Paging Nurse to the Top Unit

Photo credit:Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

5 years ago

In the NHL, the phrase “next man up” has been uttered or mentioned thousands of times. It is virtually impossible in a salary cap era to ensure you have enough top-end talent ready to replace one of the best players on a team when injuries occur, but teams are always hopeful the players they have are capable of filling in when needed. And often it isn’t the lack of having one player capable of stepping up. The bigger challenge is when the third pair defender has to jump up to the second unit.

Oscar Klefbom broke two fingers last night and will be out of the lineup for weeks, and could require surgery depending on what the doctor determines during the examination. That means Darnell Nurse and some other D-men will see their minutes increase. It is expected Nurse will slot in on the top pair beside Adam Larsson, and it is very possible he’ll also take Klefbom’s spot on the first unit powerplay.

Klefbom has averaged a team-high 25:25/game, and he was closer to 26 minutes/game until he was injured last night and only played 10:36. Losing Klefbom is a big blow for the Oilers. He was playing his best hockey of the season, and more accurately his best hockey of the past two seasons, before being injured. Klefbom had 3-4-7 in his previous eight games prior to breaking his finger. His confidence in the defensive and offensive zone was very noticeable, and his injury will have a significant impact on the entire defence corps.

Continuity is key for any defence pairing. Klefbom has played 88% of his 5×5 time with Larsson this season. He’s logged 577 minutes at 5×5 and played 509 with Larsson, 32 with Kris Russell, 16 with Matt Benning and the other 20 was split between Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, Kevin Gravel and Chris Wideman.

Now Larsson will need to adjust to a new partner in Nurse. The good news for them is they played 820 minutes together last season. When they were together they had solid numbers, out shooting the opposition 445-419 and outscoring them 33-25, and they did so facing a lot of top competition.

This season Nurse has been more productive offensively than Klefbom at 5×5. Nurse has produced 2-7-9 while Klefbom has 0-5-5 with both playing almost identical minutes, with 574 and 577 respectively. However, Nurse has given up more goals with a GF-GA rate of 19-25 compared to Klefbom’s 18-19. Their TOI with the Oilers top three forwards is fairly similar.

Nurse has played 199 with Leon Draisaitl, 180 with Connor McDavid and 163 with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Klefbom has skated 257 with McDavid, 204 with Draisaitl and 188 with Nugent-Hopkins.

Nurse is still young in the grand scheme of NHL defenceman, having played 228 NHL games, but in Klefbom’s absence he will need to be more consistent defensively. Nurse is still suspetible to being too aggressive and reaching or attacking, rather than sitting back and making the safe read. He’s improved on his reads, but will likely need to improve even more with Klefbom in the pressbox.

Nurse’s offence has improved and he leads Oilers defenders with four goals. He is averaging 22:05/game, almost identical to Klefbom at 5×5, while Klefbom has played almost 100 more PP minutes. We’ll get to PP minutes opportunities later.

TRICKLE DOWN EFFECT

Mar 17, 2018; Sunrise, FL, USA; Edmonton Oilers center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates his goal against the Florida Panthers with defenseman Darnell Nurse (25) in the third period at BB&T Center. Mandatory Credit: Robert Mayer-USA TODAY Sports

Having Nurse and Klefbom as the top two lefties allowed the coaches to play them equal minutes at 5×5, but I’m not sold Kris Russell can play an extra two minutes/game at 5×5 now and be as effective. The trickle down effect is the most concerning for the Oilers. Right now Russell has the second best GF% among Oilers defenceman. He has been on the ice for 18 goals and only 14 against at 5×5. Only Matt Benning is better at +6 (16-10). Russell’s CF% is 47.3%, but his GF% is great, and I’ve long hoped that one day there is a formula connecting the two. What is the value of GF compared to a SF and vice versa? I’m not sure there is one specific number but for me I’d start somewhere around 10-1 in favour of goals over shots. I came up with that number because the NHL average is around 30 shots/game and three goals/game per team. It would need refining, but I start there. Anyway, I digress.

Russell isn’t as big as Nurse and Larsson, and extra minutes could wear him out long term. I’m sure he can handle it for a few games, but not six weeks. I suspect we will see Russell move back to his natural left side and be paired with Benning, while Kevin Gravel and Chris Wideman will be the third pair. Gravel has been quite steady in the third pair, and I suspect he will see an small increase in minutes as well, most notably on the PK.

Benning has looked really good in the third pair, but early in the season, he struggled in the second pair. He has more confidence now, and he’ll likely get the first look along side Russell.

The challenge becomes how Trent Yamney deploys his defenders in matchups.

If you look at Klefbom’s top opposing forwards it is clear he faces the toughest competitions. Here’s his most common opponents:

Johnny Gaudreau (21 minutes), Sean Monahan (20) and Elias Lindholm (18).

Anze Kopitar (19), Filip Forsberg (17), William Karlsson, Reilly Smith, Jonathon Marchessault, Alex Ovechkin, Evgeny Kuznetsov, Jonathon Toews, Tyler Seguin and David Pastnak all 16 minutes.

Nurse’s most common opponents thus far were David Krejci and Jake Debrusk (18 minutes), Patrick Kane and Brandon Saad (17), Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen (15) and Gabriel Landeskog and Nicklas Backstrom (14).

Nurse will now elevate and play the top lines even more, but that means Russell/Benning will need to face the opponents Nurse used to. It will be a challenge.

It is very difficult to prepare properly for injuries to a team’s top defencemen. Every team in the league would feel the crunch, and while much of the focus will be on Nurse, I’ll be looking at the second and third pairs to see which of those four players are able to handle a bigger role. They all want the opportunity, now we’ll see if they can succeed with it.

QUICK HITS…

I’m interested to see who gets Klefbom’s minutes on the PP. Last night it was Nurse and he scored the first powerplay goal of his career in the third period. Matt Benning also produced a point assisting on Nugent-Hopkins’ second period goal.

Nurse, Benning or Chris Wideman are the options to see #1 PP time. The last few games the Oilers have been running two D-men, Nurse and Benning, on the second unit. Would they continue that with two righties in Benning and Wideman, or does it make more sense to have Benning on the top unit as a second right shot option and have Nurse with Wideman on the second unit?

Ideally, you’d want three lefts and two rights, or vice versa, on your top unit because it gives you more options. The other reason I’d consider Benning on the first unit is it would limit Nurse’s PP minutes, and allow you to play him more, theoretically, at 5×5.

Wideman is the wild card. I don’t expect him to get a look right away on the top unit, but he was a highly offensive D-man in the AHL. In Ottawa, he wasn’t getting a lot of first unit PP time with Erik Karlsson ahead of him, but I wonder if he can play well at even strength, and create some looks on the second unit if they consider promoting him.

The next six weeks will be interesting to see who, and in which situations, Ken Hitchcock and Yawney deploy the defence.

Who would you want to see on the top PP unit?

MONTH OF GIVING….

Thanks to Jnose for his awesome bid on the Manny Viveiros coaching package.

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