There is a growing public narrative that the Hart Trophy should be Nathan MacKinnon’s to lose this year.

Daily Faceoff’s Frank Seravalli opined on it earlier this week, while 16 NHL.com writers polled had MacKinnon as a clear winner.

That idea, however, doesn’t jive with Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch, who said Draisaitl shouldn’t only win the Hart Trophy this season as the league’s most valuable player to his team, but the Selke Trophy as the league’s top defensive forward, too.

“I can’t see why he wouldn’t,” he said when asked about Draisaitl being in the Hart Trophy race. “He’s been doing it all. Not only Hart Trophy, but Selke Trophy — the defensive plays he makes every single night.

“You look at the first period, the back check. He stripped a player of the puck, they go counter, and I believe he set up Perry for a Grade A scoring chance in the slot. He’s been making those plays all season. You look at the goals he’s getting, the primary assists he’s setting up, you often overlook the defensive plays he’s making, but every single night he’s making plays like that.”

What’s made Drasisaitl’s season so impressive, Knoblauch added, is that he doesn’t have a strong quality of linemates.

“You look at other lines with star players and who they get to play with,” he said after Friday’s win over the Islanders in which Draisaitl scored the Oilers’ only two goals. “I don’t want to take away from the players he’s playing with… but he’s not playing with guys who are making Olympic teams or All-Stars. It’s a credit to him, obviously.”

While he’s played roughly 35 percent of his five-on-five ice-time with Connor McDavid and 27 percent with Zach Hyman, he’s also seen 42 percent with Vasily Podkolzin, 32 percent with Viktor Arvidsson and 16 percent with Corey Perry. Perry has seemingly tapped into a fountain of youth with a solid offensive season in a largely depth role, but the offence hasn’t been there for Podkolzin or Arvidsson much at all.

Yet, Draisaitl is still leading the league with 51 five-on-five points heading into Saturday’s games — five up on MacKinnon — while his 22 five-on-five goals are 10 higher than MacKinnon. Accounting for all situations, Draisaitl already has a 22 goal lead on MacKinnon, but trails in total points by just two, as the Avalanche star has 102 on the year.

That, however, doesn’t paint a full picture.

One area where MacKinnon has found success this year is against empty nets, scoring four goals and 13 points against them this season, compared to Draisaitl’s two goals and four points against empty nets.

Removing the empty net points shifts this drastically in terms of point totals, with Draisaitl now having a seven point lead in total points, and a 24 goal lead in scoring.

The odds at Bet365 heavily favour Draisaitl as his -180 line, giving him implied odds of 64.3 percent to win, while MacKinnon sits third at +550, implied odds of just 15.4 percent.

The Hart Trophy might be tougher for Draisaitl to etch his name on, given Aleksander Barkov, once again, appears to be running away with it. Draisaitl does have the fourth best odds at +2000, giving him implied odds of 4.8 percent. Barkov’s the clear favourite at -500, giving him an 83.3 percent chance to win, while those between are Sam Reinhart (+450, 18.2 percent) and Nico Hischier (+1200, 7.7 percent).

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.