Scouting report: Justin Faulk

7 years ago

Our Scouting Report series continues today, and I will continue to focus on the biggest need for the Oilers; A right shot top-four defenceman. Last week we looked at Jason Demers, a potential UFA, and today we’ll look at defender Justin Faulk, who would significantly bolster the Oilers blueline, but they would need to acquire him via trade.

The Basics:

Defence

24 years old.

6’0″ and 215 pounds.

Shoots right.

UFA in summer of 2020. Has four years remaining on his deal.

Current salary: $5.5 million. (Cap hit of $4.833 milliion)

CAREER STATS

Season	Team	GP	G	A	P	+/-	PIM	PPG	PPP	SHG	SHP	GWG	OTG	S	S%	FOW%
2011-12	CAR	66	8	14	22	-16	29	5	12	0	0	2	1	101	7.9	0
2012-13	CAR	38	5	10	15	1	15	1	3	1	1	0	0	76	6.6	0
2013-14	CAR	76	5	27	32	-9	37	2	8	0	1	1	0	152	3.3	0
2014-15	CAR	82	15	34	49	-19	30	7	20	2	2	4	0	238	6.3	0
2015-16	CAR	64	16	21	37	-22	27	12	17	0	0	4	0	184	8.7	0
Career	–	326	49	106	155	-65	138	27	60	3	4	11	1	751	6.5	0

Icetime over his NHL career.

Year
GP
TOI/game
EVTOI/G
SHTOI/G
PPTOI/G

2016
64
24:02
18:56    1:53       3:12
2015
82 24:25
19:43
1:59       2:42
2014
76     23:24
18:52        2:25       2:07
2013   38     24:00     18:22        2:59       2:38
2012   66     22:50
17:59        1:49       3:02
Faulk has played top-pairing minutes since he debuted in the NHL at 19 years young. Faulk was the 37th pick in the 2010 NHL entry draft. He played one season at the University of Minnesota-Duluth and when the season ended, he signed with the Hurricanes and played 13 playoff games in the American Hockey league. He played 12 games in the AHL to start the 2011/2012 season before being recalled.
As a rookie he played mainly with Jay Harrison, who was 28 years old with only 58 games of NHL experience. He’d played 401 AHL games, so he had pro experience, but not at the NHL level. Faulk and Harrison were the top pair in Carolina in 2011/2012, and the fact Faulk wasn’t completely overwhelmed is a testament to his ability.
During the lockout shortened season he tallied 24 points in 31 games in the AHL before heading to the NHL in January. Harrison and Tim Gleason split time evenly with him.
In his third and fourth seasons he played mainly with Andrej Sekera and his possession numbers, not surprisingly, improved. He was older, but Sekera is more talented than Harrison or Gleason.
Year
GP      G-A-PTS      CF%
2016
64
   16-21-37    52.3
2015
82    15-34-49      55.1
2014
76       5-27-32       51.9
2013   38       5-10-15       49.4
2012   66     8-14-22 48.2
This past season Faulk played 55% of his EV time with Ron Hainsey, 21% with John Micheal-Liles, 13% with Jaccob Slavin, 6% with Noah Hanafin and the other 5% with Michal Jordan, Ryan Murphy and Brett Pesce. He didn’t spend much time with a proven a veteran top-pairing defender. The Canes blueline is similar to the Oilers, in terms of having a lot of youth.
He was fourth on the Hurricanes in goals and fifth in points. The Canes were 27th in GF with 196, only three behind the Oilers’ 199, but the Canes allowed 21 fewer goals than the Oilers with an equally young blueline.
INSIDE THE NUMBERS…
Darcy McLeod (@woodguy55 on twitter) from BecauseOilers.blogspot.ca took a look at Faulk’s analytics.

Quality of Competition, Defensive Partners, overall possession rate

-plays the toughest matchups on Carolina

-played mostly with Sekera in 14/15 and Hainsey in 15/16

-CF% w/ Sekera was 52.7% while team overall was 52.5%. Above team average while playing against the tougher match ups is a good result.

-CF% w/ Hainsey was 54.9% while the team was 51.9%, so +3% while playing toughest match ups is a very good result.

Offensive numbers

Shot attempts For/60 = 62.83 while team was 56.1. The team gets more shots with him on the ice despite playing against top competition.

5v5 Pts/60 – 0.93. Tied 43rd out of 197 D-men who played at least 1000 5v5 minutes in last 2 years. Good result, but not elite.

5v4 Pts/60 – 4.46. Ranked 18th out of 106 D-men who played at least 100 5v4 minutes in the last 2 years. Good result, not elite.

5v4 IPP – Powerplay individual points percentage – 75%. Highest on Carolina so you can be comfortable he is the one driving play on the powerplay.
Looks to be a good driver of offense, scoring at a reasonable rate while playing against the best. That is a quality result.

Defensive numbers

5v5 Shot attempts Against/60 = 53.63 while team was 51.8, so the team gets more shots against with him on the ice while playing against top competition. This isn’t unheard of among D-men who play against top players, but its still not great to see it. He’s a bit leaky defensively 5v5.

4v5 Short Handed Shot attempts Against/60 = 48.13 while the team was 43.4 overall, so he was a significant drag on the PK in terms of allowing shot attempts against. He probably shouldn’t be your main guy on the PK. Other CAR D-men were Hainsey 44.87, Slavin 35.17, and Pesce 32.91.

SCOUTING REPORT

This week’s scouting report on Faulk comes from a current scout, an active NHL player and Craig Button from TSN.

Here is the player’s assessment of Faulk:

Big
body (215/218lbs) who can be physical.

A legit goal scoring threat, especially on the PP. Can
see McDavid feeding him one-timers all day.

Can
be a liability defensively, makes risky plays at times.

Assistant
captain with some leadership qualities. Has no
NHL playoff experience.

The scout gave these evaluations:

“Faulk has been their best defenseman the last
couple of seasons. Usually it takes defensemen a little longer to find their way,
but he has performed above his age. He logs the most
minutes, plays against
the oppositions’ best lines every game and hasn’t been overwhelmed.

“Excellent on the PP. He has a bomb of a shot and has put up terrific offensive numbers. I would
compare him to a younger Shea Weber at this point in his career, but without as much snarl as Weber. He has grown into a young leader of this
team. Is a likeable teammate, works hard and has yet to reach his
full potential.”

Here is Button’s report:

I don’t see him as an elite #1, but as a solid #2 D-man and a player who can be a key, key contributor on the blue line.

Playmaker

With his feet & his
hands.

Can pass the puck
extremely well.
Excellent shot and deceptive
in how quick he gets it off, how hard it is and how accurate he is with
it.
Can skate the puck up
the ice and escape pressure.
He’s quick and fast
with very good agility & it affords him the opportunity to shake
opponents and create space for himself.

Excellent
sense

Vision is very good
& he can open up ice with subtle moves.
Confident & poised
with the puck.
Gets puck to dangerous
spots at right times and gets puck to teammates who can take advantage.
Uses deception and can
make plays off the fake shot.
Recognizes
opportunities to exploit situations and has a quick strike ability.

Competitor

Wants to make a
difference.
Catalyst for initiating
action.
Has a ‘daring’ about
him which is more about jamming it down your throat rather than an
arrogance.

Playing
vs. him

Tough to deter because
he can make a pass or skate with the puck or skate into the rush and get
the puck.
Defensively, you want
him to expend energy defending cycle and playing down low.
He’s too smart &
recognizes opportunities so if you are casual or careless with puck, he’s
quickly transitioning.

Great
Contract

Which enhances his
value greatly.

WRAP UP

Faulk would be a major upgrade on the Oilers’ right side. He plays a lot EV and would excel on the PP in Edmonton. He hasn’t had much offensive skill to work with in Carolina the past few years, yet he was still top-20 in PP production for D-men. His offensive numbers would improve in Edmonton, especially on the PP with Connor McDavid and company.

He isn’t tall, but he’s heavy and low to the ground. He isn’t a liability in battles along the boards and in front of the net. He’s only 24, and I suspect the risky part of his game will slowly diminish in his mid to late 20s, like we’ve seen with other offensive defensemen.

What would it cost to acquire him and why would the Hurricanes trade him?

I can tell you with certainty the Hurricanes would consider moving him for the right deal. They recognize if they want something good, an offensive centre and something else, then they need to give up something. They are high on Hanafin, Slavin and Pesce. They also have Hayden Fleury (seventh overall in 2014) in their system. Moving Faulk isn’t their first choice, but they will listen.

The Canes are looking for a scoring centre and a scoring winger. Would Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Griffen Reinhart for Faulk work? What about Jordan Eberle and Brandon Davidson?

Any deal with Faulk would have to include one of RNH or Eberle, and something else.

Faulk’s age, skillset, potential growth and four year contract have him as the #1 option I would look to acquire if I was Peter Chiarelli. It won’t be an easy trade, and it would likely cost you a few very good pieces, but I believe he’d be worth it.

SING OR SUPPORT

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Recently by Jason Gregor:

Scouting report: Justin Faulk

CAREER STATS

INSIDE THE NUMBERS…

SCOUTING REPORT

WRAP UP

SING OR SUPPORT

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