Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers.
Stars vs. Oilers Odds
- Dallas Stars Moneyline: +100
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -120
- Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-121), Oilers -1.5 (+108)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -108, Under -104)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Stars (41-21 SU, 29-33 ATS, 25-31-6 O/U)
The Dallas Stars went all in on Friday, acquiring forward Mikko Rantanen in a blockbuster trade with the Carolina Hurricanes. In exchange, Dallas sent forward Logan Stankoven, two first-round picks, and two third-round picks to Carolina. Rantanen had played just 13 games with the Hurricanes after being acquired from Colorado.
Already one of the NHL’s hottest teams with 12 wins in their last 15 games, Dallas has further strengthened its Stanley Cup chances, both this season and beyond. Rantanen has 101 points in 81 career playoff games, placing him among the league’s elite. Only Wayne Gretzky, Mario Lemieux, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon, and Mark Messier have averaged more points per game (minimum 50 playoff games). As a result, Dallas now has the best Stanley Cup odds (+600) and the best odds (+300) to win the Western Conference.
Rantanen’s brief stint in Carolina didn’t pan out, but he’s well-positioned to thrive in Dallas. The 28-year-old is expected to join fellow countryman Roope Hintz and Jason Robertson on the Stars’ top line. Robertson is tied for fifth in league scoring, while Hintz has been red-hot—only Draisaitl and David Pastrnak have more points since Jan. 20.
The Stars rank fourth in the NHL in goals per 60 minutes (3.38) this season, and only one team has generated more expected goals per 60. With Rantanen in the mix, they might now boast the league’s best offense. Since 2020-21, only four players have scored more goals, cementing him as one of the game’s premier finishers.
From a betting perspective, Dallas has been a solid moneyline bet this season. However, Dallas has only been an underdog nine times all season, and they have produced a slight loss in those situations.
Handicapping the Oilers (36-26 SU, 22-40 ATS, 28-33-1 O/U)
Edmonton had a decent trade deadline, but compared to teams like Dallas and Colorado, it’s fair to question if they improved enough. Their play over the past month has been uninspiring, and while some argue the regular season doesn’t matter, it’s our only gauge for teams like the Stars and Oilers. Based on recent form, it’s hard to favor Edmonton in a series against Dallas—especially with the unknown impact of Rantanen’s addition.
The Oilers added forwards Trent Frederic and Max Jones, along with defenseman Jake Walman—all solid pickups. However, it remains to be seen how much they’ll move the needle. Frederic adds some snarl and has a scoring touch, but he isn’t expected to debut until later this month. Walman is likely the best addition of the three—a strong puck mover with a big shot who defended respectably on a terrible San Jose team.
In the short term, even with home-ice advantage, Edmonton doesn’t look like a favorite against Dallas. Since February, the Oilers rank 17th in even-strength expected goals percentage, according to Evolving Hockey, and their scoring rates have been dismal. Only five teams have scored fewer goals, and just three have allowed more per 60 minutes at even strength.
Meanwhile, no team has scored more at even strength than the Stars since Feb. 1. Their defense hasn’t been great but has outperformed Edmonton’s in all situations. Dallas also boasts a dominant power play, converting at 35.3% since Jan. 1. While the Oilers’ power play has been strong (32.8%), Dallas owns the league’s best penalty kill over that span, whereas Edmonton ranks among the bottom 10 while shorthanded.
Best Bet for Stars vs. Oilers
Mikko Rantanen Anytime Goal (+160) at Sports Interaction
It may seem like the obvious bet, but there’s good reason to back the newest Dallas Star to score on Saturday. Rantanen struggled in Carolina, managing just two goals on 40 shots, and that slump is still affecting his odds. Earlier this season, he was +130 to score against the Oilers with Colorado and +140 when Edmonton visited Carolina on March 1. He’s in a much better spot to score Saturday, making +160 a solid value—but be sure to shop for the best price.
