Nuge: Odds favor Arizona
By Lowetide
6 years agoIf Peter Chiarelli stays true to form, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins will be traded the week of June 24-30, 2018. How do I know this? Following the rule of ‘Steve Austin exits’ it only makes sense:
- June 29, 2016: Traded Taylor Hall to New Jersey Devils for Adam Larsson.
- June 22, 2017: Traded Jordan Eberle to NY Islanders for Ryan Strome.
It follows that the Nuge, final Austin, will be dealt sometime final week of June, 2018. We should also be aware the window for a trade may open shortly after Leon Draisaitl signs later this summer. Why can we be so sure of Nuge being dealt? Edmonton has to reduce the cap by next summer, when Connor McDavid’s long-term deal kicks in. Trading Milan Lucic, Andrej Sekera or Cam Talbot isn’t possible (various no movement clauses), but the Nuge has no trade restrictions. Source: NHL Numbers.
DESTINATION
The most likely trade destination based on Peter Chiarelli’s Edmonton transaction history? Arizona. Edmonton has made three deals with the Coyotes since Chiarelli arrived:
- June 30, 2015: Traded Boyd Gordon to Arizona Coyotes for L Lauri Korpikoski.
- February 1, 2017: Traded Mitchell Moroz to the Arizona Coyotes for Henrik Samuelsson.
- June 24, 2017: Traded No. 82 (Cameron Crotty) pick and No. 126 (Michael Karow) to Arizona Coyotes for No. 78 (Stuart Skinner), all picks in 2017 draft.
Another team Chiarelli has used quite a lot since arriving with the Oilers? The New York Islanders. Fans may not want to see another deal between the two teams based on early returns:
- June 26, 2015: Traded No. 16 (Mathew Barzal) and No. 33 (Mitchell Stephens) to the NY Islanders for D Griffin Reinhart.
- June 22, 2017: Traded Jordan Eberle to NY Islanders for Ryan Strome.
POSSIBLE RETURN
A lot can change over a year and in the case of the New York Islanders, John Tavares is a free agent next summer. Garth Snow appears locked and loaded on getting him to re-sign, and one could guess Matt Duchene is the backup plan (although Joe Sakic is giving new meaning to the word aloof this summer).
If the situation reaches critical in Brooklyn, and the Tavares deal doesn’t happen, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins could be an option. Although Nuge isn’t in the same range as Tavares offensively, he might play a more prominent role on the power play (something RNH was very effective in when given lots of playing time). Possible returns might be youngsters like Ryan Pulock, Josh Ho-Sang or Anthony Beauvillier (remember, Edmonton will need to lose cap dollars on the deal).
ANOTHER POSSIBLE RETURN
Since the Coyotes like to do business with Peter Chiarelli, maybe there’s a fit there. I doubt Dylan Strome is leaving the desert, he is a lottery pick and Arizona is still in development mode. Christian Dvorak is an intriguing player, wonder if Arizona might be willing to move him so early in his career. One player I would love to see in Edmonton: Jakob Chychrun, a young and impressive defender.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Unless you can figure out a way to deal Andrej Sekera or Milan Lucic and email the winning idea to Peter Chiarelli, suspect Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is spending his last summer as an Oiler. Where do you think he’ll go? What would you like to see in return?
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