The hits just keep on coming.
Between Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl sustaining injuries just a game apart, and trade deadline acquisition Trent Frederic reaggravating his ankle injury a mere six seconds into his very first shift with the team, the Edmonton Oilers really just can’t seem to catch a break. And now, their most recent news is the most disheartening of them all.
On Saturday afternoon, TSN’s Ryan Rishaug reported that, although more tests need to be performed, defenceman Mattias Ekholm’s season could be over. After missing prior weeks to injury, Ekholm initially started in Edmonton’s most recent game against the San Jose Sharks, but he wound up leaving after just three shifts. Even in the best-case scenario, Rishaug reports that Ekholm would be sidelined for “quite some time.”
There’s little doubt in the minds of most fans and media alike regarding Ekholm’s value to the team, as he has been a bonafide top-pairing defenceman for the Oilers since his very first game in Edmonton. Despite dealing with injury/illness issues over the course of the year, EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model still ranks Ekholm’s even-strength impact — in terms of both goals and expected goals – as the best amongst Edmonton’s defencemen. It goes without saying that this is an absolutely crushing loss.
So, with just three games remaining until the start of the playoffs, how should the Oilers manage with the absence of perhaps their best overall defenceman this season? Here’s a closer look.
*All stats via Natural Stat Trick and EvolvingHockey unless stated otherwise
Diving into the most optimal defensive pairs with Ekholm out
With Ekholm out, I believe the Oilers still possess four defencemen who can be effective in a top-four role; Evan Bouchard, Jake Walman, Darnell Nurse, and Brett Kulak. The question now is, how should they be most optimally deployed?
Firstly, let’s discuss Evan Bouchard’s optimal partner. Here are his results with each of Edmonton’s LHDs this season:
Aside from Ekholm, Bouchard has most commonly played with Brett Kulak this season at 5-on-5. While they have been out-scored 8 to 10, their 59 percent expected goal differential is an encouraging indicator for long-term success, as the Oilers have out-chanced opponents 106 to 78 with the pairing on-ice.
These results aren’t anything overly new either. While the sample isn’t exceedingly large (92 TOI), the Kulak – Bouchard duo held a fantastic 70 percent expected goal share in 2023-24, out-scoring opponents 8 to 6 this time. In total, the two played nearly 300 minutes together over the past two seasons and have overwhelmingly controlled play. Very encouraging.
Of course, Kulak won’t be able to nearly fill the massive hole left by Ekholm, particularly in terms of in-zone defending and puck retrievals under forecheck pressure, but the gap between Ekholm and Kulak in terms of zone entry defending and controlled zone exits is not all that massive. I believe the case for playing this pair is quite compelling.
On the other hand, Walman – Bouchard have been deployed most frequently as of late during Ekholm’s absence, and overall, Bouchard has been Walman’s most common defensive partner since his arrival in Edmonton. However, their results are a direct opposite of the Kulak – Bouchard pair; with Walman and Bouchard on-ice together at 5-on-5, the Oilers have out-scored opponents 5 to 4, but they have been out-shot and out-chanced. They’ve given up a notably high amount of high-danger chances against.
That being said, the big caveat here is that this pairing has primarily played during the timespan in which McDavid and Draisaitl have sustained injuries. In a fully healthy lineup, those raw numbers should be much better, and so alongside the fact that the sample size is less than 130 minutes, feel free to take these results with a grain of salt. This is still an option worth considering.
Now, the Nurse – Bouchard option is quite fascinating. They’ve only played 90 minutes together this season, but their early results are outstanding. And, again, this isn’t new; from 2021-22 through 2023-24, the Nurse – Bouchard pairing has produced an excellent 58 percent expected goal share, holding a +101 scoring chance differential in a strong sample of 746 minutes.
However, as I discussed this in my article last weekend about the Nurse pairing, my main concern with a Nurse – Bouchard pair is both defenceman’s propensity for making the “big mistake.” Put differently, both can be prone to making critical, glaring errors in their own zone leading to high-quality chances or goals against that aren’t always properly captured in the possession numbers. It’s certainly worth noting that this is the area where playing with Ekholm has benefitted Bouchard the most.
So, although Nurse – Bouchard may excel offensively and produce fantastic possession results, pairing Bouchard with someone that not only struggles to cover up for their partner’s mistakes but is also mistake-prone themselves could be highly risky. I’m not so sure if a team that already has major question marks in net should be taking that risk.
All things considered, I believe the most optimal pairings would be the following:
Kulak – Bouchard
Walman – Emberson
Nurse – Stecher
Firstly, as discussed earlier, Kulak and Bouchard have produced strong results together, and have a legitimate chance of producing close to similar play-driving results to Ekholm – Bouchard (while being much less error-prone than Nurse – Bouchard).
Of course, there’s still a compelling case for deploying Walman and Bouchard together with a healthy McDavid and Draisaitl – that pair’s dynamic puck-moving together would be heavily beneficial against strong forechecking teams – but with Ekholm out, it may be best for the team to “spread out” that puck-moving ability. This deployment ensures that, even with Bouchard’s pair off-ice, the Oilers can still ice a strong defenceman that can move the puck.
Some may have doubts about Ty Emberson playing in a larger role, which is perfectly reasonable, but Walman has proven to be able to produce good results regardless of his partner. If Walman can effectively drive a top defensive pairing in San Jose despite playing the most difficult competition alongside a mediocre forward group, it’s fairly and logically reasonable to assume he can propel a second-pairing with Edmonton’s forwards to quality results, even next to someone like Emberson.
It’s also worth noting that the Darnell Nurse and Troy Stecher pair has quietly produced a solid 54 percent goal differential together. If Kulak – Bouchard can sustain their current results in a larger sample size / tougher role, and if Walman can drive his own pairing as he did in San Jose, then simply a positive goal differential is likely all that is needed from the Nurse – Stecher pairing. Of course, the Oilers could even double-shift Walman or Nurse to play together if needed from time to time. That’s what the team has done with Nurse and Kulak for most of the season.
What about the PK?
A somewhat undermentioned effect of the absence of Ekholm will be on the penalty-kill.
In the 2023-24 regular season, it was Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci who were Edmonton’s most frequently deployed defenceman on the PK. Overall, the PK that season was quite inconsistent; it did have some excellent stretches of play, particularly in the first two months subsequent to Kris Knoblauch’s hiring, but it was fairly mediocre for the second half.
In the 2024 playoffs, the coaching staff made an adjustment, and Ekholm was moved to the team’s top PK unit. This move clearly paid dividends, as the Oilers had, by far, the best penalty-kill this past postseason. Edmonton allowed just a mere one goal on the penalty-kill in the Western Conference Finals and Stanley Cup Finals combined. And despite being consistently matched against the opposing team’s top PK units, Ekholm was on the ice for the fewest PK shots against per hour among Edmonton’s most regular PK defenders.
That will be a big hole to fill this time around.
Optimally, I believe the ideal PK pairings would be Kulak – Emberson and Nurse – Walman. Though Emberson has had struggles at 5-on-5, earning him some recent games in the press box, it’s certainly worth noting that he still leads Edmonton’s defencemen in TOI on the penalty-kill, producing relatively solid shot suppression results. He should stay in that role.
No Oilers defenceman has been on the ice for more PK goals against than Nurse. I would not deploy him on the top PK pairing, and that top LHD spot should belong to either Kulak or Walman. I lean towards Kulak for his defensive stability, but both options have their merit.
Jun 15, 2024; Edmonton, Alberta, CAN; Edmonton Oilers defenseman Evan Bouchard (2) skates with the puck against the Florida Panthers during the third period in game four of the 2024 Stanley Cup Final at Rogers Place. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports
Final Thoughts: How far can the Oilers go without Ekholm?
Even prior to all these injuries, the Oilers already had a long list of question marks, ranging from the depth scoring to the finishing ability to the goaltending consistency. The potential loss of Ekholm is yet another nail in the coffin and creates even more doubt regarding whether the Oilers can reach the Stanley Cup Final again (or even come close).
Perhaps one reason for hope is the fact that Edmonton was just two goals away from winning it all last season despite their second-pairing being out-scored 14 to 25 at 5-on-5. The Oilers made it that far with perhaps only three defencemen performing well; Bouchard, Ekholm and Kulak. In reference to the results of the last playoffs, the addition of Walman and the potential improvement of Nurse could make up for a lot of the hole left by Ekholm.
But, whether the penalty-kill can even be league-average without Ekholm in the playoffs is a huge question mark on its own. And, if Stuart Skinner is posting a 0.894 save percentage in this regular season with Ekholm in the lineup, it is frightening to think how low it would be without him in the playoffs.
All things considered, it goes without saying that numerous players will need to step up.
On the left side, the Oilers will be hoping for Brett Kulak to be able to sustain his results a larger role, and Darnell Nurse will need to be significantly better. If Nurse plays at the level at which he did last postseason, don’t expect the team to go far. Additionally, there will be pressure on Troy Stecher and Ty Emberson to play regular minutes in the playoffs, particularly Emberson who will be heavily relied upon for the penalty-kill.
These next few months will also be a massive test for Evan Bouchard’s true ability. With contract negotiations looming, this will be his opportunity to affirmingly prove to supporters and skeptics alike that he indeed can drive a pairing to strong two-way results without Ekholm. The Oilers will need him at his absolute best.
And, perhaps the most significant question mark will be the consistency of the goaltending. If Stuart Skinner can play as he did during the 2024 WCF and SCF, the team could have a solid shot. But, if he plays as poorly as he did against the Vancouver Canucks in the second round last year, or as he did against the Vegas Golden Knights the year prior, the performance of Edmonton’s defencemen may not even end up making a significant impact.
Will Edmonton’s players be able to rise up to this challenge? Only time will tell.
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