Oilers Cut 12; Of The Leftovers, Who Has The Best Chance of Sticking?
12 years ago
The Edmonton Oilers continued to separate the wheat from the chaff this morning, shipping 12 players off, most of them to Oklahoma City. None of the players sent out are particularly surprising – Chris VandeVelde might have been expected to stick a little longer, and Kirill Tulupov appears destined for an AHL contract, but on the whole the more interesting exercise is looking at the guys who remain rather than the guys who just got sent away.
The first thing to do is look at the players that are a lock to make the team out of training camp, to get an idea of the number of roster spots left over for the hopefuls. My list of locks goes something like this:
- Forwards (11): Belanger, Eager, Eberle, Gagner, Hall, Hemsky, Horcoff, Hordichuk, Jones, Paajarvi, Smyth
- Defense (6): Barker, Gilbert, Peckham, Smid, Sutton, Whitney
- Goal (2): Dubnyk, Khabibulin
If we accept that the Oilers will want a strong starter for Oklahoma City, that means we can assume that the demotion of Yann Danis, the only goaltender still in camp not mentioned above, is a matter of ‘when’ rather than ‘if.’ That leaves four spots for the forwards and defensemen, with a maximum of two spots going each way and the more likely outcome being three slots for the forwards and one spot for the blueliners. Naturally, injuries are going to matter here – if Eager or Gagner or Whitney isn’t ready to go for the season’s opening night, there will be a bit more wiggle room for the bubble players.
Assuming good health – in other words, just four available spots – which players will get them? Let’s consider the strengths and weaknesses of the players still on the bubble.
Forwards
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Pros:
- First overall selections pretty much always end up playing in the NHL in their first eligible seasons.
- The team has the option of sending him down after nine games if they think he needs it, but no option to recall him if he looks like he deserves it.
- As with Hall and Paajarvi last year, the Oilers undoubtedly want to get a good look at a major piece of the future in the NHL as soon as possible
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers.
- Risk of injury is higher in the NHL.
- Development may be best served in the minors
Projection: At least nine games of NHL duty (high probability).
Linus Omark
Pros:
- Played well last season after being recalled late in the season
- Offensive skill means that talent-wise, there’s no doubt this guy should be on the team
- There is at least some possibility that the Oilers lose Omark if he’s demoted after feeling that he’s earned a spot.
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers.
- Isn’t seen as a player who fits naturally into a bottom-six role
Projection: NHL regular (high probability).
Lennart Petrell
Pros:
- Superb penalty-killer – something the team lacks and desperately needs
- Plays a well-rounded game, and put up decent offensive numbers in Europe
- Age and experience means his development won’t be harmed by press-box duty.
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers.
- Not a ‘name’ player – lacks pedigree and history with the organization
Projection: 40/60 shot at the last NHL job.
Gilbert Brule
Pros:
- On a one-way, high-money contract
- Can play either center or wing
- Has significant NHL experience
- Style of play means he’s perceived as a natural fit in the bottom-six
Cons:
- Has played poorly in training camp
- Coming off a bad season
Projection: 30/70 shot at the last NHL job.
Teemu Hartikainen
Pros:
- Filled in well at the end of 2010-11
- Impressive preseason showing
- Has played on both wings in training camp
- Style of play means he’s perceived as a natural fit in the bottom-six
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers
- Age means that extended press-box duty is a real negative
Projection: 20/80 shot at the last NHL job.
Anton Lander
Pros:
- Impressive preseason showing
- Generally regarded as a future elite checker, which fits with a bottom-six role
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers
- Age means that extended press-box duty is a real negative
- Has yet to play regular-season hockeyin North America
Projection: 5/95 shot at the last NHL job.
Antti Tyrvainen
Pros:
- Adds an irritation factor otherwise lacking on the team
- Impressive preseason showing
- Style of play means he’s perceived as a natural fit in the bottom-six
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers
- Lacks the same level of talent as other options
Projection: 5/95 shot at the last NHL job.
Josh Green
Pros:
- Age and experience means his development won’t be harmed by press-box duty.
- Has significant NHL experience
Cons:
- Lacks the same level of talent as other options
- Carries the ‘minor league journeyman’ label and has failed in previous NHL attempts
Projection: Minor leaguer (high probability).
Ryan Keller
Pros:
- Age and experience means his development won’t be harmed by press-box duty.
Cons:
- Carries the ‘minor league journeyman’ label
- Lacks the same level of talent as other options
Projection: Minor leaguer (high probability).
Defense
Jeff Petry
Pros:
- Played well last season after being recalled late in the season
- Has the potential to play a top-four role on the Oilers this season
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers
- Has played unevenly in training camp
Projection: 40/60 shot at the last NHL job.
Corey Potter
Pros:
- Plays a well-rounded game
- Age and experience means his development won’t be harmed by press-box duty
- Versatility makes him a natural fit for the role of seventh defenseman
Cons:
- Lacks the upside of a player like Petry or Chorney
- Not a ‘name’ player – lacks pedigree and history with the organization
Projection: 40/60 shot at the last NHL job.
Taylor Chorney
Pros:
- Must clear waivers to be demoted
- Filled in well at the end of 2010-11
- Made major developmental strides last season
Cons:
- Not a physical player
- Lacks the versatility of Potter or high-end upside of Petry
Projection: 20/80 shot at the last NHL job.
Taylor Fedun
Pros:
- Impressive preseason showing
- Older than most rookie professionals
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers
- Lacks professional experience
- Not a ‘name’ player – lacks pedigree and history with the organization
- Age and experience mean that extended press-box duty is a real negative
Projection: Minor leaguer (high probability).
Colten Teubert
Pros:
- Adds a physical element other candidates don’t bring
- ‘Name’ player due to draft pedigree/trade value
Cons:
- Can be sent down without clearing waivers
- Injured for much of the preseason
- Age and experience mean that extended press-box duty is a real negative
Projection: Minor leaguer (high probability).
Are these rankings sensible? Chime in below with your choices for the Oilers’ final spots. For another look at today’s cuts, check out David Staples’ take at Cult of Hockey.
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