Nurse, Benning, and going long-term
6 years ago
This offseason is going to be very interesting for a variety of reasons. First off, the team is going to have to prepare for life with Connor McDavid’s new extension, which will certainly come with some cap casualties and although we don’t know for sure what the salary cap will be, we know that it will more than likely go up between three and seven million. That gives the Oilers some breathing room, they obviously need to be smart with their money.
Up front, the likes of Ryan Strome, Anton Slepyshev, and Drake Caggiula will be RFA’s while Patrick Maroon, Mark Letestu, and Mike Cammalleri will be UFAs. There will certainly be some tough decisions to make in regards to the forward group, but there is also a pair of defenders who need new deals as well.
Darnell Nurse and Matt Benning are both RFA’s come this July and while conventional wisdom would say that perhaps a bridge deal would work best in these scenarios, specifically in Benning’s case, I believe that Peter Chiarelli (or whoever happens to be GM) should be trying to go long term with these two.
DARNELL NURSE
At the beginning of the season, the consensus around Nurse was that his ceiling was a good second pair d-man. He was mean in his own end, could chip in a little offense at even strength and kill penalties when needed. But through the first third of this season, Darnell has shown that he doesn’t just have top-four potential, he already is an impact d-man.
So what is the new ceiling for the 22-year-old? I think over the next 18 months we’ll see Darnell grow into a defender who can carry a pairing on his own, and even go up against some of the elite competition in the league in a true shut-down role. It’s also fair to expect that his offensive game will continue to grow and we’ll see him contribute to more scoring chances.
With what Nurse has proven this year, it seems like a no-brainer to give him a long-term deal. But what will that deal look like?
Well, look no further than two of the Oilers other young defensemen. Oscar Klefbom and Adam Larsson. The team gave Klefbom a seven-year deal worth $4.1 million a year after just 77 games of NHL experience while Larsson got a similar deal (6x$4.1) after 128 NHL games.
Outside the Oilers, you could look at Slava Voynov who got $4.1 million for six years after 102gp and Jonas Brodin who got the same deal after 144gp.
I think it’s fair to expect that should the Oilers want to long-term, and they should, that we could be looking at an extension for Darnell for about six to eight years and worth about $4.1 million.
MATT BENNING
While Darnell Nurse’s extension seems like a no-brainer, the argument around Matt Benning is much more complex. By the end of the year, he’ll likely have more than 100 games of NHL experience and his quality of play has varied over the course of those games.
For stretches, Benning has played like an actual top-four defender, and at just 23-years-old there’s reason to believe that he can hold a spot in an NHL top-four for a long time. However, there have been moments where he’s looked like a number six d-man and has really struggled in his own end.
If the Oilers believe that Benning is already a top-four d-man and he can keep that up long term, then maybe they try to extend the St. Albert native for upwards of six or seven years.
There’s also a chance the Oilers want to see more from Benning and decide to give him a bridge deal. I think that could end up being a mistake, but if they do it could save them a little money in the short term.
For a bridge deal, I would look at something like what Tyson Barrie got in 2014 after 106 career games which was two years at $2.6 million per. Dmitry Orlov got a similar deal (two x $2.0m) after 110 games as did Matt Dumba who got 2 x $2.55m.
But what I think there’s a chance to get a real bargain in a few years if the Oilers decide to go long-term. In 2014, the Preds gave Ryan Ellis a 5-year deal at $2.5m, if the team went to Benning and offered him six years x $3.5m, would he accept it?
I think a deal like that could be a real bargain for both sides. I believe Benning is the type that would value the security and the chance to play in his hometown long term. The other bonus would be that when the deal expires, he would be 30 years old and if his play holds up, he could set himself up for another long-term deal as a UFA.
For the team, you’re assuming the risk that Benning’s play falls off and you end up with a six/seven defenseman that’s making too much money, but I think Benning is a solid NHL defenseman and the chance to lock him down long-term at a team friendly deal is something the Oilers should seriously look at.
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