NHLE (D)

11 years ago

You should know that Gabriel Desjardins’ NHL equivalencies loves Justin Schultz. L-O-V-E loves.

PAST NHLE FOR BLUE (a sampling)

The first thing you should know about NHL equivalencies is that they are a much better measuring stick for forwards than defenders, So much value for D points comes with PP time, and a rookie defender on an NHL powerplay is a rate item indeed.

Therefore, when looking at these NHLE’s, it is important to remember that PP time is included in the estimates and that valuable opportunity is likely one year away.

Here’s a quick sampling from the Oilers recent past, per 82 gp and using Gabe’s system:

SUMMER 2010 (for 10-11)

Jeff Petry 4-22-26
Taylor Chorney 5-10-15
Jeremie Blain 1-13-14
Brandon Davidson 0-14-14
Kyle Bigos 4-6-10
Alex Plante 2-5-7
Theo Peckham 0-6-6
Johan Motin 1-3-4
Troy Hesketh 1-3-4

Petry’s NHLE is a nice match for what he posted this past season (73, 2-23-25) and gives us an indication (once again) that there is value in Gabe’s studies. It doesn’t mean it’ll be 100% every time and there are variables, but it’s a useful and fun guideline. The other numbers tell us about some nice talent bubbling under and that Taylor Chorney’s offensive gifts–once considered a strong suit–might not be enough to get him an NHL job.

SUMMER 2011 (for 11-12)

Jeff Petry 6-15-21
Martin Marincin 5-16-21
Jeremie Blain 1-20-21
Brandon Davidson 3-14-17
Taylor Chorney 2-11-13
Colten Teubert 2-8-10
Kyle Bigos 2-6-8
Alex Plante 1-7-8
Johan Motin 1-3-4

A nice group, three defensemen over 20 points NHLE, and one of them doing those numbers in the AHL. Oilers chose to pass on Blain, but Marincin and Davidson showed well. It’s pretty obvious which of the group were getting PP time, and that number of course gets reduced as the players turn pro. Petry’s 21 NHLE points come in the AHL, a much tougher place to get PP time.

SUMMER 2012 (for 12-13)

Martin Gernat 4-19-23
Jeremie Blain 4-16-20
Martin Marincin 5-12-17
Brandon Davidson 5-12-17*
Kyle Bigos 4-13-17
Dillon Simpson 2-13-15
David Musil 3-8-11
Oscar Klefbom 4-0-4

Gernat really came out of nowhere and some of these points no doubt came from playing on a powerhouse Oil Kings squad. Still, that’s impressive. Marincin and Blain ran in place but there’s no sin in that, Davidson didn’t improve on his number and he was overage. Young Dillon Simpson was playing in the NCAA as a high school kid (well, high school age) so that number is one to follow.

Klefbom played in the SEL and didn’t get any PP push, my bet is he’ll be a much better offensive player than suggested here but we can probably assume he’ll be well below 30-point range even in his best NHL seasons. Jason Smith-Steve Staios offense with very good defensive play. That’s a quality player.

We’ll know far more about Klefbom’s offense when he arrives in North America.

JUSTIN SCHULTZ

Remember I mentioned that Desjardins number loves Justin Schultz? The NHLE for NCAA hockey is 45%, meaning the Gabe’s toy estimates that Schultz will bring just under half of his college offense with him to the NHL. Now, remember also that powerplay minutes are very important for defensemen and rookie blue often don’t get those cherry minutes. I know that the Oilers don’t have a lot of options, but its important to place these numbers in context. That said, the NHLE for Justin Schultz is 82, 15-25-40.

THAT’S how big a free agent signing Justin Schultz was for the Edmonton Oilers.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

This is no scoop, there has been a lot of chatter these days about how little Edmonton has done to change this roster over the summer. I think that’s fair, Edmonton needed two top 4D entering summer and they have Justin Schultz. However, it is also important to remember how important this player could be to the cluster.

Sometimes during a long summer events in early July are forgotten by the end. We’re all human, completely understandable. II’m suggesting to you that Justin Schultz was an outstanding addition. He may not post 40 points as a rookie, but his skill set is a sublime match with the Oilers need. He is absolutely a perfect fit. And if you don’t believe me, cool. But have a look at Gabriel Desjardins’ magic numbers. Or Thomas Drance earlier this summer or even Jeff Angus in the spring.