REACH FOR THE TOP
By Lowetide
8 years agoBob McKenzie of TSN is a central figure in the annual NHL Entry Draft. His list is the industry standard—hockey insiders tell the media insider exactly what they are thinking, and we get to have a sneak peak into what everyone is thinking. This year, there was an absence of Taylor vs. Tyler for the entire winter, but as the warmth of the sun hits Edmonton, we have an interesting twist to the 2016 plot.
- Bob McKenzie: But when 10 NHL scouts were surveyed by TSN in late January/early
February, all 10 had Matthews at No. 1. This time, in a survey of the
same 10 scouts – conducted in the run-up to Saturday’s NHL draft
lottery – two of the 10 said Laine is now No. 1 on their team’s lists.
Others suggested they had to think long and hard about their decision to
keep Matthews at No. 1. Source above.
I am always suspicious about these kinds of things, because part of the issue is no doubt because scouts have been staring at Auston Matthews for so long they have found flaws—and then stared at those flaws. Having said that—and this is the beauty of the McKenzie list—it sounds like there is in fact a closing of whatever gap existed back in January. It is also possible Matthews flagged in the second half of the year and Laine spiked.
Why is Laine still climbing? Here is one take:
I agree with that train of thought, but we should have an open mind on this and there are some things we can look at in an effort to gain a more accurate insight into what these scouts are seeing. Let’s have a look at first/second half splits.
- Auston Matthews through early November: 14gp, 10-4-14 (1.00 points-per-game)
- Auston Matthews through early January: 14gp, 10-9-19 (1.36 points-per-game)
- Auston Matthews though season’s end: 8gp, 4-9-13 (1.63 points-per-game)
- Auston Matthews full season: 36gp, 24-22-46 (1.28 points-per-game)
Matthews added three points in four playoff games. Overall, I think one can argue that Matthews—who is eight months younger than Connor McDavid—progressed handsomely during the season. His NHL equivalency (using Christian Roatis’ method) has him at 42 points—that is in the range with Taylor Hall’s draft day NHLE (46 points). A fine, fine prospect, worthy No. 1 and he did in fact get better as the season wore along. I should also mention he played in a pro league, this is bona fide production.
- Patrik Laine through early November: 12gp, 4-3-7 (.583 points-per-game)
- Patrik Laine through early January: 12gp, 4-5-9 (.750 points-per-game)
- Patrik Laine through season’s end: 22gp, 9-8-17 (.772 points-per-game)
- Patrik Laine through full season: 46gp, 17-16-33 (.717 points-per-game)
Another nice progression, lordy these are fine prospects. I am going to miss looking at these prospects and projecting them as possible Oilers, but the playoff games will be nice, too. Okay, his NHLE for the season (Sm-Liiga is not as highly regarded by the Roatis method) is 17 points. I honestly don’t see anything in these numbers that implies Laine was showing enough to be in the conversation—until we reach the playoffs.
- Patrik Laine in the playoffs: 18gp, 10-5-15 (.833)
That is some impressive progress. In 18 playoff games, which one assumes comes against tougher competition than the regular season, he has scored 10 goals already.
WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?
Intrigue, mostly. Any team taking Matthews or Laine is going to have a great day—does anyone regret drafting Taylor Hall or Tyler Seguin? This is something of an advantage for Edmonton, it appears the top two picks are very dear and if they land one of those slots then opportunities open up.
Then again, maybe they just take the pick. I think Matthews goes No. 1 overall and believe he is the best player in the draft.
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