NHL Betting Preview (Feb. 26): Oilers vs. Kings Odds

Photo credit:Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew MacNeil
4 months ago
Edmonton’s bid to climb the ranks in the Pacific Division has hit a snag with the Oilers’ winless streak at home, now standing at 0-3 in their five-game homestand. With just two games remaining at Rogers Place, their focus shifts to salvaging points. However, facing the Los Angeles Kings on Monday marks the Oilers’ eighth game in a gruelling 14-day stretch, and that presents a tough challenge.

Kings vs. Oilers Odds

  • Los Angeles Moneyline Odds: +135
  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -165
  • Puck Line Odds: Kings +1.5 (-175), Oilers -1.5 (+135)
  • Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -115, under -105)
All odds courtesy of Betway.

About the Oilers (33-22 SU, 27-28 ATS, 25-27 O/U)

Edmonton went 14 games without allowing more than three goals in a game during their 16-game win streak, but the Oilers have allowed three or more goals in each of their last nine games. Moreover, the Oilers have allowed at least four goals in six of their last nine games, including their last four home games. It’s no wonder they’ve got 4-5 straight up since the All-Star break.
During this stretch, the Oilers have posted a 5-on-5 expected goal share of 59.8 percent, per Evolving Hockey, but their 5-on-5 goal differential is just +0.06 (per 60 minutes) thanks to a 50.5 percent goal share. Edmonton’s expected goal share has also dropped four percentage points since All-Star weekend. That still ranks among the top-10, but it’s below the standard they had previously set.

About the Kings (29-27 SU, 25-31 ATS, 21-33 O/U)

On the surface, you’d think that there aren’t a lot of similarities between these two teams stylistically. Edmonton has a lot more scoring power than the Kings do, after all. But, in terms of shot generation, for and against, they look like carbon copies of one another. Now, you start to see where the Oilers pull away when you compare their expected goals to the Kings, but the gap still isn’t that wide.
The Kings went on a brutal run following the holiday break, but they’ve won seven of their last nine games and they are now in a good position to make the playoffs. In fact, a win over the Oilers on Monday would put them ahead of Edmonton in the standings, with 60 points. Of course, the Oilers still own the tiebreaker, but Los Angeles has found a way to win 15 out of 29 road games in regulation this season.
This is the first half of a back-to-back for the Kings, as they’ll head south to play the Flames in Calgary on Tuesday.


Last Matchup

Los Angeles shutout the Oilers at home on Feb. 10th by a score of 4-0. The first period was scoreless, but Pierre-Luc Dubois and Trevor Lewis found the back of the net in the second to put the Kings up 2-0. Quinton Byfield added two goals in the third, including one into the empty net, to secure the win for his team. The shots were even at 26 a piece, but it’s worth noting that this game was the second half of a back-to-back for the Oilers. Edmonton went into that game with -124 moneyline odds.

Key Injuries

No injuries for the home team, but Kings’ forward Viktor Arvidsson is expected to be out until at least March 16th due to an upper-body injury. The 30-year-old forward has played in just two games this season. Defenceman Mikey Anderson and forward Carl Grundstrom are also injured. Both are expected to be out until March 9th.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the starting lineups and goaltenders.

Team Betting Trends

  • The Oilers are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 meetings with the Kings, but 6-4 as the home team.
  • Los Angeles is 7-3 straight up in its last 10 games overall, and 5-5 in the last 10 road games. The Kings are 6-4 on the road in their last 10 as the underdog.
  • In the last 10 meetings between the Kings and Oilers, they are 6-4 to the under and the two teams have split the puck line, covering five times each.

Player Prop Betting Trends

  • Connor McDavid has 22 points in his last 10 games but 21 of those points have been assists. McDavid has scored just once on his last 33 shots on goal. McDavid has a goal and an assist in two games versus the Kings this season but was held pointless on Feb. 10th in Los Angeles.
  • Leon Draisaitl has put up five goals and 14 points in his last 10 games, but he’s scored nine goals and seven assists in his last 10 games versus the Kings.
  • Kings’ forward Quinton Byfield has potted four goals and five assists in his last 10 games. Byfield has two goals and two assists in two games versus the Oilers this season.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Given how Edmonton has been playing since the NHL returned to action, it’s tough to justify betting on them to win a game in which their odds are -165. And, because the puck line is correlated to the moneyline odds, it would also be ill-advised to bet on them to win by two or more goals. This should be a tightly contested game, and with four of the last six meetings totalling fewer than 60 shots on goal, betting under 62.5 total shots on goal (-116) might just be worth the sweat. Neither team has generated more than 28 shots on goal in either of the two meetings this season.
Bet under 62.5 total shots on goal (-116)

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