a younger and better goaltender (Kuemper, Merzlikins), then that would be preferred. I could see Smith coming back on another one-year, bonus-heavy contract, but I don’t think Koskinen will be the other goaltender in the tandem.

Haha can you imagine if we would have been having this conversation in the offseason? Classic. I think Smith probably earned a new deal and I imagine Holland will give it to him. As for what that looks like, I’d bet on low money and lots of bonuses on a one-year deal.

I suspect they will test the free agent market first. They have Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Kassian and Archibald on RW. They’ll want to add a bottom-six winger with speed, and Neal and Puljujarvi can rotate in the net-front role on the PP.

Tough call, one I’m not willing to make until we see what happens in the playoffs. Oilers have depth on the right side and other PP options with Puljujarvi and Neal, if he’s still here. Not going to put McLeod or Holloway ahead of Chiasson in the forward mix yet, but they will be a factor down the road as well. The question is when.

I would consider it if the deal was less than $1.5 million. If it’s going to cost you more than that on a one-year deal then I would walk away. Puljujarvi or Yamamoto can play in front of the net on the powerplay and I just don’t see the need to spend more than $1.5 million on a guy who really doesn’t do a lot at even-strength most of the time. Cheap deal? Sure. Otherwise, I’m letting him walk.

I could see bringing Chiasson back at a deal around $1-1.5 million but anything over that would be too much. I know the Oilers need veterans but I think there will be a lot of bottom six type of guys looking for contracts this offseason, which means that Ken Holland can be a more picky.

They have been what I expected in the standings, but their improvement in reducing GA has exceeded my expectations. I think their window to be a legit Cup contender begins next season. This off-season will be very important.

They’ve met them so far. They’re where I thought they’d be and where I picked them. Playoffs will dictate overall.

They’ve exceeded them. I had hope that they could finish in the top two of the division but I didn’t think they would have a playoff spot secured this early on and I didn’t envision them being this consistent. Aside from a slow start to the year, they’ve been a very tough team to beat most of the time and I just didn’t see that coming. It’s been a really good regular season for a handful of reasons and hopefully, they can roll this into playoff success.

They’re right in line with my expectations. Before the season started, I said they would finish in the top-three in the North Division and that’s exactly where they’re at. It hasn’t been a perfect year, but it has been a fun one.

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