MY TAKE: OILERS 2016-17
7 years ago
I’ve got a better feeling about the Edmonton Oilers heading into the 2016-17 NHL season than I’ve had in a long time. Optimism among fans abounds, as it always does at this time of year, and I think there’s some pretty good reasons for that.
Connor McDavid is a year older and, from where I sit, ready to take another step up from his injury-shortened rookie season. I like some of the moves GM Peter Chiarelli has made. I see more depth at forward and on the blueline than there was a year ago. And, of course, there’s spanking new Rogers Place, taking Edmonton from having one of the worst buildings in the league to one of the best.
For me, though, that better feeling doesn’t translate to the Oilers going from the 70 points they amassed last season to a playoff berth this season. I do think they’ll stay in the conversation longer than they have in recent years – I know, they just have to be in contention in January to achieve that – but will fall short.
THE CRYSTAL BALL
In the roundtable we ran today, I pegged the Oilers to finish fifth in the Pacific Division with 84 points, an improvement of 14 points over last season. I think that will put them within single digits of a post-season berth. The cut-off point in the Western Conference last season was Minnesota, with 87 points. That’s a little on the low end most seasons.
Predictions, of course, are nothing more than guesses. Some educated, some less so. When we’re right, we crow, “I called it.” When we’re wrong, not so much. Injuries play into things. Rosters can change drastically over the course of a season. I think I had the Oilers finishing with 82 points a year ago. Then, McDavid busted his collarbone. What we see today doesn’t necessarily apply to tomorrow. With what I know today, I have the Oilers close, but with no cigar. My reasons why later.
The most optimistic prediction I’ve come across from a member of the mainstream media comes from Larry Fisher, who is on staff at the Kelowna Daily Courier and contributes at The Hockey Writers. Fisher, who made a trip to Edmonton during the pre-season, has the Oilers finishing second in the Pacific Division and fifth in the Western Conference. You can read Fisher’s take here.
At the other end of the spectrum, Kevin Allen, who has covered the NHL for decades at USA Today, doesn’t see the Oilers gaining much traction in the standings this season. He’s got them finishing sixth in the Pacific Division with 77 points and has them 12th in the conference. You can read his item here.
THE WAY I SEE IT
I think Fisher is being overly optimistic and that Allen is a touch pessimistic. Here’s where I sit and why:
- I don’t think McDavid’s prolific production (1.07 PPG) as a rookie in just over half-a-season was a fluke or a one-off. I didn’t see him scoring at the rate he did (I had him at .89 PPG), but he more than won me over. To be such a driver as an 18-year-old is ridiculous. I think he’ll improve slightly on that PPG mark and that he’ll stay healthy enough to finish among the top-five in the Art Ross Trophy race.
- If McDavid stays healthy and Todd McLellan plays him mostly with Milan Lucic and Jordan Eberle, I see both of them possibly having career years. I pegged Lucic for 24 goals in the roundtable and can see him taking a run at his career-high 62 points (2010-11 with Boston). I’ve got Eberle scoring 30 goals. He had 34 goals in 2011-12 to go with 76 points. I think he’ll push that. Could be a helluva first line.
- While I think the Oilers will score enough, that’ll be a moot point if they don’t defend better and cut down their goals against by 30-35 goals. I think the blue line group assembled now is capable of contributing significantly to improving the team’s overall defensive play. Adam Larsson is the biggest single factor in that. He defends first. He eats minutes, He’ll get the tough match-ups. In tandem with Oscar Klefbom, they give the Oilers as good a first pairing as they’ve had in some time. I like the addition of Kris Russell and the re-signing of Eric Gryba. I like it that having at least a bit of depth should prevent Darnell Nurse and Brandon Davidson from being forced into minutes they can’t handle.
- With the additions of Patrick Maroon and Zack Kassian last season and Lucic this off-season, the Oilers have the kind of size and physicality that will prevent them from being pushed out of games the way they have been too often in the past. Most important, in Maroon and Lucic, the Oilers have added size, grit and skill in the top nine. You can’t stay in physical games when the only players with any edge are fourth-liners.
I still have questions, of course. The defence as a whole is better, but is it good enough defensively and in transitioning the puck? Are Lucic and McDavid a fit? We don’t know yet. Depth in the goal crease? I’m sold on Cam Talbot, but heaven help the Oilers if anything happens to him injury-wise (the same thing can be said of most teams losing a starting goaltender). With Nail Yakupov traded and Kris Versteeg signing in Calgary, the Oilers are committed to Jesse Puljujarvi on RW. Not sure he’s ready.
The Oilers have a very favourable schedule to begin the season and we’ll get some answers soon enough, starting Wednesday when the Flames come calling. For the first time in a long time, I don’t see a playoff position out of the realm of possibility for the Oilers, even though I have them on the outside looking in again.
WHILE I’M AT IT
- Nobody liked the return for Yakupov in the trade that sent him to St. Louis. How could you? That said, did you really expect Chiarelli to get more? What’s your over/under on goals, assists and games played for Yakupov with the Blues this season? I don’t like Yak’s chances of fitting in with the demands Ken Hitchcock makes of his players. I don’t think he lasts the season.
- I thought that Versteeg would be a useful player here and give the Oilers a pretty solid right side. With that going sideways in concert with Yakupov out of the mix, the Oilers are in danger of rushing yet another player, Puljujarvi, into the fray. Bad idea.
Listen to Robin Brownlee Wednesdays and Thursdays from 3 p.m. to 5 p.m. on the Jason Gregor Show on TEAM 1260.
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