Penalty Differential

One seldom-looked-at statistic is penalty differential. The NHL keeps track of each penalty taken, but it also tracks how many penalties each player draws. These are important to note -– with the Oilers powerplay/penalty-kill operating at its current level (18.8% PP, 73.6% PK), roughly every five penalties should result in a goal for, and every four penalties against should result in a goal against. Thus, a player like Erik Cole in the midst of a bad offensive year is still helping the Oilers offensively -– his eight penalties taken and 20 penalties drawn means the Oilers should score four goals and allow two on special teams. Here are the totals for the rest of the Edmonton Oilers, along with the special-teams goals they’re generating: (these are penalties that result in a man advantage situation only; off-setting minor/major penalties are not included)

Erik Cole: -8/+20 = +12

Ales Hemsky: -2/+11 = +9

Andrew Cogliano: -5/+8 = +3

Shawn Horcoff: -8/+10 = +2

Robert Nilsson: -4/+6 = +2

Fernando Pisani: -2/+4 = +2

Dustin Penner: -5/+5 = Even

Kyle Brodziak: -3/+2 = -1

Sam Gagner: -8/+4 = -4

Ethan Moreau: -15/+9 = -6

Most forwards should end up better than even at this; as a rule, defencemen take far more penalties. Cole and Hemsky are doing a good job of creating powerplay opportunities, while the players ranked +2 or +3 are doing just OK. Brodziak and Penner have been poor, while Sam Gagner and Ethan Moreau have been awful. Ethan Moreau’s 15 penalties taken is fourth-worst in the league, behind Corey Perry (although Perry also draws penalties at a high rate), Daniel Carcillo, and Ryan Getzlaf (Getzlaf has 20 penalties to his name; by the numbers he’s the least disciplined forward in the league, and only one defenceman has taken more penalties than him).

Lubomir Visnovsky: -10/+9 = -1

Denis Grebeshkov: -8/+5 = -3

Ladislav Smid: -6/+3 = -3

Jason Strudwick: -3/+0 = -3

Tom Gilbert: -7/+1 = -6

Steve Staios: -12/+3 = -9

Sheldon Souray: -12/+2 = -10

As noted above, it’s very difficult for a defenceman to end up with a positive number here; Souray and Staios have been bad for this, but given their respective ice-times and opponents, I think this reflects much more on Staios than Souray. Jason Strudwick has been surprisingly good, as has Ladislav Smid; for physical players, they don’t take many bad penalties.