It is stunning how many people overreact to one loss. The entire Oilers team wasn’t good enough last night in their 6-0 loss to Winnipeg. Evan Bouchard’s mishandling of the puck 70 seconds into the game that gave Mark Scheifele a breakaway from his own blueline foreshadowed how the game would go for Edmonton. They weren’t crisp. They missed passes, had too many giveaways, they passed up good shooting opportunities, they didn’t defend the middle of the ice in their own zone, and they didn’t get enough saves. The entire team laid an egg, but because Stuart Skinner got pulled, some people focus solely on him as though he was the main culprit.
Skinner didn’t like his game. “It is very frustrating to start like this,” said Skinner. “It isn’t ideal. I don’t feel great. I will go back and work on some things to get better. I think the game was a bit too quick for me. I wasn’t up to speed, and that’s on me. Maybe a bit too much aggression on my part, where I probably should have read the game a bit better. I’m going to look at the video. I made some big saves, but it doesn’t mean much when you let in five.”
Skinner made a huge save on Scheifele’s breakaway, but the team didn’t build any momentum off of it. The Oilers didn’t play well. Their best line was the third line. Their top-two lines generated no offence, passed on some of their best chances and got outscored 3-0 by the Jets’ third line.
One loss and you hear the same repeated lines about Skinner.
He isn’t good enough.
He isn’t consistent enough.
They can’t win with him.
I understand bias. We all have some, but in the case of Skinner, he has shown clear signs of improvement in his career, yet some still keep repeating the aforementioned phrases.
In his rookie season he was thrust into the starting role because Jack Campbell struggled. Skinner was decent in the regular season. He struggled in the playoffs against Vegas. It was a rough series. Then last year in the playoffs, Skinner was decent against LA and had a rough start in the first three games v. Vancouver. He got benched, but when he returned for the final two games v. the Canucks, and the third and fourth rounds, he was very solid.
Here is a snapshot of Skinner’s playoff progression.
In his first 20 playoff games he posted an .881sv% and 3.49 GAA. It was less than ideal.
But his last 15 playoff games, in higher pressure situations, his numbers improved. He posted a .914Sv% and 2.05 GAA. Sergei Bobrovsky’s final 15 playoff games last year saw him post an identical .914Sv% and a higher GAA at 2.18. The Panthers won the final two rounds with Bobrovsky. Skinner’s numbers were identical, so I’d argue the Oilers can win with him.
For some people reading this, you might be saying “small sample size.” Okay, fair point.
So let’s look at the past two regular seasons. Did you know Skinner is one of only 11 goalies who played 100+ games? Here is the list of those 11 goalies. Check where he ranks in Sv% and GAA.
Skinner is sixth in Sv% and fifth in GAA. He is the least-experienced goalie of this group. He has 124 NHL games played, compared to Sergei Bobrovsky (701), Jacob Markstrom (486), Andrei Vasilevskiy (477), Juuse Saros (350), Jordan Binnington (281), Alexandar Georgiev (255), Igor Shesterkin (214), Jake Oettinger (193) and Ilya Sorokin (192).
I’d argue Skinner’s first two seasons have been quite good. He’s gained major playoff experience, and he’s improved. His last 15 playoff games were significantly better than his first 20.
And last regular season, he showed improvement over his first season. The 32 starting goalies in the NHL averaged 32-52 starts during Skinner’s final 50 games, with Kris Knoblauch as coach.
Skinner ranked first in wins with 34. He was eighth in Sv% at .912. Markstrom, Thatcher Demko and Linus Ullmark were tied for fifth at .913Sv%. Bobrovsky was second at .917sv%. Skinner was fifth in GAA at 2.46. He also was 7th in save percentage differential courtesy of Clear Sight Analytics.
He did not have a good opening night, but neither did the entire team. Skinner has shown improvement in the regular season in his second year over his first season, and showed the same in the playoffs. That is positive improvement and development. Development doesn’t always have an upwards trajectory, especially for goalies. There will be the odd dip, or bad stretch, but if the overall numbers improve, then I view that has positive improvement. Skinner showed that in the regular season, and last year when the games were most important in two elimination games v. Vancouver and the Conference Final and Cup Final, Skinner delivered. He allowed two goals or fewer in 11 of his final 15 starts.
He showed he can steal a game. In Game 6 at home to Dallas, the Stars dominated the Oilers. The Oilers were outshot 34-10, but Skinner stood on his head and they won 2-1. If they lose that game, who knows what happens in Game 7 in Dallas.
Skinner had a rough opening game last night, just like his teammates did, and it is fair to say Skinner can play better. But it is ridiculous to claim the Oilers can’t win with Skinner or he isn’t improving, when all the data shows otherwise.
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