With the series tied at two apiece after an unbelievable comeback win in Game 4, the Edmonton Oilers are back home to host the Florida Panthers in Game 5 of the Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place. The Oilers are 28-17 all-time in Game 5s in the playoffs, with 13 of those wins coming at home. Let’s put positive vibes out there that this trend can continue.
The Oilers became the first road team in Stanley Cup Final history in the last 100+ years to come back from a three-goal deficit and win, and only the seventh team to record multiple multi-goal comeback wins in a single Stanley Cup Final. Needless to say, Thursday’s 5-4 OT win was as rare as it was beautiful (and stressful). We were all down bad in the first intermission, and that made the comeback extra special, but it sure would be nice if we didn’t have to rely on historical heroics to pull off wins.
Looking ahead to Game 5, it would be super cool if the boys could start on time this time. In Games 3 and 4, the Panthers dominated the first 20 minutes, and it was no surprise to see them take the lead both times. The Oilers can’t let that happen tonight. They need to be ready to go from the opening draw and put the pedal to the floor while avoiding this endless parade to the box. Edmonton took three penalties in the first period of Game 4, ended up down by two goals in a snap, and gifted the Panthers what initially felt like an insurmountable lead. Cannot. Happen. Again.
As much as the comeback win was beyond fun and arguably the greatest hockey game I’ve ever been to, the Oilers probably won’t be able to rally for four straight goals against the Panthers like that again. Either way, I’d rather not find out. The much smarter approach would be to not put themselves in that situation in the first place. Of course, that’s easier said than done against an opponent as strong as the Panthers, but even so, coming out strong has to be the goal. We all know how loud the crowd at Rogers Place will be for the start of this hockey game, and I’m hopeful the boys can feed off that energy and come out firing.
From the Panthers’ perspective, I expect them to come out firing even heavier than they did in the last two games. Florida is probably PISSED about letting the Oilers off the mat in Game 4, and every single one of us should expect nothing but their best, especially in the early first period. The Panthers are going to want revenge for what happened two nights ago, and it will be up to Calvin Pickard and the freshly squeezed line combos to find a way to navigate that storm without falling apart this time. We can’t have a third straight game of gifting the opponent an early lead and expecting the fellas to come roaring back.
Let’s see what the numbers say…
THE NUMBERS
OILERS | PANTHERS | |
RECORD | 14-6 | 14-7 |
WIN/LOSS STREAK | W1 | L1 |
GOALS FOR | 79 | 84 |
GOALS AGAINST | 63 | 53 |
POWER PLAY% | 26.7 | 26.0 |
PENALTY KILL% | 66.2 | 85.9 |
AVG. SHOTS/FOR | 32.7 | 28.8 |
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST | 28.9 | 27.2 |
TEAM SAVE% | .920 | .917 |
CORSI FOR% | 50.90 | 53.49 |
PDO | 1.018 | 1.035 |
TEAM SHOOTING% | 9.80 | 11.79 |
EXPECTED GOALS FOR% | 53.43 | 53.68 |
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
- Connor McDavid has at least a point in 11 of the 13 career Game 5s he has played in (8G, 13A) in the NHL playoffs. Leon Draisaitl, fittingly enough, has also recorded at least a point in 11 of the 13 career Game 5s he has played in (6G, 13A).
- Meanwhile, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has 12 points (3G, 9A) over the last 12 Game 5s he has played in. With 67 points (20G, 47A) over the past four playoffs, RNH has the seventh most points by any NHLer in the postseason over that span.
- Viktor Arvidsson is back in the lineup after missing Game 3, and he’s picked up an assist (0G, 3A) in each of the last three Game 5s he’s dressed for.
LINE COMBINATIONS
Oilers
Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Brown
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Perry
J. Skinner – Henrique – Frederic
Kane – Janmark – Arvidsson
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Perry
J. Skinner – Henrique – Frederic
Kane – Janmark – Arvidsson
Kulak – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Ekholm – Walman
Nurse – Stecher
Ekholm – Walman
Pickard
The Oilers will run with mostly the same lineup for Game 5, apart from Calvin Pickard getting the start and Viktor Arvidsson being swapped in on the fourth line for Kasperi Kapanen. The other notable change is that Evander Kane will also start on the fourth line, which I suspect is due to the penalty trouble he has been in lately. When you’ve got a series as tight as this one — how else would you describe three out of our games going to overtime — it’s the small tweaks and adjustments that are the difference between winning and losing. It will be fascinating to see whether Knoblauch can pull the strings correctly once more.
Panthers
Rodrigues – Barkov – Reinhart
Verhaeghe – Bennett– Tkachuk
Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
Greer – Nosek – Gadjovich
Verhaeghe – Bennett– Tkachuk
Luostarinen – Lundell – Marchand
Greer – Nosek – Gadjovich
Forsling – Ekblad
Mikkola – Jones
Schmidt – Kulikov
Mikkola – Jones
Schmidt – Kulikov
Bobrovsky
You know Paul Maurice is going to have his team fired up to steal another game at Rogers Place, especially after the way things fell off the rails for the Panthers in Game 4. Even though that loss was demoralizing in the moment, there’s no way the Panthers are going to let that sadness carry over into Saturday night. They’re too seasoned and too good of a road team to have their spirits broken that easily. Frankly, I expect the Panthers’ best game of the series.
WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…
Edmonton has built a strong “team of destiny” vibe throughout its playoff run. The Panthers seemed to kill that vibe with the double-overtime win in Game 2 and the blowout in Game 3. Thanks to Florida’s god-awful performance in the second period and their inability to finish in the first half of the overtime, that vibe is back. The Panthers’ uncharacteristic gagging up of multi-goal leads in Game 1 and now Game 4 could very well cost them another title. They are going to deliver a huge effort in Edmonton in Game 5. With the way the Panthers are playing at home, they might have to win twice at Rogers Place to claim another crown. I’d never count this team out, but at moment this feels like a costly defeat. A tenth postseason road win on Saturday is needed to change the narrative.
TONIGHT…
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers finally score the first goal of the game, the crowd erupts, and the boys keep the pedal to the floor en route to a 5-3 win.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: The new line combos from practice will not last more than a period.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Edmonton Oilers will get more power play opportunities than the Florida Panthers. Dare to dream. Oh, and a Jeff Skinner goal. Why not?
