Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Sunday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Winnipeg Jets.
Oilers vs. Jets Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -115
- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline: -105
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+200), Jets -1.5 (-250)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Oilers (46-33 SU, 28-51 ATS, 35-43-1 O/U)
The Oilers finally booked their ticket to the Stanley Cup Playoffs with a 4–2 win over San Jose on Friday, but they were in worse shape following the game. Defenseman Mattias Ekholm returned from a seven-game absence but lasted only two shifts.
Now, reports suggest that Ekholm will not only miss the remainder of the regular season, but his entire season could be over. Zach Hyman also suffered an undisclosed injury in the second period of Friday’s game and did not return.
This puts Edmonton in a tough spot heading into Sunday’s matchup against the Jets, as Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jake Walman, Trent Frederic, and John Klingberg are also out with injuries. Stuart Skinner will return to action on Sunday, making his first start since March 26, but he hasn’t been much better than Calvin Pickard in recent months, so I’m not convinced that’ll make much of a difference.
Connor McDavid has carried the team since returning, scoring three points on Wednesday versus St. Louis and four more in Friday’s win over the Sharks, but it’s a big ask to expect him to lead this depleted roster to victory against the NHL’s top team. The Oilers have lost both meetings with the Jets this season, falling 6–0 in the season opener and 4–3 in overtime on March 20.
Edmonton hasn’t played poorly by any means—in fact, they’ve performed well despite the slew of injuries. The Oilers rank third in shot attempt share and fourth in expected goals percentage at five-on-five over the last month. Offense has been limited, though, especially on the road. The Oilers have scored three or fewer goals in 14 straight road games since returning from the 4 Nations Face-Off break.
Handicapping the Jets (55-25 SU, 41-39 ATS, 33-44-3 O/U)
Winnipeg clinched the top seed in the Western Conference with a 5–4 shootout win over the Chicago Blackhawks on Saturday. The Jets haven’t secured the Presidents’ Trophy yet, but they hold a five-point lead over the Washington Capitals.
The Jets had to overcome a two-goal deficit early in Chicago and then fell behind again in the third period, but Josh Morrissey scored his second goal of the game to tie things up late in regulation, and Cole Perfetti sealed the deal with the shootout winner. Kyle Connor also scored and added an assist. However, the biggest takeaway from Saturday’s game is that Connor Hellebuyck was in goal—which means the Oilers will likely see backup Eric Comrie on Sunday.
Comrie has gone 9-9-1 this season with a 2.36 goals against average and a .914 save percentage. Respectable numbers, but still a significant downgrade from Hellebuyck, who is a lock to win the Vezina Trophy for the second straight year. According to Evolving Hockey, Hellebuyck has saved the Jets more than 47 goals above expected, while Comrie has saved the team approximately three goals above what an average goaltender would have based on shot quality.
No team has allowed fewer goals this season than Winnipeg, and that’s largely due to Hellebuyck’s play. However, Comrie has been particularly strong lately. Since Feb. 1, the 29-year-old is 5-2-0 with a 1.60 GAA, a .933 save percentage, and two shutouts. Additionally, Winnipeg has been one of the best offensive teams this season, ranking third in goals per 60 minutes, and they rank first in five-on-five expected goals percentage since Jan. 1.
On the injury front, Nikolaj Ehlers aggravated his foot injury after getting tangled up with a linesman in Saturday’s game and is questionable for Sunday. The Jets are also still without forward Gabriel Vilardi.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Jets
Winnipeg Jets Moneyline (-105) at Sports Interaction
Although the Jets are starting their backup goaltender on the second half of a back-to-back, I still don’t think they should be home underdogs against this depleted Oilers roster. Winnipeg has been tough to beat at home this season, going 26-9-4, and they still have something to play for on Sunday.
