MATH SPEAKS OUT ON 2012 DRAFT

12 years ago

The Edmonton Oilers have the #1 overall pick on the strength of winning the draft lottery. Experts tell us that Nail Yakupov (in photo) is the best player available. What does our friend math say?

GETTING READY FOR THE PAGEANT

The NHL draft is months away and evaluation will involve several areas–mental, physical, mathematical. We can look at the math now courtesy the brilliant Gabriel Desjardins and his website behind the net. Gabriel’s work has stood up under several seasons of testing and does in fact deliver a reasonable "line in the sand" for projecting players.

This season, there are a few hurdles we don’t ordinarily have to overcome. There have been a large number of injuries, so the NHLE’s I’m going to post here are over fewer games than we’d see in a normal year. Also, one of the very best prospects this season–Filip Forsberg–plays in the SWE1 league, one pro league down from Sweden’s SEL. I’ve asked Gabriel for his input and the number below is posted and explained for Forsberg.

I thank Mr. Desjardins for his aid in this matter.

STOP TEASING AND POST THE NUMBERS

These are the top rated players from Bob McKenzie’s mid-season list and their NHLE’s. The final list will be different by the time we gear up for draft week but these are the men who looked like the cream of the crop at mid-season.

NHLE FORWARDS

NAME	LEAGUE	NHLE G	NHLE A	NHLE PTS
NAIL YAKUPOV	OHL	18	22	40
MIKHAIL GRIGORENKO	QMJHL	16	17	33
FILIP FORSBERG*	SWE-1	3	3	6
ALEX GALCHENYUK**	OHL	11	19	30
RADEK FAKSA	OHL	12	14	26
ZEMGUS GIRGENSONS	USHL	10	14	24
BRENDAN GAUNCE	OHL	10	15	25

*An estimate. I asked Gabriel Desjardins about NHLE for Swe-1, which is the league Forsberg plays in. The number above reflects his estimate. Forsberg is playing in a men’s league and we don’t know the extent of his TOI. It’s important to keep that in mind when reading this chart.

**Galchenyuk was injured for almost the entire season, so the numbers you see here are from his 16-year old season. The young man is clearly underrated using this number but I wanted to include him.

NHLE DEFENSE

NAME	LEAGUE	NHLE G	NHLE A	NHLE PTS
RYAN MURRAY	WHL	5	12	17
MATT DUMBA	WHL	7	13	20
JACOB TROUBA	USHL	4	14	18
MORGAIN RIELLY*	WHL	4	21	25
GRIFFIN REINHART	WHL	5	10	15
CODY CECI	OHL	7	16	23
OLLI MAATA	OHL	2	12	14

*Rielly played in only 18 games during the regular season so the odds of these numbers properly reflecting his offensive ability are not high. Having said that, I think it is fair to suggest he’s among the best offensive defenders in the draft based on his resume and that is reflected here.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

We’re trying to take a black and white photo and project it forward with color. We have some very specific issues with this year’s group due to injury and the Forsberg situation. Those things acknowledged:

Yakupov is clearly the class of the group offensively.
Galchenyuk has to be a very compelling prospect. To post numbers at 16 that put him in the conversation for top 5 in the following season is incredible. He might end up making a lot of teams sorry they passed on him.
Grigorenko remains the most controversial player among forwards and math can’t help us decide. He’s good, but not as good as Yakupov and Galchenyuk might be his equal. Thanks math, we know that beforehand.
The defense is deep this season.
Murray and Reinhart are basically equal offensively, so the footspeed versus grit issue is the item Edmonton must decide on (if they’re still leaning toward blue).
Rielly’s injury probably cost him.
Dumba is a fascinating prospect.
Ceci doesn’t get mentioned a lot but is a player of interest.

Bottom line: Math says Nail Yakupov is the class of the group.