Last year, when the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars began their matchup in the Western Conference Final, you could see the path to stopping the Edmonton Oilers.
At that point in 2024, the Oilers were basically getting all of their scoring with one of McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice. At 5v5, the team got 24 goals with one or both of McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice. Without those two? They had just four goals scored and had eight goals against.
They also had 14 power play goals with their top unit on the ice. So they had 38 goals with their top players on the ice through two rounds in 2024 and just 4 goals with them off the ice. It was a staggering disparity.They were dynamite with their big guns, but they were getting no support from their depth players.
This year, it’s a totally different story for the Oilers.
With one of McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice at 5v5, they have 19 goals. With both of them off the ice, they have 18 goals. Pretty close to dead even.
The power play also hasn’t been carrying the Oilers to victory either. They have just 6 goals through the first two rounds of the playoffs.
It’s also worth noting that of those 19 goals with one of McDavid or Draisaitl on the ice, only one of them has come when Draisaitl is playing without McDavid while 13 of them have come when they are together, according to Natural Stat-Trick.
When McDavid plays without Draisaitl, the Oilers have gotten three goals.
Are the Oilers in a spot where they should consider playing McDavid and Draisaitl together full-time? I think there’s a strong case for it to open up this series against Dallas.
The Stars have really struggled without Rantanen and Hintz on the ice, getting outscored 18-9 at 5v5 when those two aren’t playing.
They are actually very similar to the Oilers of last year. With their two best forwards on the ice, they are +7 at 5v5 and without them, they are -9. Quite the swing.
If I was Kris Knoblauch, I would strongly consider loading up McDavid and Draisaitl and hoping that in the first two games of the series, the Stars elect to go “power on power” and try to hard match Hintz and Rantanen against the Oilers’ top line.
If that was the case, then I think the Oilers could re-unite the line of Evander Kane, Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and trust them to dominate whatever matchup they get, just like they did earlier in these playoffs.
Even if the Stars try to get away from the two top lines going head-to-head, then McDavid and Draisaitl could probably expose whatever other line they go up against considering the Stars “bottom-nine” struggles right now.
If I were to give the Stars the benefit of the doubt, they have been playing banged up and this collection of players is likely too talented to continue getting dominated this bad. They’re probably due to start playing some good hockey with players like Jamie Benn, Matt Duchene, Tyler Seguin and Jason Robertson all struggling to varying degrees during these playoffs.
I don’t think that group is going to get outscored by a 2:1 clip by the Oilers in this series, I think they’ll be better, but I do still think that the Oilers have an advantage when it comes to their depth in this series.
Combine that with the fact that McDavid and Draisaitl are clearly the two best players in this series and it’s easy to see a world where the Oilers forward group powers them to victory in this series.
Now, where the Oilers have a clear advantage in the scoring department, the Stars have a similar advantage on the back end.
Miro Heiskanen was being eased back into the lineup against the Winnipeg Jets after missing basically the entire back half of the regular season and the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
I would expect that the safety is going to be taken off here when it comes to Heiskanen and his minutes. I think we will play a massive role in this series.
Also, Thomas Harley has taken a massive step forward for the Dallas Stars. He can skate at a level that allows him to keep up with Connor McDavid, and if both he and Heiskanen are at their best, the Oilers’ big guns will have a hard time producing in this series.
The difference between these two bluelines is that while the Stars clearly have the two best defenders in this series, the Oilers’ bottom two pairings are better.
Jake Walman and John Klingberg did a fantastic job of shutting down the Jack Eichel line in the Oilers’ second-round victory over the Vegas Golden Knights and ever since Troy Stecher was inserted into the lineup, Darnell Nurse’s numbers have gotten much better.
The Oilers play a very quick style of hockey and I think that the bottom parts of this Stars blueline could really struggle with that.
The Stars of course also have a clear advantage between the pipes, where Jake Oettinger is once again playing like one of the best goalies in the world.
Through two playoff rounds, Oettinger has a .919 save percentage and 2.47 GAA and has absolutely stolen a couple of games for the Stars.
His surface numbers are very similar to his last season when through two rounds, he had a .918 save percentage and a 2.09 GAA. The Stars aren’t defending quite as well this year though, so I would say his numbers this season are far more impressive.
Of course, last season the Oilers got to Oettinger a little bit. He had a save percentage under .900 in each of the final three games of the series.
In his three career regular season games at Rogers Place, Oettinger has an .890 save percentage and in the playoffs, he has an .882. He’s never been a dominant goalie at Rogers Place.
Still, Oettinger is an elite goaltender and he’s more than capable of stealing games for the Stars, even against a team as good as Edmonton.
So here’s my breakdown of this series:
Star power: advantage Edmonton
Forward depth: advantage Edmonton
Top-end defencemen: advantage Dallas
Depth defencemen: advantage Edmonton
Goaltending: advantage Dallas
Power play: coin flip
Penalty kill: advantage Dallas
The point is that this is going to be a very tight series. The Oilers need their depth to continue producing at a high clip, their goaltending to keep them in games, and their power play to come through in a timely fashion.
If they get those things, then the Oilers should be on their way to a second straight Stanley Cup Final.
