Scouting report: Barrie

7 years ago

My Scouting Report series continues today, and the spotlight remains solely
on the biggest need for the Oilers: a right shot top-four defenceman. Today we look at the 64th pick in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft, Tyson Barrie. Barrie is an RFA, and he’s the latest young Colorado Avalanche player who seems to be in a contract impasse with management.

Barrie is coming off two productive seasons, and will be looking for a substantial raise. What is he worth salary wise, and what would it cost to acquire him?

The Basics:

Defence

Turns 25 years old in June.

5’10” and 190 pounds.

Shoots right.

RFA this summer.

Current salary: $3.2 million. (Cap hit of $2.6 million last two seasons)

CAREER STATS

Season	Team	GP	G	A	PTS	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FOW%
2011-12	COL	10	0	0	0	-2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	15	0	0
2012-13	COL	32	2	11	13	-11	10	1	5	0	0	1	1	58	3.4	0
2013-14	COL	64	13	25	38	17	20	4	10	0	0	5	3	101	12.9	0
2014-15	COL	80	12	41	53	5	26	2	16	0	0	0	0	139	8.6	0
2015-16	COL	78	13	36	49	-16	31	3	21	1	2	5	0	172	7.6	0
Career	–	264	40	113	153	-7	87	10	52	1	2	11	4	485	8.2	—

Icetime over his NHL career.

Year
GP
TOI/game
EVTOI/G
SHTOI/G
PPTOI/G

2016
78
23:11
19:33 0:30 3:07

2015
80 21:21
18:11 0:12 2:57

2014
64 18:32
15:39 0:05 2:47

2013 32 21:34 17:45 1:11 2:38

2012 10 17:38
16:27 0:00 1:10

Barrie has been very productive offensively the past two seasons. He has scored the 11th most goals, ninth most assists and seventh most points among defenders during the past two seasons. He is among the elite offensive defenders in the game.

Only Erik Karlsson (148), Brent Burns (135), Kris Letang (121), Roman Josi (116), P.K Subban (111) and Mark Giordano (104) have more points than Barrie’s 102.

He’s been durable the past two years, playing in 158 of the 164 games, and looks to be entering the prime of his career. His size is the one concern. Very few top pairing defenders are 5’10” and 190 pounds, simply because it is difficult to defend big, strong skilled forwards at that size.

INSIDE THE NUMBERS

David Johnson (hockeyanalysis on twitter) the man in charge of stats.hockeyanalysis.com took a look at Barrie’s stat lines.

When I analyze players I generally like to
look at several seasons and situations and look for trends. I also like to look
at score situations differently as players can play different roles based on
the score. While I look at corsi stats to get a grounding on the player, I
generally put more weight on goals data, especially if there are consistent
trends over multiple seasons and score situations. I also look at RelTM (or
straight Rel) stats to factor out QoT.

Here are Tyson Barrie’s relevant stats over
the last several seasons.

5v5	CF60 RelTM	CA60 RelTM	CF% RelTM	GF60 RelTM	GA60 RelTM	GF% RelTM
2013-14	7.76	-2.34	4.6	0.38	-0.25	6.6
2014-15	5.4	-4.39	4.5	1.45	0.16	13.4
2015-16	1.6	0.94	0.4	0.25	-0.06	3.4

5v5 Leading	CF60 RelTM	CA60 RelTM	CF% RelTM	GF60 RelTM	GA60 RelTM	GF% RelTM
2013-14	9.64	-4.36	6.6	-0.08	-0.26	2
2014-15	8.49	-7.48	7	1.36	0.41	11.4
2015-16	3.47	2.33	1.2	0.73	-0.29	12.9

5v5 Trailing	CF60 RelTM	CA60 RelTM	CF% RelTM	GF60 RelTM	GA60 RelTM	GF% RelTM
2013-14	3.13	-0.2	1.4	1.4	0.83	2.6
2014-15	8.58	-0.09	4.2	2.09	0.5	13.9
2015-16	-0.18	-3.84	1.7	-0.13	-0.35	2.5

5v5 Tied	CF60 RelTM	CA60 RelTM	CF% RelTM	GF60 RelTM	GA60 RelTM	GF% RelTM
2013-14	8.34	-1	4.2	-0.2	-1.07	13.5
2014-15	-0.1	-6.08	2.4	0.91	-0.33	13.7
2015-16	2.44	2.43	0.1	0.18	0.22	-0.4

Barrie very consistently has a positive impact
on GF% regardless of situation. This is largely driven by having a positive
impact on his GF%, but more often than not he also had a positive (as in
reduced) impact on goals against.

He has not generally played against the
toughest competition (Erik Johnson has), but he doesn’t play with the best players
on his team either.

Barrie has put up good 5v5 point totals for a
defenseman – 7th in pts/60 over the past 3 seasons.

He has played a fair bit on the PP with
decent, but not spectacular, offensive numbers but hasn’t had a lot of PK ice
time.

Overall he is a good offensive
defenseman who won’t hurt you defensively, but probably not a #1 guy or a
defensive shutdown guy. More of a #2 or #3 defenseman. Barrie would be a better
signing for the Oilers than Sekera was last year. Sekera is okay, but not worth
his contract in my opinion.

SCOUTING REPORT

This week’s scouting report on Barrie comes from an active NHL player, a current scout in the Western Conference and Craig Button from TSN.

Here is the player’s assessment of Barrie:

Not very big for a D-man (190) and struggles defending big, strong forwards.

Big offensive upside. Very good puckmover and excellent on the powerplay.

Risky when making plays.

Very agile on the ice. Great skater who gets himself and the team out of trouble a lot in
their defensive zone.

The scout shared these observations:

An offensive puck moving defensemen.

Strong skater with ability to escape pressure in the
defensive zone and lead the offensive attack up ice.

Can beat players in one on
one situations with hands and skill set.

Will make things happen in the
offensive zone and is a player that can quarterback a first unit power play.

Pretty good sense of when to go and jump in the rush offensively, but defensively there is some risk to
his game with his natural focus being on offence. Surround him with a stay-at-home partner.

He
is not physical, plays more of a contain defensive game, but he has an active stick
and moves his feet well to keep body position. One of the better up and coming
offensive defensemen in the league.

Button’s thoughts on Barrie:

An offense driving defenseman. Not a #1, but certainly a top 3.

Playmaker:

Excellent hands. Makes all manner
of passes and when he has puck he’s dangerous.
Very good vision
– eyes always up and alert to opportunity.
Good quickness
with respect to making opponent have to confront an offensive thrust.
He’s quick and
fast to beat pressure and get into the attack.

Excellent
sense:

Great
anticipation from anywhere on the ice to jump into attack and create chances.
Calm and poised
with puck – like he doesn’t even feel pressure of any kind.
Really deceptive
shot and it’s a threat and he uses it well to open up passing lanes & seams.
Can start rush or
join rush.

Competitor

He’s not a
shrinking violet – plays under pressure and doesn’t give in.
With game in
balance, he wants to make a difference.

Playing vs.
him

Defensively he
can be overmatched vs. size and power.
Forcing him to
play below the circles in the defensive zone takes him out of his greatest
strengths.
If you are sloppy
with the puck, he will jump the play and transition quickly.
Really alert to
opportunity and he knows the foundation of his game.

Contract

This will be a
significant factor for the team.
Excellent value
now but when that number begins to move significantly higher, the value becomes
somewhat muddied.
Adds the
offensive elements but needs support on the defensive aspects of his game.
There are no perfect
players and you like what he brings, but key is how do you support his game so
that value is enhanced.
Phil Housley was
a fantastic offensive defenseman and yet, he was constantly criticized for what
he couldn’t do. I think this is a similar narrative for Tyson.

Celebrate him for what he is and be happy
with that or don’t acquire him. I don’t think there can be any in between. A team needs to find support mechanisms for him and realize
that what he brings offensively is unique.

WRAP UP

Barrie would be a huge boost to the right side of the Oilers D corps. He’d instantly be their best offensive threat. He skates well, moves the puck quickly and accurately, but he is not a top-pairing defender in my eyes, because he isn’t great defensively. He’d be an incredibly valuable second-pair defender, who could play top minutes for short stretches.

The issue for me is what are his salary demands. He made $2 million in 2014/2015 and $3.2 million this past year for a $2.6 million cap hit. I would not pay him more than $4.5 million. I love his offensive upside, and if he is paired with Sekera or Davidson I think they’d make a solid pair, but if he wants $5.5 million I’d be leery.

Look at bluelines on the final four teams:

St.Louis cap hits: Alex Pietrangelo $6.5 million, Bouwmeester $5.4 mill and Shattenkirk $4.25 mill.
San Jose: Brent Burns $5.75 mill, Paul Martin $4.85 mill and Marc-Edouard Vlasic $4.25 mill.
Tampa Bay: Matt Carle $5.5 mill, Jason Garrison $4.6 mill, Anton Stralman and Braydon Coburn $4.5 mil. Their best D-man, Viktor Hedman, is $4 million.
Pittsburg: Kris Letang $7.25 mill, Trevor Daley $3.3 mill and Ian Cole $2.1 million. Brian Dumoulin and Olli Maatta are on ELC. Justin Schultz cap hit is $3.6 mill, but he Pens only paid around a 1/3 of that this year.

None of them have two D-men with a $5.5 million cap hit, and only the Blues have two making more than $4.9 million.

If the Oilers acquire Barrie, it would be difficult to pay him more than $4.5 million and expect to be a legit contender in the coming years.

What would it cost to acquire him? Colorado likely would want more because Edmonton is in the west, compared to trading him out east. But I’m not sold the package would have to include one of Ryan Nugent-Hopkins or Jordan Eberle.

But if it did, would you move Eberle straight up for Barrie? It is intriguing for both sides.

Looking at past history of some of the Avalanche trades, they might want two bodies instead of just one. The issue is, if they aren’t willing to pay Barrie $4.5 million, would they want Benoit Pouliot at $4 million? I’d say unlikely. So I’m not sure which forward you could package up with, for instance, Brandon Davidson to make a deal work.

I like Barrie’s skill, play making ability and his competitiveness, but I’m leery of what he might be asking for. I’ve heard rumblings he isn’t the biggest fan of Patrick Roy, and it might be as simple as wanting a different address, instead of an outrageous contract demand. The easiest way to get out of town is to ask for too much money, and that could be what is happening here.

He’d be a huge boost to the Oilers blueline, especially at the right price point.

LAST CALL

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