Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Sunday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Washington Capitals.
Oilers vs. Capitals Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -123
- Washington Capitals Moneyline: +111
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+197), Capitals +1.5 (-229)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -101, Under -112)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (34-22 SU, 20-36 ATS, 25-30-1 O/U)
Edmonton and Philadelphia traded goals through the first half of Saturday’s game, but after the Oilers’ third goal tied it 3-3, the Flyers pulled away with little pushback from the road team. Expected goals were roughly even at the midway point of the second period, but from that point on, Philadelphia controlled 66.4 percent of the expected goals.
It wasn’t an easy game for Stuart Skinner, but it was another poor performance when the Oilers needed more from him. Skinner allowed five goals on 31 shots, though to be fair, Edmonton struggled defensively. The Oilers gave up nearly four expected goals while generating just 2.11 themselves. They were also outshot 32-18, including 23-10 over the final two periods.
There were some positives, such as Matt Savoie’s strong forecheck leading to Leon Draisaitl’s 41st goal of the season. Draisaitl also recorded his 30th multi-point game. John Klingberg’s first goal as an Oiler was another bright spot, but at even strength, Edmonton controlled just 42.79 percent of the expected goals and 39.36 percent of the shots when Klingberg was on the ice.
Coming out of a long break, you never know what to expect, and the Oilers will likely be better on Sunday. But this road trip isn’t getting any easier. Philadelphia was the game they should have won, while the rest of the matchups are ones they’re more likely to lose—including Sunday’s game in Washington. Edmonton played well against the Capitals on Jan. 21 at Rogers Place, but Washington still came away with the win and has been playing even better since.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers rank seventh in even-strength expected goals (54.42 percent) over the last month, while Washington ranks 12th (51.98 percent), so there isn’t much separating these two teams. In fact, their goal shares are nearly identical.
Handicapping the Capitals (24-33 SU, 28-29 ATS, 26-29-2 O/U)
Saturday’s game in Washington also appeared to be a back-and-forth affair when Sidney Crosby evened the score at two goals a piece, but just like the Oilers’ game, the home team pulled away midway through the second period. The Capitals scored four unanswered goals in the second period to take a 6-2 lead before outscoring the Penguins 2-1 in the third to win the game 8-3. That said, the Capitals did lose Tom Wilson following a cross-check from Ryan Graves.
Pierre-Luc Dubois led the way with three assists in the game, while Jakub Chychrun scored two of Washington’s five second-period goals. In total, seven players had multi-point games for the Capitals on Sunday, however, Alex Ovechkin was not one of them. Ovechkin didn’t score a point, let alone a goal, so on top of having a five-game point streak snapped, he’s still stuck at 26 goals on the season having not scored in his last two games.
Ovechkin still needs 16 goals to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal scoring record, but with just 26 games remaining, it’s looking more and more unlikely. Of course, we shouldn’t count Ovechkin out just yet, but he’ll have to score at a higher rate than he has in his career to make it happen before the end of the 2024-25 season.
Washington only controlled 51 percent of the expected goals and 54 percent of the shot attempts in the game, but as has been the case a lot this season, they had much better goaltending thanks to Logan Thompson. Charlie Lindgren will likely be in goal on Sunday, but while his record (12-9-3) isn’t as good as Calvin Pickard’s 14-5 record, they have similar save percentages and Lindgren has been much better than Pickard through the lens of goals saved above expected.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Capitals
Washington Capitals Moneyline (+111) at Pinnacle
The Oilers haven’t been a reliable bet as road favorites this season, so it’s a bit surprising to see the Capitals listed as home underdogs for Sunday’s matinee. Washington is 18-10 when listed as the underdog this season for a total profit of 13.83 units, which ranks first in the NHL. The Capitals are also 6-4 as home underdogs year-to-date, so while I do expect Edmonton to put forth a better effort, I’m going to take the home team on the moneyline.
