There has been quite a lot of discussion regarding Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending tandem this season, and whether or not Stuart Skinner has the ability to backstop the Oilers to a Stanley Cup this season. A fair concern to have. However, Edmonton’s recent offensive play has been just as worrisome for me.
In 2022-23, the Edmonton Oilers led the entire NHL in goals. Their 3.97 goals per hour rate that season was the second highest by any team in a single season in the 21st century. In 2023-24, they saw a slight decrease, but they still remained third in the NHL in 5v5 goals per hour, just a smidge behind second place.
However, the team has now dropped all the way to 12th in the NHL in 5v5 goals per hour in 2024-25.
Overall, the Oilers have an exact net-even goal differential at 5v5 this season thus far, allowing precisely 138 goals for and 138 goals against at the 66-game mark. That’s not an encouraging result for a team with Stanley Cup aspirations; for reference, they have ranked as a net positive in 5v5 goal differential in each of the prior four seasons. Edmonton was +40 (!) at 5-on-5 last season despite their horrendous start!
Eleven of Edmonton’s 38 wins this season have been 3-on-3 OT victories. With no 3v3 in the playoffs, 5v5 scoring is an issue that the Oilers must figure out with the post-season just about a month away.
Using Natural Stat Trick’s With-Or-Without-You (WOWY) tool, it’s quite easy to see where Edmonton is specifically struggling the most in terms of 5v5 goal differential.
On the one hand, it is crystal clear that Leon Draisaitl is having an extraordinary season. With McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice, the Oilers hold an outstanding 62 percent goal differential, and even without McDavid on-ice, Draisaitl has still driven his team to an excellent 56 percent goal differential.
But away from Draisaitl, McDavid has been out-scored 25 to 37, equating to a horrendous 40 percent goal differential. The Oilers rank as a net negative without both of them on-ice as well, but ultimately, McDavid’s goal share away from Draisaitl has hurt the team the most.
At a glance, one could simply place the majority of the blame for Edmonton’s decreased scoring rates on McDavid’s individual struggles without Draisaitl this season. There’s no doubt that he has not been his usual dominant self this season.
However, the true answer to Edmonton’s scoring struggles is much more nuanced and complex than that.
In 2023-24, McDavid averaged 0.92 goals per hour at 5-on-5, and it has dropped to 0.74 this season. But, Draisaitl averaged 0.72 G/60 last season, and has improved to 1.19. Look at it this way; in comparison to last season, Draisaitl’s increase in individual scoring this season has more than made up for McDavid’s decrease in scoring, and their combined 5v5 goal rate has actually improved, so the team’s results shouldn’t have seen that huge of a decline, right?
And yet, it has.
McDavid’s 5v5 primary assist rate has dropped from 1.56 last season, to 0.97 this season, a full 38% decrease. Per CSA Hockey, McDavid currently leads the NHL in passes that lead directly to mid or high percentage scoring chances; even if McDavid hasn’t been at his usual best, he should have more assists than he currently does. Despite Draisaitl’s outstanding season, even his primary assist rate at 5-on-5 has seen a slight decrease from 1.10 last season to 1.03 this season.
Thus, Edmonton’s scoring decline seems to mainly be the result of McDavid and Draisaitl’s linemates scoring at significantly lower rates, particularly the winger group. In this article, I would like to take a closer look into how and why Edmonton’s wingers have been struggling to score this season.
Now, the Oilers have kept five of their wingers from their 2023-24 roster (counting Ryan Nugent-Hopkins as one), and acquired four new wingers (one of them in place of the currently injured Evander Kane). Let’s take a look at each of their individual scoring rates, starting with the new guys:
Warren Foegele, Dylan Holloway, and Ryan McLeod were Edmonton’s primary forward departures this past off-season. They, plus Evander Kane, averaged 0.8 goals per hour for the Oilers last season.
Edmonton’s new additions at wing were free agent signings Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, waiver claim Kasperi Kapanen, and trade acquisition Vasily Podkolzin. They have averaged 0.67 goals per hour for the Oilers this season.
Many, including myself, expected Viktor Arvidsson to be an upgrade on Warren Foegele, but that just hasn’t happened. Given that his most common centre is currently a Hart Trophy candidate, Arvidsson’s play has been a massive disappointment in my eyes.
Kasperi Kapanen has been decently productive, but that has primarily been in sheltered fourth-line minutes, and it’s come at the cost of some very subpar defensive play. Vasily Podkolzin has been Edmonton’s best defensive winger by far, and so he remains a highly useful complementary player, but it’s evident that he struggles to consistently produce.
What’s frustrating for me here is that Jeff Skinner has scored at a strong rate this season, doing well in limited minutes next to Draisaitl, but has been frequently scratched by head coach Kris Knoblauch, further exacerbating Edmonton’s offensive issues.
All-in-all, we can deduce that Edmonton’s offensive decline can be partially attributed to their off-season roster changes, and Knoblauch’s deployment isn’t helping here either. Some may hope that Evander Kane can be an impactful player when he returns in the post-season, but given his ugly underlying numbers and how much time he has missed, that probability seems low.
Now, what about Edmonton’s returning wingers?
Compared to last season, both Connor Brown and Corey Perry have seen an increase in scoring this season. In particular, Corey Perry has been a very pleasant surprise for the Oilers’ bottom-six, and has definitely been their most useful depth player. However, Janmark, RNH, and Hyman have all seen significant decreases, particularly Hyman who has nearly seen his 5v5 scoring rate cut in half.
Now in fairness, some regression for Hyman was likely inevitable; he wasn’t scoring 50+ goals every year. But, there’s a very concerning trend that is evident here. Each of Edmonton’s five returning wingers have averaged fewer expected goals per hour this season compared to last season. Put differently, all of them are generating fewer quality chances.
Can we just chalk this up to plain coincidence, or is there an underlying issue here?
In my opinion, this connects to yet another potential reason for Edmonton’s scoring struggles; a significant increase in point shots from Edmonton’s defencemen.
This season, 36 percent of Edmonton’s shots at 5v5 have come from their defenceman, more than any other team in the NHL. Now, this is not inherently a bad thing for every team, but it does seem that way in Edmonton’s case. While the Oilers rank first in the league in percentage of shots taken from their defenceman, the shooting percentage from their defenceman ranks 28th. Clearly, this strategy is not working.
Back in the Dave Tippett and Jim Playfair era, the Oilers averaged roughly 38 percent of their shots from defenceman. Then, it saw a huge decrease under coaches Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson, accompanied by a significant increase in overall team scoring rate, but the point shot rates have yet again increased under Kris Knoblauch and Paul Coffey this season. It certainly seems that this is currently caused by coaching (or perhaps a lack of coaching, as suggested by fellow OilersNation writer Bruce Curlock), and it’s clearly had a negative impact on Edmonton’s offence.
Last season, the Oilers averaged roughly 32 shots per hour at 5v5, first in the league. This season, they’ve averaged 31 shots per hour, a marginal decrease, but still first in the league. So, the issue here certainly isn’t shot volume. Instead, the problem seems to be shot quality, as Edmonton’s xGF/60 has decreased from 3.35 to 2.87. There’s been a substantial increase in point shots from the defenceman at the cost of significantly fewer slot shots from their wingers.
All things considered, can Edmonton’s scoring rates be fixed? Again, the answer is somewhat complicated.
On the bright side, many of the issues plaguing Edmonton are indeed internally fixable. A better-coached offensive zone structure, fewer point shots from their defenders, and an extended opportunity for Jeff Skinner in the top-six would all go a long way. This team certainly isn’t lacking in talent.
Additionally, trade deadline acquisition Trent Frederic, who is currently injured but is expected to return before the playoffs, was a reasonably productive player in Boston, averaging a higher 5v5 points per hour rate than Nugent-Hopkins and Henrique over the past three seasons; on paper, he should be an impactful addition to the bottom-six.
Furthermore, the Oilers may also benefit from giving Adam Henrique an extended opportunity next to McDavid. Clearly, the RNH – McDavid – Hyman line has not been as dominant as it was last season, and Henrique has also struggled at 3C this season. Knoblauch swapped RNH and Henrique in Edmonton’s most recent game against the New York Islanders, and I would like to see this continue over an extended sample. It’s certainly worth noting that the Henrique – McDavid – Hyman line had strong underlying numbers in limited TOI last season.
It could also be worth it to give Matthew Savoie an opportunity before the playoffs. He had some strong moments in the few games he played with the Oilers this season, and the bottom-six could certainly use some fresh legs.
However, whether or not all of these fixes are made is an entirely different question. It’s clear as day that Knoblauch is not a fan of Jeff Skinner, and the Oilers’ recent play does not inspire much hope that the point shots issue will improve; Draisaitl is the only Oilers forward to score on Edmonton’s current road trip thus far.
Additionally, it’s also possible that scoring declines from Hyman and RNH are simply age-related, as both of them are in their 30s. Perhaps this could be the beginning of a permanent regression. Hopefully, this is not the case, as Edmonton will need both of them at their best if they are to go deep in the playoffs this season. The same is true for Viktor Arvidsson as well.
Ultimately, 5v5 scoring is an area the Oilers must improve in if they have Stanley Cup aspirations this season. Only time will tell if they do.
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