Sophomore jinx more myth than truth

How many goals can the Oilers realistically score? Last season they scored 220 good enough for 8th in the Western conference, but only 17 behind the second-place Dallas Stars. But more importantly who will score those goals.

All summer and throughout the pre-season, many pundits, fans, bloggers and analysts wondered if Sam Gagner, Andrew Cogliano and Robert Nilsson could avoid the dreaded sophomore jinx.

Last season, Gagner tallied 49 points, while Cogliano and Nilsson had 45 and 41 respectively. So what numbers would be worthy of avoiding the jinx? If you think 50 points is the magic number, then one or possibly two of the kids might be jinxed.

Most would agree that Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky and Erik Cole should all surpass the 50-point plateau. If they do, then it will be very tough for all the kids to get to 50.

In 2007–08, only the Montreal Canadiens had six or more players with 50+ points, but only five of them were forwards. Philly had six guys with 50, but one of them, Vinny Prospal, came over in a trade from Tampa Bay.

Calgary had five scorers with 50+, but only four were forwards. Ottawa had five forwards getting 50, but those four teams were the only ones to have five or more guys get 50+ points.

When you look at those numbers, the odds that the Oilers’ top-six forwards will all get 50+ points is slim.

Which leads me to the so-called Sophmore Jinx: Is it really that bad?

I decided to look at the top-50 scorers in the NHL last season to see how many of them were infected early in their careers.

Alex Oveckin:
81 GP, 52 G, 54 A, 106 PTS
82 GP, 46 G, 46 A, 92 PTS

Evgeni Malkin
78 GP, 33 G, 52 A, 85 PTS
82 GP, 47 G, 59 A, 106 PTS

Jarome Iginla
82 GP, 21 G, 29 A, 50 PTS
70 GP, 13 G, 19 A, 32 PTS
*Iginla had a bit of a setback, but rebounded to score 28 in his third year which is the fewest he has scored in a season since.

Pavel Datsyuk
70 GP, 11 G, 24 A, 35 PTS
64 GP, 12 G, 39 A, 51 PTS

Joe Thornton
55 GP, 3 G, 4 A, 7 PTS
81 GP, 16 G, 25 A, 41 PTS

Henrik Zetterberg
79 GP, 22 G, 22 A, 44 PTS
61 GP, 15 G, 28 A, 43 PTS

Vinny Lecavalier
82 GP, 13 G, 15 A, 28 PTS
80 GP, 25 G, 42 A, 67 PTS

Jason Spezza
33 GP, 7 G, 14 A, 21 PTS
78 GP, 22 G, 33 A, 55 PTS

Daniel Alfredsson
82 GP, 26 G, 35 A, 61 PTS
76 GP, 24 G, 47 A, 71 PTS

Ilya Kovalchuk
65 GP, 29 G, 22 A, 51 PTS
81 GP, 38 G, 29 A, 67 PTS

Alex Kovalev
65 GP, 20 G, 18 A, 38 PTS
76 GP, 23 G, 33 A, 56 PTS

Marian Gaborik
71 GP, 18 G, 18 A, 36 PTS
78 GP, 30 G, 37 A, 67 PTS

Mike Ribeiro
43 GP, 8 G, 10 A, 18 PTS
52 GP, 5 G, 12 A, 17 PTS
*Ribeiro was up and down between the AHL and NHL for four seasons, so he really doesn’t fit, but if you use his first two complete seasons he improves in year two.

Marty St Louis
56 GP, 3 G, 15 A, 18 PTS
78 GP, 18 G, 22 A, 40 PTS

Dany Heatley
82 GP, 26 G, 41 A, 67 PTS
77 GP, 41 G, 48 A, 89 PTS

Eric Staal
81 GP, 11 G, 20 A, 31 PTS
82 GP, 45 G, 55 A, 100 PTS
*Staal had a year in the AHL in between his two NHL season due to the lockout.

Ryan Getzlaf
57 GP, 14 G, 25 A, 39 PTS
82 GP, 25 G, 33 A, 58 PTS

Derek Roy
49 GP, 9 G, 10 A, 19 PTS
70 GP, 18 G, 28 A, 46 PTS
*Roy had a year in the AHL in between his two NHL season due to the lockout.

Jason Pominville
57 GP, 18 G, 12 A, 30 PTS
82 GP, 34 G, 34 A, 68 PTS

Mats Sundin
80 GP, 23 G, 36 A, 59 PTS
80 GP, 33 G, 43 A, 76 PTS

Shane Doan
74 GP, 7 G, 10 A, 17 PTS
63 GP, 4 G, 8 A, 12 PTS

Marc Savard
70 GP, 9 G, 36 A, 45 PTS
78 GP, 22 G, 31 A, 53 PTS

Anze Kopitar
72 GP, 20 G, 41 A, 61 PTS
82 GP, 32 G, 45 A, 77 PTS

Henrik Sedin
82 GP, 9 G, 20 A, 29 PTS
82 GP, 16 G, 20 A, 36 PTS

Mike Richards
79 GP, 11 G, 23 A, 34 PTS
59 GP, 10 G, 22 A, 32 PTS

Brenden Morrow
64 GP, 14 G, 19 A, 33 PTS
82 GP, 20 G, 24 A, 44 PTS

Daniel Sedin
75 GP, 20 G, 14 A, 34 PTS
79 GP, 9 G, 23 A, 32 PTS

Daniel Briere
64 GP, 8 G, 14 A, 22 PTS
13 GP, 1 G, 1 A, 2 PTS
*Briere played most of his next season in the AHL.

JP Dumont
79 GP, 23 G, 28 A, 51 PTS
76 GP, 23 G, 21 A, 44 PTS

Jason Arnott
78 GP, 33 G, 35 A, 68 PTS
42 GP, 15 G, 22 A, 37 PTS
*Arnott’s second season was the lockout. But he had a higher point-per-game average in the lockout season, so no jinx for him. His third season was even higher.

Sidney Crosby
81 GP, 39 G, 63 A, 102 PTS
79 GP, 36 G, 84 A, 120 PTS

Patrick Kane
82 GP, 21 G, 51 A, 72 PTS
*Only season in the NHL, so we will see if he avoids the alleged jinx.

Olli Jokinen
66 GP, 9 G, 12 A, 21 PTS
82 GP, 11 G, 10 A, 21 PTS

Vaclav Prospal
56 GP, 6 G, 19 A, 25 PTS
79 GP, 10 G, 26 A, 36 PTS

Jaromir Jagr
80 GP, 27 G, 30 A, 57 PTS
70 GP, 32 G, 37 A, 69 PTS

Paul Stastny
82 GP, 28 G, 50 A, 78 PTS
66 GP, 24 G, 47 A, 71 PTS

Scott Gomez
82 GP, 19 G, 51 A, 70 PTS
76 GP, 14 G, 49 A, 63 PTS

Ales Hemsky
59 GP, 6 G, 24 A, 30 PTS
71 GP, 12 G, 22 A, 34 PTS

Nicklas Lidstrom
80 GP, 11 G, 49 A, 60 PTS
84 GP, 7 G, 34 A, 41 PTS

Rick Nash
74 GP, 17 G, 22 A, 39 PTS
80 GP, 41 G, 16 A, 57 PTS

Tomas Plekanec
67 GP, 9 G, 20 A, 29 PTS
81 GP, 20 G, 27 A, 47 PTS

Alexander Frolov
69 GP, 21 G, 33 A, 54 PTS
82 GP, 35 G, 36 A, 71 PTS

Marian Hossa
60 GP, 15 G, 15 A, 30 PTS
78 GP, 29 G, 27 A, 56 PTS

Kristian Huselius
79 GP, 23 G, 22 A, 45 PTS
78 GP, 20 G, 23 A, 43 PTS

Brad Boyes
82 GP, 26 G, 43 A, 69 PTS
81 GP, 17 G, 29 A, 46 PTS
*The Bruins traded Boyes 60 games into his second season, and last year, in his third season, he scored 43 goals, so they might have acted a bit hastily.

Zach Parise
81 GP, 14 G, 18 A, 32 PTS
82 GP, 31 G, 31 A, 62 PTS

Daymond Langkow
79 GP, 15 G, 13 A, 28 PTS
68 GP, 8 G, 14 A, 22 PTS

Cory Stillman
74 GP, 16 G, 19 A, 35 PTS
58 GP, 6 G, 20 A, 26 PTS
*Stillman’s PPG average was .47 his first year and .44 the second. He scored .68 in his third.

Paul Kariya
47 GP, 18 G, 21 A, 39 PTS
82 GP, 50 G, 58 A, 108 PTS
*Kariya’s rookie season was the lockout year, thus, only 47 GP.

After looking at the stats from these scorers, it is interesting to note that the biggest drop-offs came from a future Hall-of-Famer, Nick Lidstrom and one of the best forwards of his era, Jarome Iginla. Lidstrom had a 19-point drop while Iginla dropped 18. It’s fair to say both have rebounded nicely. Daniel Briere had a horrible second season that saw him play mainly in the minors, while Brad Boyes had a 23-point drop off, but rebounded to score 43 goals last year.

When you look at those numbers, it’s safe to assume that the sophomore jinx is overrated. Yes, it affects a small minority, but the majority of scorers don’t seem to have major drop-offs.

The good news for Oilers’ fans is that only 17 of those players had a better first year than Sam Gagner, and outside of Thornton, they were all 19 years of age or older.

It looks like it will be harder for all three of the Kids to surpass the 50-point mark, than it will be trying to avoid the alleged sophomore jinx.

Mathieu Roy’s injury woes continue. While many have speculated he suffered a concussion, I’ve learned that Roy has damaged the tendons in his wrist and will be out ten to 14 days.  He hurt them in a fight with Andre Roy on Tuesday.

Mathieu Roy can’t get a break. He is a good soldier who has lots of character but not much luck lately. You hope for his sake that some team picks him up on waivers when the Oilers ultimately send him to Springfield.

—Listen to Gregor live on Just A Game every weekday from 3 to 6pm on the Team 1260.