The Edmonton Oilers have found some consistency defensively, but you can’t say the same about their offence, special teams and goaltending. The latter three need to be more consistent, and it is quite shocking to see how inept and lifeless their offensive punch has been through six games.

Of course, they need Stuart Skinner to be more consistent, but it is noticeable how many are focused way more on his struggles, when the offence has been just as bad, and arguably worse. The Oilers have 12 goals through six games. They are tied with Nashville and San Jose for dead last in goals/game. Their power play is 30th at 6.7% (1-for-15) and has yet to look remotely dangerous on consecutive man advantages. The power play starts with the advantage of having an extra skater on the ice, but they’ve yet to be a consistent threat. Their offence hasn’t dominated a game. I’d argue Skinner kept them in the Philly game until the top line woke up with four minutes remaining.

We all know where the Oilers’ PP ranked last year and the previous five seasons, but that is irrelevant to today. Last year’s stats and production won’t win games this season. If your argument is the offence will wake up, due to recent history, then it might surprise you that you could say the same about Skinner. He had a slow start last season in his first seven starts, however, in his final 50 games, after Knoblauch arrived, he led the NHL in wins, and he was sixth in Sv% and fifth in GAA. He was seventh in save percentage differential via Clear Sight Analytics.

It seems odd to claim the offence will be fine, but Skinner has no track record, when last season, in only his second season in the NHL, he proved to be solid over the Oilers’ final 69 games.

Skinner needs to play better, but so does the offence, and I’d argue when you consider how much the top players are being paid, the responsibility to lead this team falls more on their shoulders than on the goalie who ranks only 44th in games played among active goalies. And Skinner hasn’t been as bad as some claim.

Here are Skinner’s numbers since the start of the 2022-2023 season, when he became a regular in the NHL.

He is tied for ninth in regular season games played with Jacob Markstrom and Sergei Bobrovsky at 113. Skinner and Bobrovsky have identical .908Sv%. Markstrom is at .899Sv%. Bobrovsky has a 2.70 GAA, Skinner sits at 2.73 and Markstrom is 2.86.

Among the 12 goalies with 100+ GP, Skinner’s Sv% is higher (including games this season) than Andrei Vasilevskiy (.907), Alexander Georgiev (.906), Tristan Jarry (.904), Jordan Binnington (.903) and Markstrom (.899). Only five goalies — Connor Hellebuyck (.921), Ilya Sorokin (.917), Igor Shesterkin (.915), Jake Oettinger (.914) and Jusse Saros (.912) — have a higher Sv% than Skinner.

He also ranks sixth in GAA at 2.70 in that time.

Is Skinner’s glove hand susceptible at times? Yes, we saw it on the Matt Duchene goal, but his overall game has been among the top goalies in the NHL the past two seasons. I find too often people remember the saves he didn’t make and overlook the saves he did make. I can rationalize why some view it that way, as things that irk us often remain at the forefront of our memory bank over the routine things (like a decent or even spectacular save). Try it right now. Can you remember Skinner’s best 10 saves as well as you can the 10 softest goals he allowed? For many the latter will be easier to remember, but that doesn’t mean they happen more often.

When a goalie allows what is deemed a soft goal, people get angry. When a forward misses a wide-open net or has a goalie down and out and doesn’t score, they rarely face the same intense vitriol as a goalie who allows a softie. We should at least admit most have a bias. I’m not apologizing for Skinner, he needs to make a few more saves, but the Oilers have scored a total of four goals in their four losses. If you believe Skinner needs to pitch a shutout or allow only one goal/game then we strongly disagree on what is a realistic expectation for a goalie.

We all have bias. It is difficult to overlook and right now the bias in Edmonton is that the offensive players get a free pass due to their past history, while Skinner, even though he showed last year he too is capable of being in the top five or six goalies, doesn’t get the same leeway. I’m not suggesting Skinner is on the same level as McDavid or Draisaitl, in terms of dominating their position, but he was excellent under Knoblauch last season.

Right now the offence needs to improve as much, and likely more, than Skinner does. The power play has been putrid. When we say the goalie needs to win a game, the same can be said about the power play. And so far, in a very small sample, the PP has yet to even gain momentum on a man advantage. It is capable of much more and they need to find some rhythm starting tonight.

And so is their 5×5 scoring. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Viktor Arvidsson and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins have combined for one goal 5×5. McDavid scored it. Jeff Skinner has more goals himself, two, then the rest of their top six forwards. Has Hyman, Arvidsson, RNH had a solid game yet? Has McDavid or Draisaitl played up to their capabilities in a game this season?

It is great being a sports talk radio host and columnist in a passionate hockey market. It makes the job much more enjoyable, but I also think it is important to recognize that sometimes the “mob” mentality shows up regarding player evaluations. Skinner isn’t nearly as bad as some suggest. Many only focus on Edmonton and don’t realize many other teams and goalies have similar dips. But Skinner had a very good stretch with Knoblauch last season, and I think his struggles get overblown a bit in Edmonton. The goalie position is volatile across the NHL. It is why goalie salaries are going down, as goalies are starting fewer games and many struggle with staying at the top of their game year-after-year. It is a very difficult position.

— Here is another example of how some might view the Oilers goaltending as worse than it actually is. Chris thought EDM had too many games allowing four goals. The Oilers had 25 games allowing 4+ goals, which was tied for fifth best in the NHL with LA. Only Winnipeg, Florida, Carolina and Boston had fewer.

— I spoke to Skinner about the challenging of not focusing too much on a goal he didn’t like. “It is something I’m working on. I think it is human nature to focus more on the negative. It isn’t right, but it seems that is how most of us react. You can play well for 58 minutes, and make one bad read or movement and you feel it cost your team. That is the pressure of the position, but it is also what I love about being a goalie. I like having that pressure, but you are right it is a challenge to not focus too much on one bad play and overlook all the solid ones.”

— Skinner made an adjustment mid-season last year to his glove hand. He now uses the “fingers up” style. He used to have his hand in more of a horizontal position, but now he has his hand so his fingers are pointed upwards. “There is some science to it,” said Skinner. “You are able to see and track better with your fingers up as you can visualize a bit better.”

— On the Duchene goal, he felt he should have had it. He didn’t track the puck off Duchene’s stick as well as he’d have liked. He thought it was going to go higher, but it didn’t, and that is why his glove was above the puck. Duchene has a unique release and the puck does come off his stick different than some other shooters, but Skinner said he has stopped him before, and in this case he didn’t track the puck as well as he could have.

— The Oilers had a full practice yesterday and a full morning skate today. They don’t play again until Friday and Knoblauch is happy with the added practice time. “Our power play needs to improve as does our 5×5 scoring. We have a list of things we can address and we intend to do that this week,” said Knoblauch. It is too early to panic. I believe the Oilers are a good team. They have more than enough scoring, their defensive game is solid and their goaltending is more than adequate. They just need the former and latter to get going.

— Had a great conversation with Hurricanes GM, Eric Tulsky, yesterday. He had some interesting comments regarding what might be next in the evolution of analytics. He also spoke about being a first-time GM nd what he is learning on the job. He discussed the changes they had to make to their roster this off-season and how his team has been really good the past four regular seasons, but haven’t been able to carry that into the playoffs, and what they need to change. You can listen to the full interview here. 

RNH – McDavid – Hyman
J. Skinner – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Podkolzin – Henrique – Perry
Janmark – Ryan – Brown

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Dermott
Kulak – Stecher

S. Skinner

Ty Emberson comes out and Travis Dermott draws back in. Darnell Nurse played the right side this morning, and that was more about getting some reps on that side as in the game when he plays with Dermott both of them play the right side at times. But I expect Nurse will start as the LD.

Vasily Podkolzin and Corey Perry are promoted to the third with Adam Henrique. ““It is a bit of a reward for Podkolzin and Perry. They’ve mainly been on the fourth line, but this will give them more of an opportunity,” said Knoblauch.

I thought Podkolzin played his best game of the season in Dallas. He created three or four good chances and I asked Knoblauch what he’s seen from his new winger. “I’ve seen a lot out of his game through exhibition and the regular season,”said Knoblauch. . I know he’s not on the scoresheet yet, but there’s been a lot of chances, especially when I think about the Dallas game. There was three different opportunities where he chances to drive the net and he did. He’s a big guy, skates well, protects the puck well, has a pretty good shot and I think we will see more offence from him in the future.”

Svechnikov – Aho – Jarvis
Blake – Kotkaniemi – Necas
Carrier – Staal – Martinook
Roslovic – Drury – Robinson

Slavin – Burns
Gostisbehere – Walker
Orlov – Chatfield

Andersen

Roslovic and Blake split time on the second line last game, and Roslovic actually played three more minutes more on the Kotkaniemi line during the Canes 4-3 loss to St Louis, so he could play there again tonight. Carolina has had a slow schedule to start the season. Tonight is only their fifth game. They are 2-2. They lead the NHL allowing only 23.5 shots/game while the Oilers are second allowing only 25 shots/game. The previous four games between these two teams have all been high scoring and close to blowouts.

The Oilers won 6-1 and 6-4 on home ice while Carolina won 6-3 and 7-2 at home the past two seasons.

Carolina enters playing much better on special teams. Their PP is 25% (3 -for-12) while their PK is 83.3% (3-on-18). The Oilers are an ugly 6.7% (1-for-15) on the PP and 55% on the PK (9-on-20).

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Hone ice advantage trend continues between these two, but it is a low scoring game. Edmonton wins 3-2.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilersnation watches with angst as they see another scoreless first frame.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Zach Hyman ends his goal drought and buries his first of the season.