The Worst Offensive Season of Kurtis Foster’s Career
Kurtis Foster did not get rave reviews for his play in 2010-11. He slid down the depth chart, falling behind rookies and castoffs like Theo Peckham, Jeff Petry and Jim Vandermeer in terms of ice-time. Even that overstates the case; in terms of even-strength ice-time Foster was used just a little more than Taylor Chorney and Jason Strudwick on a per-game basis.
Does this past season reflect Foster’s real value? I have some doubts.
Hockey commentary and analysis tends to emphasize recent results over prior history. It’s the reason a player like Andrew Cogliano gets just barely more than half the money that Gilbert Brule gets despite the fact that career-wise the former has been more impressive than the latter.
I’m not sure that this uneven weighting toward recent results always gives us the best picture of what a player is going to be like going forward. I’ve always operated under the assumption that it’s better to defer to a long-term track record than a single season sample, unless there is a reason (such as serious injury) to believe a player has significantly declined in a short period of time.
That’s why I still think that Kurtis Foster could play a valuable role, either for the Edmonton Oilers or for another club if they opt to trade him. His track record is significantly better than his results in 2010-11.
Foster’s Offensive Track Record
Season | EV TOI | PP TOI | EV PTS | PP PTS | EVPTS/60 | PPPTS/60 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2005-06 | 717.93 | 327.55 | 10 | 18 | 0.84 | 3.30 |
2006-07 | 760.08 | 213.37 | 10 | 13 | 0.79 | 3.66 |
2007-08 | 735.4 | 146.32 | 9 | 10 | 0.73 | 4.10 |
2008-09 | 108.98 | 18.22 | 4 | 2 | 2.20 | 6.59 |
2009-10 | 931.35 | 273.33 | 16 | 26 | 1.03 | 5.71 |
2005-10 | 3253.74 | 978.79 | 49 | 69 | 0.90 | 4.23 |
2010-11 | 1010.7 | 284.45 | 8 | 14 | 0.47 | 2.95 |
% Difference | -52.0% | -30.3% |
The chart above shows a staggering drop in Foster’s offensive performance this season. His performance last season was a more than 50% drop-off from his average output over the preceding five seasons, and his power play offense dropped off by nearly one-third. While we might look at the power play number and chalk it up to the Oilers’ anaemic special teams, there is no similarly easy explanation for the drop in even-strength offense. Not only were the majority of Foster’s numbers recorded with the ultra-defensive Minnesota Wild, but he was given a lot of offensive zone starts this year with Edmonton.
Similarly, we can’t blame the decline in offense on Foster’s catastrophic injury in 2008-09, given that 2009-10 was the best offensive season of his career.
Obviously, offense isn’t the only part of Foster’s game that deserves scrutiny. He was at times problematic defensively this season, but I suspect teams will forgive that if he can provide above-average scoring punch on the power play and at even-strength.
Can Foster rebound? It’s difficult to know without understanding exactly why he struggled this season, but his career to date suggests that he is a much better offensive player than he showed this season, and I would guess that we will see a big spike in his scoring next season.
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