NHL Betting Preview (March 5): Oilers at Bruins Odds

Photo credit:Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports
Andrew MacNeil
4 months ago
Edmonton will look to win their fifth game in a row on Tuesday when they face the Boston Bruins, who are fresh off a 4-1 victory over the surging Toronto Maple Leafs. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make up this matchup.

Oilers at Bruins Odds

  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -125
  • Boston Bruins Moneyline Odds: +105
  • Puck Line Odds: Oilers -1.5 (+185), Bruins +1.5 (-240)
  • Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +105, under -125)
All odds courtesy of Betway.
If you don’t yet have a Betway account, sign up now to bet on the Oilers vs. Kraken game this afternoon!

Last Matchup

The Bruins handed the Oilers an overtime-loss in a wild 6-5 game on Feb. 21st at Rogers Place. The teams were tied 1-1 heading into the first intermission but Boston outscored Edmonton 3-1 in the second period to take a 4-2 lead into the third. However, Edmonton would return the favour in the final frame, winning the period 3-1 and sending the game to overtime. That’s where the good times ended, though, as Charlie McAvoy ended the game on a pass from Jake DeBrusk.
Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the starting lineups and goaltenders.

Handicapping the Oilers (37-22 SU, 29-30 ATS, 26-30 O/U)

Edmonton closed as a -134 home favourite on the moneyline against the Bruins just two weeks ago, and they lost. Fast forward to when the market opened on Monday, and sportsbooks are listing the Oilers as a -125 road favourite. Under normal circumstances, this would be strange. However, home-ice advantage is essentially wiped out because of Boston’s schedule, considering that home teams have won 53.3 percent of the games overall, but just 48.9 percent in the second half of a back-to-back.
No team controls play like the Oilers do, but dominating a team like the Bruins isn’t easy and the last game proved that. Edmonton outshot Boston 42-36, and they finished with a 5.25 – 4 edge in expected goals, but still lost the game 6-5 because giving the Bruins that many opportunities is dangerous. The Oilers will have to play smarter than they did in that game, and the rest advantage should help.

Handicapping the Bruins (36-27 SU, 31-32 ATS, 31-32 O/U)

The Oilers have been a favourite in all but six road games this season, but the Bruins would likely be a slight favourite here if not for the schedule. After all, the last time the Bruins were a home underdog (Nov. 2nd versus Toronto) was the lone time that has happened this season, and they won that game 3-2 in overtime. Of course, all that means is that Boston is hard to beat. Boston has won 61 percent of its home games year-to-date, but only twice have they been put in this situation, and never against a team like the Oilers. 
The Bruins have not been playing very well, either. Boston ranks 23rd in 5-on-5 expected goals percentage and goals per 60 minutes over the last 30 days, per Evolving Hockey. Neither has goaltender Linus Ullmark, who was indeed with the team last night in Toronto. Ullmark is 3-4-2 in his last 10 games with a .892 save percentage. It all adds up to this being the Bruins’ toughest test yet, and that means they’re more beatable than ever.


Team Betting Trends

  • Edmonton is 7-3 straight up in its last 10 road games, but just 4-6 against the puck line. Meanwhile, the Bruins are 4-6 in their last 10 home games, and they’re sporting an even uglier record (2-8) against the puck line.
  • Boston is 7-3 to the under in its last 10 home games, while Edmonton is 6-4 to the under in its last 10 road games. These two teams have gone under the total in eight of the last 10 meetings, but that’s going back a long way because the Bruins and Oilers only meet twice per season. 
  • What’s even more interesting is that despite the last game between these two teams having a closing total of 6.5 (over -105), which was inaccurate in hindsight, sportsbooks are now setting the total for this game at 6.5 (over +105) because historical trends and home and road splits are more important to them than the results of one game.

Player Prop Betting Trends

  • It’s hard to want to talk about anybody besides Zach Hyman, who has 10 goals in his last 10 games and is now up to 42 goals in 58 games. Hyman is listed at +115 to score a goal on Tuesday in Boston.
  • Ryan McLeod finally broke out of his scoring slump, after going 16 games without a goal, but that wasn’t even his longest slump of the season. McLeod went 21 games without a goal to start the season. He is listed at 4/1 to score a goal.
  • David Pastrnak is still increasing his totals with five goals and eight assists in his last 10 games. He picked up three apples on Monday and now has 38 goals and 90 points in 63 games this season. Pastrnak is listed at -105 to score a goal against Edmonton.
  • Morgan Geekie has five goals in his last 10 games. Mind you, he did score his first career hat trick. He’s also playing on the third line. But, he is on the second power play unit and he’s not afraid to shoot the puck. Geekie is fifth on the Bruins in shots over the last 10 games and he is listed at +275 to score a goal on Tuesday, which doesn’t seem generous enough for a guy who had at +490 two weeks ago.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Being able to bet on the Oilers to win the game at -125 odds might be tempting because it’s not often you get the Oilers at a price like that, but the Bruins are a top team in the East and Edmonton is carrying lower odds for a reason. Same goes for the puck line. The Bruins only suffered five multi-goal losses in 31 home games, and not against any of the teams you might expect. I’m keeping it sort of simple and just betting on Leon Draisaitl to score a goal at +135. The big forward has been shooting the puck consistently as of late, and he’s scored in 28 of 59 games this season and the Betway the odds are a little more competitive than some of the other players I’d consider taking a chance on.

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