Several aspects of the Edmonton Oilers’ roster could use significant improvement, but when healthy, the team’s backend isn’t one of them. The acquisition of Jake Walman ahead of this year’s trade deadline has solidified Edmonton’s defensive core among the best in the league, and now, with the playoffs rapidly approaching, the main question facing head coach Kris Knoblauch and defence coach Paul Coffey is how to best deploy them.
Mattias Ekholm, Brett Kulak, and Jake Walman are all left-handed defencemen, but each of them has experience of varying degrees playing the right side. This grants the Oilers a variety of different options when it comes to deploying their defensive core, particularly in regards to who should play with Nurse.
For me, the Nurse pairing is a very important topic. In the 2024 playoffs, the Oilers out-scored opponents 22 to 12 with their top-pairing of Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard on-ice at 5-on-5, equating to an outstanding 65 percent goal differential. I believe the biggest difference between the 2024 Oilers and prior teams was the fact that they (finally) had an elite defensive pairing, and they were a vital reason as to why the team was a mere two goals away from winning it all.
However, without that pairing on-ice, the Oilers were out-scored 22 to 35, an ugly 39 percent goal differential. The Oilers as a team struggled so much without their top-pairing that even Connor McDavid held an awful 40 percent expected goal differential with the other two pairs.
The main culprit for these struggles seemed to be the Darnell Nurse and Cody Ceci pair, who were out-scored 5-to-12 and boasted a horrific 35 percent expected goal differential. But even though Nurse improved away from Ceci, Nurse still held a disappointing 47 percent expected goal differential, with the Oilers being out-scored 9-to-13 in those minutes. There’s a compelling argument to be made that, if the Oilers had even just a league-average second pair, they could have handedly defeated the Florida Panthers in the cup finals, maybe even in less than seven games.
Now, to his credit, Nurse has improved his play this season, with EvolvingHockey’s RAPM model rating his impact on possession and scoring chances nearly as strong as Bouchard’s this season. The departure of Ceci has undoubtedly played a big role, but Nurse does deserve credit for genuine individual improvement.
The Oilers’ deployment of the second-pair has varied this season. So, which deployment strategy is best to maximize Nurse’s play and ensure this consistently continues?
Firstly, here is a glance at Nurse’s results with each and every one of Edmonton’s current defencemen this season:
Edmonton’s most commonly run deployment strategy with regards to the second pair, particularly in the first half of the season, has been rotating Troy Stecher and Brett Kulak at 2RD depending on the situation. In this strategy, when Nurse is on-ice with Edmonton’s star centres and/or is up against top competition, Kulak has been Nurse’s primary partner, whereas Nurse and Stecher have mainly eaten up minutes against lower competition.
This strategy has generally worked quite well. Nurse and Kulak’s goal differential is lacklustre, but it’s primarily the result of an unsustainably low on-ice shooting percentage in those minutes; their 58 percent expected goal differential is a strong indicator of long-term success. Knoblauch/Coffey haven’t really utilized this strategy as frequently since the Four Nations break, and the Nurse – Stecher pairing has received regular minutes, but this still remains a very strong choice.
Nurse – Walman is also a strong candidate, and it’s certainly worth noting that their early results in a limited sample are outstanding. In just under 100 minutes together, the Oilers are up 7 to 2, with a 62 percent expected goal differential.
However, in my opinion, the two most important attributes of a potential partner for Nurse are strong entry defending and efficient breakout passing. Nurse is a weak entry defender, and historically, Nurse’s best results have come next to defensive partners that can move the puck. Walman checks the box for the latter, but not the former. Per AllThreeZones, Walman may have some strengths at defending in-zone, namely retrieving loose pucks under pressure and moving them out, but he struggles at defending the blueline. This strongly contrasts Kulak, who isn’t great at retrievals, but excels at rush defending.
Thus, it creates a significant question mark as to whether or not Nurse – Walman’s results would hold up, particularly in a larger sample in the playoffs. In terms of moving the puck up the ice, this is likely their best option, but their potential struggles at defending the rush together is a concern, especially for the postseason where rush teams dominate.
Now, Nurse – Bouchard is intriguing. Aside from a few games here and there over the years, the last time Nurse and Bouchard spent an extended stretch of time together as a true full-time pairing was 2021-22, i.e. Bouchard’s first season. In 524 minutes together that year, they boasted an excellent 57 xG%, though their goal differential was low due to some poor puck luck (0.963). But those results, alongside their strong results in a limited sample this season, could indicate that this pairing has potential.
However, the main problem with Nurse – Bouchard is that both defencemen are prone to making glaring errors at times. I would have concerns about that duo in their own zone in the playoffs. Not to mention, it is difficult to want to split up the chemistry of Ekholm and Bouchard. This is still an option highly worth considering, but perhaps it isn’t their best one.
Nurse – Ekholm is also an interesting option. Defensively, Ekholm could be heavily beneficial for Nurse, and their numbers in limited minutes are quite good. But, this potential option would depend on the success of the other pairings. So far, the Walman – Bouchard pair’s results have been mediocre, and thus, to create a truly well-rounded top-four, it might just be best for Ekholm and Bouchard to stick together.
Finally, neither Nurse – Emberson nor Nurse – Klingberg should be seriously considered options. Emberson has generally done well in a 3RD role, and has especially been a valuable contributor on the penalty-kill, but he’s not fit to be the 2RD on this team. Additionally, though they didn’t play significant minutes together, Nurse – Klingberg’s results as a pair were absolutely dreadful, and Klingberg certainly isn’t fit to be a top-four defenceman on a cup contender at this stage of his career.
All things considered, in my opinion, the most optimal option here would be to rotate Kulak and Walman at 2RD depending on the situation. Nurse – Kulak should obtain more minutes together when the Oilers need to protect a lead, whereas Nurse – Walman could be perfect if the Oilers are in need of a goal. But, the Oilers have multiple different options here, and each has its various pros and cons
As we approach the playoffs, there are several concerns about this Oilers team, such as their goaltending and depth scoring. But, if the Oilers can find the most optimal strategy to deploy the Darnell Nurse pair, it would give them a huge edge in comparison to the team last season.
*All stats via Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise
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