Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Philadelphia Flyers.
Oilers vs. Flyers Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -182
- Philadelphia Flyers Moneyline: +162
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+137), Flyers +1.5 (-156)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -115, Under +102)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (34-21 SU, 20-35 ATS, 24-30-1 O/U)
As great as it was to see Connor McDavid and Team Canada emerge victorious in the 4 Nations Face-Off, Oilers fans must be starting to miss watching their team play at Rogers Place. While they’ll get their fill of Oilers hockey with back-to-back matinee games this weekend, it will be a while before Edmonton plays on home ice, as the team is set to embark on a five-game Eastern Conference road trip.
Edmonton will face some of the league’s top teams on the trip, including Washington, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Carolina. However, the Oilers will begin with a matchup against the Flyers in Philadelphia.
McDavid is expected to be in the lineup after stating he didn’t plan on taking any games off following his overtime winner in the tournament final. He even received an invite to fly back with Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, and head coach John Tortorella on the Flyers’ charter from Boston, according to Sportsnet’s Mark Spector. However, with the short turnaround, the Oilers won’t have a morning skate due to the early start time.
Matt Savoie will make his Oilers debut on Saturday after being called up from Bakersfield. The 21-year-old has recorded 13 goals and 24 assists in 45 games with the Condors this season, ranking second on the team. Savoie skated on a line with Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin at Wednesday’s practice, but it’s unclear if he’ll remain in that spot at puck drop on Saturday.
Stuart Skinner will start on Saturday, as confirmed by head coach Kris Knoblauch. The 26-year-old struggled in his last start, allowing three goals on 12 shots in the first period against Colorado, prompting Knoblauch to pull him and criticize his performance afterward. Skinner is 2-3-1 since Jan. 18 but has won his last three games against the Flyers. He’s 3-0-1 with a .938 save percentage and a 1.96 goals-against average against Philadelphia in his career.
From a betting perspective, the Oilers have been a profitable road team, but only because they’ve won all four games in which they were underdogs. Edmonton has gone 12-9 straight up as a road favorite this season, which hasn’t been good enough to be profitable in that spot. As a result, the Oilers moneyline odds have shrunk from where they originally opened.
Handicapping the Flyers (24-33 SU, 28-29 ATS, 26-29-2 O/U)
Philadelphia is technically still in the mix for a playoff spot, sitting just six points back of Detroit for the final wild-card spot. However, the Flyers are tied for the most games played in the Eastern Conference, and six other teams are between them and the Red Wings.
Poor goaltending is the biggest reason the Flyers are in this position. The team ranked 32nd in save percentage before the holiday break, but Samuel Ersson has been solid since Philadelphia returned to action on Dec. 28. The 25-year-old is 9-4-1 since then, ranking 15th in save percentage and 20th in goals saved above expected—numbers comparable to Stuart Skinner’s over that span. Ersson also played well for Sweden when called upon, stopping 32 shots in a winning effort versus the United States.
However, while the Flyers’ goaltending has improved, their offense has fallen off. Although Philadelphia wasn’t great offensively to begin with—ranking 17th in goals per 60 minutes as of New Year’s Eve—only two teams have scored fewer goals per 60 minutes since Jan. 1. The Flyers have also lost three of four games since making a major trade with the Calgary Flames, in which they sent Joel Farabee and Morgan Frost west in exchange for Andrei Kuzmenko, Jakob Pelletier, a 2025 second-round pick, and a 2028 seventh-round pick.
Kuzmenko is expected to make his Flyers debut on Saturday after sorting out his work visa issues. He’s expected to play a role in improving Philadelphia’s bottom-five power play, while Jakob Pelletier was also a full participant in practice for the first time. The team also announced Friday that forwards Owen Tippett and Ryan Poehling, as well as defensemen Rasmus Ristolainen and Egor Zamula, will all be available to return to the lineup. So, as long as Konecny and Sanheim are good to go following the 4 Nations Face-Off, this will be the first time the Flyers have been at full strength since the trade.
The Flyers have gone 4-6 in their last 10 meetings against the Oilers, including a 4-3 overtime loss in Edmonton on Oct. 15, which marked the Oilers’ first win of the season. Philadelphia hasn’t performed well as an underdog this season either. In fact, the Flyers have been the second-least profitable underdog in the NHL year-to-date and the second-worst home underdog.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Flyers
Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal (-103) at Pinnacle
While much of the excitement surrounding the Oilers’ return to the ice will center on McDavid, expect Draisaitl to pick up right where he left off before the break. Draisaitl is the current favorite to win the Hart Trophy, and he’s a virtual lock to win the Rocket Richard Trophy as the league’s top goal scorer. The 29-year-old has 40 goals in 55 games, seven more than the next-best player, and he was on fire before the regular season paused for the 4 Nations Face-Off. Draisaitl scored in seven of his last 10 games before the break, totaling nine goals, and he also scored six goals in his last eight games against Philadelphia.
