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NASHVILLE: DOUBLE FISTING FRIDAY

Jason Gregor
11 years ago
*We encourage everyone to drink responsibly.*
Friday is one of the best days of week. The work week is over, you look forward to a few days off and you’ve usually got something planned. Most of you will watch tonight’s game in Nashville despite how frustrated you were watching last night’s game in Detroit.
That’s what Oiler fans do. You’re a veteran when it comes to dealing with hockey disappointment. You loathe the feeling, yet you still show up and watch the next game. Despite this seemingly endless cycle of losing, you still find the strength and courage to watch your beloved Oilers.

You went to bed last night with the intention to do anything but watch the Oiler game tonight. However, just like when you know that extra shooter at 1 a.m. will make you feel worse in the morning, you just can’t say no, and tonight you will hunker down and watch the Oilers battle the Predators.
Don’t worry you aren’t alone. Thousands of Oiler fans feel the exact same way, and if you want company to drown your sorrows you’ll find hundreds of Oiler fans watching at the Pint off Whyte tonight.

LINEUP

At this point does it really matter? Just ice 18 skaters who will play smart and with the intensity and passion necessary to compete in the NHL.
Ales Hemsky will be a game time decision after being hit by a puck last night. If he can’t go Lennart Petrell or Ben Eager draw in. Not a great trade off.
Also Chris Vande Velde has been sent down to OKC, which is a bit odd considering Shawn Horcoff isn’t ready yet. Moving Smyth back to C, where he has to skate more, on back-to-back nights is a tad perplexing.
This team’s "Give-A-Crap" meter needs to increase, so who plays where is secondary.
Devan Dubnyk is a better goalie than Yann Danis. Dubnyk can handle playing back-to-back and on paper he gives them the best chance to win, which is why he’ll start tonight. Many didn’t like the first goal last night, and I can respect that, but until the Oilers produce some offence it is hard to blame the goalie.
It might not be fair, but Dubnyk has to stand on his head until the Oilers score the first goal of the game. If they score first they will have a chance.

QUICK HITS

Some have suggested that hitting can impact the outcome of games and some say it doesn’t. 
It is hard to argue either side with any accuracy, since the statisticians/hit counters from building to building all judge a hit differently, but that is all we have to go on so let’s take a close look at the Oilers record when they out hit the opposition and when they get out hit.
I didn’t include the four games that went to SO, since winning or losing that way isn’t "real" hockey. The Oilers went 2-2 in shootout.
Let’s start with games the Oilers get out shot, but they out hit the opposition. 
LocationDec Opp GF GA SF SA HFHA
RoadLMIN2421431615
RoadLCGY3420351914
RoadOCHI2319344229
RoadWCBJ3114402613
RoadLDET3022282615
Not great. They are 1-3-1 and the only win came when Devan Dubnyk was outstanding.
Here are games where the Oilers have out hit the opposition, but this time they out shot them or were tied in shots. Tied in shots or hits only happened once, so I chose to keep it in. 
LocationDec Opp GF GA SF SA HFHA
HomeLDAL1436292625
RoadWDAL5138342928
HomeWCOL6456293433
HomeLMIN3128283419
Oilers went 2-2. What is interesting is that in the nine games the Oilers have out hit the opposition 6 came on the road and 3 came at home. Tyler Dellow wrote an article that illustrated how across the league the home building usually marks hits in favour of the home team, but so far this year that isn’t the case with the Oilers.
In total the Oilers are 3-5-1 in games where they’ve out hit the opposition.
Here is the Oilers record when they’ve been out hit and out shot. 
LocationDec Opp GF GA SF SA HFHA
RoadLSTL2417301627
HomeLLAK1324381732
RoadLDET1224301424
RoadLCOL1326401625
HomeLSJS3629311113
HomeOVAN2325401719
RoadWPHX2121282444
HomeWCOL4127382526
The Oilers are 2-5-1 and not surprisingly these games were some of their worst efforts of the season.
Lastly, here is the Oilers record in games they’ve been out hit, but out shot the opposition.
HomeWLAK2139311218
HomeODAL2329281012
The Oilers went 1-0-1. Also of note they were out hit in 6 home games and 4 road games. When you consider Dellow’s article about home bias, it means either the Oilers stats guys call it as they see it, or they used their bias just to make it look close. Likely the former.

TOTALS

The Oilers are 3-5-1 when they’ve out hit the opposition and are 3-5-2 when they’ve been out hit. Basically they have the same record whether they out hit a team or get out hit. They lose either way, which is the most concerning.
I don’t believe the majority of hits have a direct factor in the outcome of most games, the odd big hit that leads directly to a goal can, but most are used to hopefully wear down the opposition or make them rush a pass that could lead to a scoring chance.
When I suggest the Oilers need to be grittier and tougher it isn’t just about hits, far from it actually. I’ve never said they just need a guy who can hit. I wrote yesterday why I think they added Mike Brown, because he’ll be an improvement over Ben Eager. Brown won’t be taking minutes away from more "skilled" players.
Make no mistake, when I talk about the need for grit and toughness it is more about a dedication to out working the opposition. Stop turning the puck over at the offensive blueline (mental toughness), don’t be afraid to take the puck to the net and win more one-on-one battles. Some of those battles will involve body contact, but many  will just be a flat out battle to get the puck. The Oilers need to start winning more of them and start playing smarter.
The bigger concern for the Oilers is their inability to get shots on net. Not surprisingly the Oilers are 2-8-2 when they’ve been out shot and 3-2-1 when they’ve outshot the opposition. Again, just using shot totals as the main factor in losses would be deceiving as well, but it does give you an indication of how the game will end.
Take last night for instance. The Oilers were outshot 28-22 which doesn’t look awful, but David Staples had the scoring chances were 22 to 6. That’s brutal.
Either way the Oilers need to improve many aspects of their game, but suggesting that hitting hurts the Oilers is misleading. They have much bigger concerns that if they are hitting too much.

POSITIVE FRIDAY

GAME DAY PREDICTION: The good news is that the Oilers can’t possibly play worse than they did last night, and last year they crushed the Predators 6-2 and 6-3 in Nashville. I see a better effort, but it results in a 3-2 SO loss.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The sight of Adrianna Lima gets you in a better mood. Sometimes you just need some "Lima-Time." With Horcoff’s return getting closer, many will say how much the team misses him. Of course this means the end of the world is coming, but at leat you got to see Lima one more time.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Lima will read this post and send me a tweet thanking me for the support. She also offers to mail 100 Nation readers a never-been-seen-before-behind-the-scenes calender of her most recent photo shoot if the Oilers win. Just when you thought a loss couldn’t hurt anymore than it does now…. 

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