ONTARIO LEAGUE BLUE
By Lowetide
8 years agoThe Ontario League (OHL) has an enormous crop of draft-eligible players ready to be selected by NHL teams in the 2016 draft. The league that has supplied legends from Orr to Gretzky to Lindros to McDavid will not produce the top pick, the second pick or (likely) the third pick. After that? Look out.
The OHL usually outproduces the QMJHL and the WHL, but last season was different. It looks like the OHL is going to make up for it this year:
- 2015 NHL draft—35 from the WHL
- 2015 NHL draft—31 from the OHL
- 2015 NHL draft—30 from the QMJHL
211 players were selected, 96 from the CHL (45 percent). The OHL has produced 40 or more in six of the last eight seasons, and this year the league should exceed 40 again. Steve Kournianos has 44 names on his top 250 prospects for the 2016 NHL draft, and five of the first 10 names off his board are from the OHL. Source
In a two-part look at the top of the OHL eligibles, let’s have a look at three outstanding defensive prospects. The Oilers pick at No. 4 overall and have to decide (if they keep the pick) between defense and forward. On blue, at the top, from Ontario:
- LD Mikhail Sergachev, Windsor Spitfires. Mobile defender with offensive acumen.
- LD Olli Juolevi, London Knights. Substantial offensive defenseman.
- LD Jakob Chychrun, Sarnia Sting. Fantastic skater, complete defender.
Chychrun appears to be the one with the widest range of skills, but offense has to be a key consideration when selecting a defensemen so early. Remember, when teams take defensive defenders this high—Luke Schenn, Griffin Reinhart—they often end up on other teams because the expectations offensively were never realistic.
EVEN-STRENGTH POINTS-PER-GAME
- Mikhail Sergachev 0.373
- Jakob Chychrun 0.339
- Olli Juolevi 0.298
Most offensive defenders score many of their points with the man advantage, but even-strength offense is a tell for all skaters. As a comparable, Aaron Ekblad posted a .362 total in his draft year—so Sergachev and Chychrun are ‘in the range’ while Juolevi trails. By the way, Darnell Nurse was .397 in his draft year
POWER-PLAY POINTS-PER-GAME
- Mikhail Sergachev 0.463
- Jakob Chychrun 0.452
- Olli Juolevi 0.421
Ekblad posted 0.534 in his draft year, and that clearance (from the three men above) is probably real in terms of expected offense. Ekblad scored 39 points as an NHL rookie and 36 points this past season—and of course he is a more complete player than at least two of the three men listed here (Chychrun’s scouting reports suggests he is also possesses the entire range of skills).
SUMMARY
The numbers say there is no Aaron Ekblad in this draft—Chychrun is the only defender among the three with a substantial defensive reputation—but the boxcars for these three prospects is interesting. None of them approach the kind of offense that would make them a lock for a top 5 overall selection alone, but all three are in the conversation for top 10 overall. In what order would you rank these defensemen? Is there one you feel is worthy of the No. 4 overall selection?
Up next: the forwards.
(Information on even-strength boxcars via OHL.Prospect.com.
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