The best 5 x 5 offensive teams in the NHL’s salary cap era

Last year, the Edmonton Oilers scored the third most 5×5 goals in the NHL with 193. With the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson, many wonder if the Oilers will be even more potent at 5×5. They might, but only nine times in the salary cap era has a team scored 200+ goals at 5×5.

Florida scored 218 in 2022, Toronto (210 in 2022), Seattle (209 in 2023), Minnesota (208 in 2022), Washington (208 in 2010), Tampa Bay (206 in 2019), Toronto (206 in 2019), St. Louis (200 in 2022) and Toronto (200 in 2024).

The Oilers’ 5×5 scoring has been good the past two seasons, with 193 5×5 goals in 2024 and 192 in 2023. In 2023, the Oilers scored the second-most total goals in the salary cap era, with 325, trailing only the 2022 Panthers, who scored 337.

Here is a look at the nine teams who scored 200+ goals 5×5 in the salary cap era.

The Panthers scored the most goals but had the lowest SH% but they dominated teams 5×5 that year. The 2010 Capitals were a dominant team, outscoring their opponents 208-133 at 5×5. Their opening-round loss to Montreal has to be one of the worst in NHL history as they led the series 3-1 and had outscored Montreal 19-12. In the final three games, they outshot the Habs 134-66, including 89-48 at 5×5, but only managed to score three goals. They had a 2.2SH% in the final three games, including 3.37SH% at 5×5. It was crazy how, for three games, they couldn’t beat Jaroslav Halak.

The 2019 Maple Leafs and 2022 Blues are the only teams that were outshot 5×5 but still outscored their opponents by 36 and 30 goals, respectively.

It is very realistic to think the Oilers become the 10th team in the salary cap era to score 200 goals 5×5 next season. They scored 192 in 2023 and 193 last year.

Last year, the Oilers were one of the worst-finishing teams at even strength.

The SH% average of the nine teams who scored 200+ goals was 9.83. The Oilers have been below that each of the last two seasons. If they had averaged 9.83 last year, they would have scored 215 goals.

When you consider the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson and look at the rest of the lineup, 200 goals as a team seems reachable.

Skinner had 15 goals and a 10.07SH% at 5×5 last season. The previous two seasons he scored 25 goals each year and had a 12.08SH% in 2022 and 14.71% in 2023. In his career, Skinner has a 10.6SH% at 5×5 with 254 goals. This season he will play with Leon Draisaitl or Connor McDavid, the two best centres he’s ever played with. Combine his shooting and awareness to get open with the passing ability and vision of Draisaitl and McDavid and he should easily score 20+ goals 5×5 for the seventh time in his career. He’s scored 27, 27, 25, 25, 23 and 20 so far.

Arvidsson isn’t as prolific of a scorer as Skinner. He has a career 8.85SH% at 5×5. He had three really productive seasons in a row when he scored 20, 19 and 25 goals at 5×5 with an 11.6SH%. That was five seasons ago, however, and it will be interesting to see how he rebounds after surgery last season. When he returned for the final 14 games of the regular season, he scored 6-6-12. He was adamant in his press conference after signing with the Oilers that he is fully healthy and feels the best he’s felt in years. He expects to play well and play many games.

Here’s a look at the Oilers forwards who scored at least one goal 5×5 last season.

Warren Foegele had a great year with 17 goals and a 9.5SH%. Skinner should be able to match, and likely surpass his 17 goals. Evander Kane scored 15 goals while battling not being fully healthy. He’s a high-volume shooter like Skinner, but not as good of a finisher. Kane’s career SH% at 5×5 is 8.42. If Kane isn’t in the lineup to start the season, Arvidsson should be able to fill his offensive void 5×5.

So when you look at which other Oilers can produce a few more goals 5×5, there are a few names that pop out.

Connor Brown should for sure score more than four goals. Prior to last season, his career SH% was 10.8. If you add in last season, he’s now at 9.91%, which is still double the 4.17 SH% he had last year at 5×5.
Dylan Holloway had solid production last season, and I’m looking for him to produce more this year. Even if he just maintains his pace from last season, he’d produce 11 goals in 82 games at 5×5. Could he score 13 this year? It will depend on where he plays in the lineup, but if he skates with Adam Henrique often, I think there is a good chance he can produce 13 goals 5×5.

Connor McDavid had the second-lowest 5×5 goal total of his career last year with 19. He battled a core muscle injury for much of the season, and that was the main reason he only scored 19 goals. He had 12 goals as a rookie, but only played 45 games. He was on pace for 22 goals (5×5) that year. The easiest prediction is saying McDavid will score more 5×5 goals next year. He had 19 in the 56-game 2021 season (prorates to 27), and he scored 32 in 2023.

Leon Draisaitl also had his lowest 5×5 goal total of the last six seasons with 15. He’s scored 17, 22, 23 (prorated in 2021), 26 and 28 the other five years. Him being back in the 20s at 5×5 seems very realistic.

While those two will score more, it seems unlikely Zach Hyman will score 36 goals 5×5. His previous high was 19 and his 16.98SH% also was much higher than his career average prior to last season of 9.51. Hyman is a very different player in Edmonton than he was in Toronto. Hyman has fired 572 shots in three years and scored 72 goals (12.59SH%) in 235 games, compared to 57 goals on 597 shots (9.54SH%) in 345 games.

It will be difficult to match 36 goals, as only Steven Stamkos (41 in 2012) and Auston Matthews (38 in 2023 and 2024) have scored more goals 5×5 in the salary cap era.

The Oilers blue liners have scored 27, 29 and 31 goals combined at 5×5 the past three seasons. With Evan Bouchard, Mattias Ekholm and Darnell Nurse all returning and combined they’ve produced an average of 21 goals at 5×5 the past three seasons, I see no reason why the Oilers’ blue-liners won’t be around 30 goals 5×5.

Edmonton’s forwards just need to finish a bit better than they did last season and they should reach the 200-goal plateau, and they could have a chance to push Florida for the most 5×5 goals in the salary cap era.

It’s time to dust off those clubs and hit the greens for the 7th Annual Oilersnation Golf Tournament presented by Oodle Noodle on August 30th, 2024! An 8am shotgun start at the Mill Woods Golf Club will kick off an unforgettable day of golf, laughs, and camaraderie with your fellow Nation Citizens. Whether you’re a scratch golfer or just out there to hack away and have a good time, this tournament is for everyone. Grab your buddies or sign up as a single, and let’s make this year’s Oilersnation Golf Tournament the best one yet. Don’t miss out – Be there or be square! Visit nationgear.ca to register today. See you on the course!